A three-season comparison of match performances among selected and unselected elite youth rugby league players

This is an author's accepted manuscript of an article published in Journal of Sports Sciences, 28 February 2014, available online: http:www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02640414.2014.889838This study compared technical actions, movements, heart rates and perceptual responses of selected and unselected youth rugby league players during matches (under-15 to under-17). The players’ movements and heart rates were assessed using 5 Hz Global Positioning Systems (GPS), while their technical actions were analysed using video analysis. The maturity of each player was predicted before each season for statistical control. There were no differences (P > 0.05) between selected and unselected players in the under-15 or the under-17 age groups for any variables. However, in the under-16 group, the selected players (57.1 ± 11.9 min) played for longer than the unselected players (44.1 ± 12.3 min; P = 0.017; ES = 1.08 ± CI = 0.87), and covered more distance (5,181.0 ± 1063.5 m cf. 3942.6 ± 1,108.6m, respectively; P = 0.012; ES = 1.14 ± CI = 0.88) and high intensity distance (1,808.8 ± 369.3 m cf. 1,380.5 ± 367.7 m, respectively; P = 0.011; ES = 1.16 ± CI = 0.88). Although successful carries per minute was higher in the selected under-15 group, there were no other differences (P > 0.05) in match performance relative to playing minutes between groups. Controlling for maturity, the less mature, unselected players from the under-16 group performed more high-intensity running (P < 0.05). Our findings question the use of match- related measurements in differentiating between selected and unselected players, showing that later maturing players were unselected, even when performing greater high-intensity running during matches

The flare likelihood and region eruption forecasting (FLARECAST) project: flare forecasting in the big data & machine learning era

The European Union funded the FLARECAST project, that ran from January 2015 until February 2018. FLARECAST had a research-to-operations (R2O) focus, and accordingly introduced several innovations into the discipline of solar flare forecasting. FLARECAST innovations were: first, the treatment of hundreds of physical properties viewed as promising flare predictors on equal footing, extending multiple previous works; second, the use of fourteen (14) different machine learning techniques, also on equal footing, to optimize the immense Big Data parameter space created by these many predictors; third, the establishment of a robust, three-pronged communication effort oriented toward policy makers, space-weather stakeholders and the wider public. FLARECAST pledged to make all its data, codes and infrastructure openly available worldwide. The combined use of 170+ properties (a total of 209 predictors are now available) in multiple machine-learning algorithms, some of which were designed exclusively for the project, gave rise to changing sets of best-performing predictors for the forecasting of different flaring levels, at least for major flares. At the same time, FLARECAST reaffirmed the importance of rigorous training and testing practices to avoid overly optimistic pre-operational prediction performance. In addition, the project has (a) tested new and revisited physically intuitive flare predictors and (b) provided meaningful clues toward the transition from flares to eruptive flares, namely, events associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These leads, along with the FLARECAST data, algorithms and infrastructure, could help facilitate integrated space-weather forecasting efforts that take steps to avoid effort duplication. In spite of being one of the most intensive and systematic flare forecasting efforts to-date, FLARECAST has not managed to convincingly lift the barrier of stochasticity in solar flare occurrence and forecasting: solar flare prediction thus remains inherently probabilistic

Individual nutrition therapy and exercise regime: A controlled trial of injured, vulnerable elderly (INTERACTIVE trial)

© 2008 Thomas et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Background Proximal femoral fractures are amongst the most devastating consequences of osteoporosis and injurious accidental falls with 25–35% of patients dying in the first year post-fracture. Effective rehabilitation strategies are evolving however, despite established associations between nutrition, mobility, strength and strength-related functional outcomes; there has been only one small study with older adults immediately following fragility fracture where a combination of both exercise and nutrition have been provided. The aim of the INTERACTIVE trial is to establish whether a six month, individualised exercise and nutrition program commencing within fourteen days of surgery for proximal femur fracture, results in clinically and statistically significant improvements in physical function, body composition and quality of life at an acceptable level of cost and resource use and without increasing the burden of caregivers. Methods and Design This randomised controlled trial will be performed across two sites, a 500 bed acute hospital in Adelaide, South Australia and a 250 bed acute hospital in Sydney, New South Wales. Four hundred and sixty community-dwelling older adults aged > 70 will be recruited after suffering a proximal femoral fracture and followed into the community over a 12-month period. Participants allocated to the intervention group will receive a six month individualised care plan combining resistance training and nutrition therapy commencing within 14 days post-surgery. Outcomes will be assessed by an individual masked to treatment allocation at six and 12 months. To determine differences between the groups at the primary end-point (six months), ANCOVA or logistic regression will be used with models adjusted according to potential confounders. Discussion The INTERACTIVE trial is among the first to combine nutrition and exercise therapy as an early intervention to address the serious consequence of rapid deconditioning and weight loss and subsequent ability to regain pre-morbid function in older patients post proximal femoral fracture. The results of this trial will guide the development of more effective rehabilitation programs, which may ultimately lead to reduced health care costs, and improvements in mobility, independence and quality of life for proximal femoral fracture sufferers. Trial registration Australian Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12607000017426

Food web persistence is enhanced by non-trophic interactions.

The strength of interspecific interactions is often proposed to affect food web stability, with weaker interactions increasing the persistence of species, and food webs as a whole. However, the mechanisms that modify interaction strengths, and their effects on food web persistence are not fully understood. Using food webs containing different combinations of predator, prey, and nonprey species, we investigated how predation risk of susceptible prey is affected by the presence of species not directly trophically linked to either predators or prey. We predicted that indirect alterations to the strength of trophic interactions translate to changes in persistence time of extinction-prone species. We assembled interaction webs of protist consumers and turbellarian predators with eight different combinations of prey, predators and nonprey species, and recorded abundances for over 130 prey generations. Persistence of predation-susceptible species was increased by the presence of nonprey. Furthermore, multiple nonprey species acted synergistically to increase prey persistence, such that persistence was greater than would be predicted from the dynamics of simpler food webs. We also found evidence suggesting increased food web complexity may weaken interspecific competition, increasing persistence of poorer competitors. Our results demonstrate that persistence times in complex food webs cannot be predicted from the dynamics of simplified systems, and that species not directly involved in consumptive interactions likely play key roles in maintaining persistence. Global species diversity is currently declining at an unprecedented rate and our findings reveal that concurrent loss of species that modify trophic interactions may have unpredictable consequences for food web stability

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability