A Malaria Ecology Index Predicted Spatial and Temporal Variation of Malaria Burden and Efficacy of Antimalarial Interventions Based on African Serological Data.

Reducing the global health burden of malaria is complicated by weak reporting systems for infectious diseases and a paucity of vital statistics registration. This limits our ability to predict changes in malaria health burden intensity, target antimalarial resources where needed, and identify malaria impacts in retrospective data. We refined and deployed a temporally and spatially varying Malaria Ecology Index (MEI) incorporating climatological and ecological data to estimate malaria transmission strength and validate it against cross-sectional serology data from 39,875 children from seven sub-Saharan African countries. The MEI is strongly associated with malaria burden; a 1 standard deviation higher MEI is associated with a 50-117% increase in malaria risk and a 3-5 g/dL lower level of Hg. Results show that the relationship between malaria ecology and disease burden is attenuated with sufficient coverage of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) or indoor residual spraying (IRS). Having both ITNs and IRS reduce the added risk from adverse malaria ecology conditions by half. Readily available climate and ecology data can be used to estimate the spatial and temporal variation in malaria disease burden, providing a feasible alternative to direct surveillance. This will help target resources for malaria programs in the absence of national coverage of active case detection systems, and facilitate malaria research using retrospective health data

SCAR arrow-wing active flutter suppression system

The potential performance and direct operating cost benefits of an active flutter suppression system (FSS) for the NASA arrow-wing supersonic cruise configuration were determined. A FSS designed to increase the flutter speed of the baseline airplane 20 percent. A comparison was made of the performance and direct operating cost between the FSS equipped aircraft and a previously defined configuration with structural modifications to provide the same flutter speed. Control system synthesis and evaluation indicated that a FSS could provide the increase in flutter speed without degrading airplane reliability, safety, handling qualities, or ride quality, and without increasing repeated loads or hydraulic and electrical power capacity requirements

Measuring Extinction Curves of Lensing Galaxies

We critique the method of constructing extinction curves of lensing galaxies using multiply imaged QSOs. If one of the two QSO images is lightly reddened or if the dust along both sightlines has the same properties then the method works well and produces an extinction curve for the lensing galaxy. These cases are likely rare and hard to confirm. However, if the dust along each sightline has different properties then the resulting curve is no longer a measurement of extinction. Instead, it is a measurement of the difference between two extinction curves. This "lens difference curve'' does contain information about the dust properties, but extracting a meaningful extinction curve is not possible without additional, currently unknown information. As a quantitative example, we show that the combination of two Cardelli, Clayton, & Mathis (CCM) type extinction curves having different values of R(V) will produce a CCM extinction curve with a value of R(V) which is dependent on the individual R(V) values and the ratio of V band extinctions. The resulting lens difference curve is not an average of the dust along the two sightlines. We find that lens difference curves with any value of R(V), even negative values, can be produced by a combination of two reddened sightlines with different CCM extinction curves with R(V) values consistent with Milky Way dust (2.1 < R(V) < 5.6). This may explain extreme values of R(V) inferred by this method in previous studies. But lens difference curves with more normal values of R(V) are just as likely to be composed of two dust extinction curves with R(V) values different than that of the lens difference curve. While it is not possible to determine the individual extinction curves making up a lens difference curve, there is information about a galaxy's dust contained in the lens difference curves.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figues, ApJ in pres

The nature of the red disk-like galaxies at high redshift: dust attenuation and intrinsically red stellar populations

We investigate which conditions of dust attenuation and stellar populations allow models of dusty, continuously star-forming, bulge-less disk galaxies at 0.8<z<3.2 to meet the different colour selection criteria of high-z ``red'' galaxies (e.g. Rc-K>5.3, Ic-K>4, J-K>2.3). As a main novelty, we use stellar population models that include the thermally pulsating Asymptotic Giant Branch (TP-AGB) phase of stellar evolution. The star formation rate of the models declines exponentially as a function of time, the e-folding time being longer than 3 Gyr. In addition, we use calculations of radiative transfer of the stellar and scattered radiation through different dusty interstellar media in order to explore the wide parameter space of dust attenuation. We find that synthetic disks can exhibit red optical/near-infrared colours because of reddening by dust, but only if they have been forming stars for at least about 1 Gyr. Extremely few models barely exhibit Rc-K>5.3, if the inclination i=90 deg and if the opacity 2*tauV>6. Hence, Rc-K-selected galaxies at 1<z<2 most probably are either systems with an old, passively evolving bulge or starbursts. Synthetic disks at 1<z<2 exhibit 4<Ic-K<4.8, if they are seen edge on (i.e. at i about 90 deg) and if 2*tauV>0.5. This explains the large fraction of observed, edge-on disk-like galaxies with Ks4. Finally, models with 2<z<3.2 exhibit 2.3<J-K<3, with no bias towards i about 90 deg and for a large range in opacity (e.g. 2*tauV>1 for i about 70 deg). In conclusion, red disk-like galaxies at 0.8<z<3.2 may not necessarily be dustier than nearby disk galaxies (with 0.5<2*tauV<2) and/or much older than about 1 Gyr. This result is due both to a realistic description of dust attenuation and to the emission contribution by TP-AGB stars... (Abridged)Comment: 16 pages, 8 ps figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

The Structure of a Low-Metallicity Giant Molecular Cloud Complex

To understand the impact of low metallicities on giant molecular cloud (GMC) structure, we compare far infrared dust emission, CO emission, and dynamics in the star-forming complex N83 in the Wing of the Small Magellanic Cloud. Dust emission (measured by Spitzer as part of the S3MC and SAGE-SMC surveys) probes the total gas column independent of molecular line emission and traces shielding from photodissociating radiation. We calibrate a method to estimate the dust column using only the high-resolution Spitzer data and verify that dust traces the ISM in the HI-dominated region around N83. This allows us to resolve the relative structures of H2, dust, and CO within a giant molecular cloud complex, one of the first times such a measurement has been made in a low-metallicity galaxy. Our results support the hypothesis that CO is photodissociated while H2 self-shields in the outer parts of low-metallicity GMCs, so that dust/self shielding is the primary factor determining the distribution of CO emission. Four pieces of evidence support this view. First, the CO-to-H2 conversion factor averaged over the whole cloud is very high 4-11 \times 10^21 cm^-2/(K km/s), or 20-55 times the Galactic value. Second, the CO-to-H2 conversion factor varies across the complex, with its lowest (most nearly Galactic) values near the CO peaks. Third, bright CO emission is largely confined to regions of relatively high line-of-sight extinction, A_V >~ 2 mag, in agreement with PDR models and Galactic observations. Fourth, a simple model in which CO emerges from a smaller sphere nested inside a larger cloud can roughly relate the H2 masses measured from CO kinematics and dust.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures (including appendix), accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

CAUSES OF MULTIFUNCTIONALITY: EXTERNALITIES OR POLITICAL PRESSURE

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Agri-environmental Policy in the European Union: Who's in Charge?

The EU has argued that some agricultural subsidies are needed to provide the optimal amount of externalities (both positive and negative) produced by agriculture. The argument is that agriculture is "multifunctional" and externalities such as rural development and landscape would be underproduced, while some forms of pollution (such as nitrogen runoff) would be overproduced without government intervention. Meanwhile, the United States has raised the concern that multifunctionality is primarily an argument to transfer income to producers. One way to try and determine how much of these non-commodity payments are directed to externalities and how much is intended to distribute income to producers is to analyze the variation of the programs among the different member states of the EU. We estimate the degree to which environmental characteristics, agricultural characteristics and political economy variables determine the objective and amount of funding each member states uses to address environmental externalities (both positive and negative). Results indicate that little of the variance in agri-environmental expenditure can be explained by the difference in negative externalities, neither is there clear evidence that the payments are substituting for traditional agricultural subsidies. However, demand for environmental services and political variables seem to be the driving motivators behind a country's decision to spend money on agri-environmental programs.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Agri-environmental Policy in the European Union: Who's in Charge?

European Union (EU) agri-environmental programmes (AEPs) represent a significant step in the region's efforts to decouple agricultural output from production and export subsidies. While AEPs comprise only a small share of EU agricultural support, they have two possible external impacts: 1) the composition of the EU's imports and exports may change as their producers become more market responsive; and 2) the WTO's Green Box (subsides considered minimally trade distorting and hence not disciplined) may become increasingly contentious. Our concern is with the drivers of AEPs in the EU and their implications for Canada.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Gas-Surface Dynamics and Profile Evolution during Etching of Silicon

Scattering of energetic F atoms on a fluorinated Si surface is studied by molecular beam methods. The energy transfer closely follows hard-sphere collision kinematics. Energy and angular distributions of unreacted F atoms suggest significant multiple-bounce scattering in addition to single-bounce scattering and trapping desorption. An empirical model of the atom-surface interaction dynamics is used in a Monte Carlo simulation of topography evolution during neutral beam etching of Si. Model predictions of profile phenomena are validated by experiments