Reliability of regional climate model simulations of extremes and of long-term climate

We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Niño event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near-surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our methodology to be applied as a common test bed to different fields of research in regional climate modeling

Measurement of Spin Transfer Observables in Antiproton-Proton -> Antilambda-Lambda at 1.637 GeV/c

Spin transfer observables for the strangeness-production reaction Antiproton-Proton -> Antilambda-Lambda have been measured by the PS185 collaboration using a transversely-polarized frozen-spin target with an antiproton beam momentum of 1.637 GeV/c at the Low Energy Antiproton Ring at CERN. This measurement investigates observables for which current models of the reaction near threshold make significantly differing predictions. Those models are in good agreement with existing measurements performed with unpolarized particles in the initial state. Theoretical attention has focused on the fact that these models produce conflicting predictions for the spin-transfer observables D_{nn} and K_{nn}, which are measurable only with polarized target or beam. Results presented here for D_{nn} and K_{nn} are found to be in disagreement with predictions from existing models. These results also underscore the importance of singlet-state production at backward angles, while current models predict complete or near-complete triplet-state dominance.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figure

Experimental determination of the complete spin structure for anti-proton + proton -> anti-\Lambda + \Lambda at anti-proton beam momentum of 1.637 GeV/c

The reaction anti-proton + proton -> anti-\Lambda + \Lambda -> anti-proton + \pi^+ + proton + \pi^- has been measured with high statistics at anti-proton beam momentum of 1.637 GeV/c. The use of a transversely-polarized frozen-spin target combined with the self-analyzing property of \Lambda/anti-\Lambda decay allows access to unprecedented information on the spin structure of the interaction. The most general spin-scattering matrix can be written in terms of eleven real parameters for each bin of scattering angle, each of these parameters is determined with reasonable precision. From these results all conceivable spin-correlations are determined with inherent self-consistency. Good agreement is found with the few previously existing measurements of spin observables in anti-proton + proton -> anti-\Lambda + \Lambda near this energy. Existing theoretical models do not give good predictions for those spin-observables that had not been previously measured.Comment: To be published in Phys. Rev. C. Tables of results (i.e. Ref. 24) are available at http://www-meg.phys.cmu.edu/~bquinn/ps185_pub/results.tab 24 pages, 16 figure

Single-Pion Production in pp Collisions at 0.95 GeV/c (II)

The single-pion production reactions $pp\to d\pi^+$, $pp\to np\pi^+$ and $pp\to pp\pi^0$ were measured at a beam momentum of 0.95 GeV/c ($T_p \approx$ 400 MeV) using the short version of the COSY-TOF spectrometer. The central calorimeter provided particle identification, energy determination and neutron detection in addition to time-of-flight and angle measurements from other detector parts. Thus all pion production channels were recorded with 1-4 overconstraints. Main emphasis is put on the presentation and discussion of the $np\pi^+$ channel, since the results on the other channels have already been published previously. The total and differential cross sections obtained are compared to theoretical calculations. In contrast to the $pp\pi^0$ channel we find in the $np\pi^+$ channel a strong influence of the $\Delta$ excitation already at this energy close to threshold. In particular we find a $(3 cos^2\Theta + 1)$ dependence in the pion angular distribution, typical for a pure s-channel $\Delta$ excitation and identical to that observed in the $d\pi^+$ channel. Since the latter is understood by a s-channel resonance in the $^1D_2$ $pn$ partial wave, we discuss an analogous scenario for the $pn\pi^+$ channel

On the Production of π+π+\pi^+\pi^+ Pairs in pp Collisions at 0.8 GeV

Data accumulated recently for the exclusive measurement of the $pp\to pp\pi^+\pi^-$ reaction at a beam energy of 0.793 GeV using the COSY-TOF spectrometer have been analyzed with respect to possible events from the $pp \to nn\pi^+\pi^+$ reaction channel. The latter is expected to be the only $\pi\pi$ production channel, which contains no major contributions from resonance excitation close to threshold and hence should be a good testing ground for chiral dynamics in the $\pi\pi$ production process. No single event has been found, which meets all conditions for being a candidate for the $pp \to nn \pi^+\pi^+$ reaction. This gives an upper limit for the cross section of 0.16 $\mu$b (90% C.L.), which is more than an order of magnitude smaller than the cross sections of the other two-pion production channels at the same incident energy

A multidisciplinary approach to estimating wolf population size for long-term conservation

The wolf (Canis lupus) is among the most controversial of wildlife species. Abundance estimates are required to inform public debate and policy decisions, but obtaining them at biologically relevant scales is challenging. We developed a system for comprehensive population estimation across the Italian alpine region (100,000 km2), involving 1513 trained operators representing 160 institutions. This extensive network allowed for coordinated genetic sample collection and landscape-level spatial capture–recapture analyses that transcended administrative boundaries to produce the first estimates of key parameters for wolf population status assessment. Wolf abundance was estimated at 952 individuals (95% credible interval 816–1120) and 135 reproductive units (i.e., packs) (95% credible interval 112–165). We also estimated that mature individuals accounted for 33–45% of the entire population. The monitoring effort was spatially estimated thereby overcoming an important limitation of citizen science data. This is an important approach for promoting wolf–human coexistence based on wolf abundance monitoring and an endorsement of large-scale harmonized conservation practices

Total Cross Section of the Reaction pp \to pK^+\Lambda Close to Threshold

The energy dependence of the total cross section for the pp \to pK^+\Lambda reaction was measured in the threshold region covering the excess energy range up to 7MeV. Existing model calculations describe the slope of the measured cross sections well, but are too low by a factor of two to three in rate. The data were used for a precise determination of the beam momentum of the COSY-synchrotron.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure