Understanding (Ir)rational Herding Online

Investigations of social influence in collective decision-making have become possible due to recent technologies and platforms that record interactions in far larger groups than could be studied before. Herding and its impact on decision-making are critical areas of practical interest and research study. However, despite theoretical work suggesting that it matters whether individuals choose who to imitate based on cues such as experience or whether they herd at random, there is little empirical analysis of this distinction. To demonstrate the distinction between what the literature calls "rational" and "irrational" herding, we use data on tens of thousands of loans from a well-established online peer-to-peer (p2p) lending platform. First, we employ an empirical measure of memory in complex systems to measure herding in lending. Then, we illustrate a network-based approach to visualize herding. Finally, we model the impact of herding on collective outcomes. Our study reveals that loan performance is not solely determined by whether the lenders engage in herding or not. Instead, the interplay between herding and the imitated lenders' prior success on the platform predicts loan outcomes. In short, herds led by expert lenders tend to pick loans that do not default. We discuss the implications of this under-explored aspect of herding for platform designers, borrowers, and lenders. Our study advances collective intelligence theories based on a case of high-stakes group decision-making online

Dynamics of CrO3–Fe2O3 catalysts during the high-temperature water-gas shift reaction: molecular structures and reactivity

A series of supported CrO3/Fe2O3 catalysts were investigated for the high-temperature water-gas shift (WGS) and reverse-WGS reactions and extensively characterized using in situ and operando IR, Raman, and XAS spectroscopy during the high-temperature WGS/RWGS reactions. The in situ spectroscopy examinations reveal that the initial oxidized catalysts contain surface dioxo (O═)2Cr6+O2 species and a bulk Fe2O3 phase containing some Cr3+ substituted into the iron oxide bulk lattice. Operando spectroscopy studies during the high-temperature WGS/RWGS reactions show that the catalyst transforms during the reaction. The crystalline Fe2O3 bulk phase becomes Fe3O4 ,and surface dioxo (O═)2Cr6+O2 species are reduced and mostly dissolve into the iron oxide bulk lattice. Consequently, the chromium–iron oxide catalyst surface is dominated by FeOx sites, but some minor reduced surface chromia sites are also retained. The Fe3–-xCrxO4 solid solution stabilizes the iron oxide phase from reducing to metallic Fe0 and imparts an enhanced surface area to the catalyst. Isotopic exchange studies with C16O2/H2 → C18O2/H2 isotopic switch directly show that the RWGS reaction proceeds via the redox mechanism and only O* sites from the surface region of the chromium–iron oxide catalysts are involved in the RWGS reaction. The number of redox O* sites was quantitatively determined with the isotope exchange measurements under appropriate WGS conditions and demonstrated that previous methods have undercounted the number of sites by nearly 1 order of magnitude. The TOF values suggest that only the redox O* sites affiliated with iron oxide are catalytic active sites for WGS/RWGS, though a carbonate oxygen exchange mechanism was demonstrated to exist, and that chromia is only a textural promoter that increases the number of catalytic active sites without any chemical promotion effect

Formulation and Testing of Paraffin-Based Solid Fuels Containing Energetic Additives for Hybrid Rockets

Many approaches have been considered in an effort to improve the regression rate of solid fuels for hybrid rocket applications. One promising method is to use a fuel with a fast burning rate such as paraffin wax; however, additional performance increases to the fuel regression rate are necessary to make the fuel a viable candidate to replace current launch propulsion systems. The addition of energetic and/or nano-sized particles is one way to increase mass-burning rates of the solid fuels and increase the overall performance of the hybrid rocket motor.1,2 Several paraffin-based fuel grains with various energetic additives (e.g., lithium aluminum hydride (LiAlH4) have been cast in an attempt to improve regression rates. There are two major advantages to introducing LiAlH4 additive into the solid fuel matrix: 1) the increased characteristic velocity, 2) decreased dependency of Isp on oxidizer-to-fuel ratio. The testing and characterization of these solid-fuel grains have shown that continued work is necessary to eliminate unburned/unreacted fuel in downstream sections of the test apparatus.3 Changes to the fuel matrix include higher melting point wax and smaller energetic additive particles. The reduction in particle size through various methods can result in more homogeneous grain structure. The higher melting point wax can serve to reduce the melt-layer thickness, allowing the LiAlH4 particles to react closer to the burning surface, thus increasing the heat feedback rate and fuel regression rate. In addition to the formulation of LiAlH4 and paraffin wax solid-fuel grains, liquid additives of triethylaluminum and diisobutylaluminum hydride will be included in this study. Another promising fuel formulation consideration is to incorporate a small percentage of RDX as an additive to paraffin. A novel casting technique will be used by dissolving RDX in a solvent to crystallize the energetic additive. After dissolving the RDX in a solvent chosen for its compatibility with both paraffin and RDX, the mixture will be combined with the melted paraffin. With the melting point of the paraffin far below the decomposition temperature of the RDX, the solvent will be boiled off, leaving the crystallized RDX embedded in the paraffin. At low percentages of RDX additive and with crystallized RDX surrounded by paraffin, the fuel grains will remain inert, maintaining a key benefit of hybrids in the safety of the solid fuel

First Results of Scanning Thermal Diffusivity Microscope (STDM) Measurements on Irradiated Monolithic and Dispersion Fuel

The thermal conductivity of the fuel material in a reactor before and during irradiation is a sensitive and fundamental parameter for thermal hydraulic calculations that are useds to correctly determine fuel heat fluxes and meat temperatures and to simulate performance of the fuel elements during operation. Several techniques have been developed to measure the thermal properties of fresh fuel to support these calculations, but it is crucial to also investigate the change of thermal properties during irradiation

Mechanical and Combustion Performance of Multi-Walled Carbon Nanotubes as an Additive to Paraffin-Based Solid Fuels for Hybrid Rockets

Paraffin-based solid fuels for hybrid rocket motor applications are recognized as a fastburning alternative to other fuel binders such as HTPB, but efforts to further improve the burning rate and mechanical properties of paraffin are still necessary. One approach that is considered in this study is to use multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNT) as an additive to paraffin wax. Carbon nanotubes provide increased electrical and thermal conductivity to the solid-fuel grains to which they are added, which can improve the mass burning rate. Furthermore, the addition of ultra-fine aluminum particles to the paraffin/MWNT fuel grains can enhance regression rate of the solid fuel and the density impulse of the hybrid rocket. The multi-walled carbon nanotubes also present the possibility of greatly improving the mechanical properties (e.g., tensile strength) of the paraffin-based solid-fuel grains. For casting these solid-fuel grains, various percentages of MWNT and aluminum particles will be added to the paraffin wax. Previous work has been published about the dispersion and mixing of carbon nanotubes.1 Another manufacturing method has been used for mixing the MWNT with a phenolic resin for ablative applications, and the manufacturing and mixing processes are well-documented in the literature.2 The cost of MWNT is a small fraction of single-walled nanotubes. This is a scale-up advantage as future applications and projects will require low cost additives to maintain cost effectiveness. Testing of the solid-fuel grains will be conducted in several steps. Dog bone samples will be cast and prepared for tensile testing. The fuel samples will also be analyzed using thermogravimetric analysis and a high-resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM). The SEM will allow for examination of the solid fuel grain for uniformity and consistency. The paraffin-based fuel grains will also be tested using two hybrid rocket test motors located at the Pennsylvania State University s High Pressure Combustion Lab

Reverse Commuting and Job Access in California: Markets, Needs and Policy Prospects

Getting to work, keeping appointments, and taking advantage of employment support services require suitable transportation. Many low-income Californians do not own cars and, outside of large metropolitan areas, public transit services are often sparse or non-existent, making it difficult for jobless individuals to make the transition from welfare-to-work. The challenges are especially great for those trying to get from central-city residences to suburban jobs, so-called reverse commuters, since public transportation services have traditionally been aligned in the opposite direction. Propelling the growth in reverse commuting has been a number of powerful megatrends. Topping the list has been decentralization of employment, spawned by such factors as cheaper real estate prices on the outskirts and telecommunication advances that have allowed suburban back-offices to easily communicate with central-city core offices. Spatial mismatches have been blamed for the persistent problem of concentrated unemployment in California’s inner cities. Those with minimal education and work skills are increasingly isolated from the many entry-level and service-sector jobs in the suburbs. Many inner-city residents with suburban jobs work late-hour shifts and on weekends, periods when many buses and trains do not operate. This study: (1) defines the existing reverse-commute marketplace in California; (2) identifies and evaluates existing public transportation services in terms of their success and responsiveness in serving reverse-commute and job-access demands; (3) examines unmet mobility needs; and (4) proposes policy initiatives and strategies that hold promise for significantly improving reverse-commute services throughout the state

Quantum-well states in ultrathin Ag(111) films deposited onto H-passivated Si(111)-(1x1) surfaces

Ag(111) films were deposited at room temperature onto H-passivated Si(111)-(1x1) substrates, and subsequently annealed at 300 C. An abrupt non-reactive Ag/Si interface is formed, and very uniform non-strained Ag(111) films of 6-12 monolayers have been grown. Angle resolved photoemission spectroscopy has been used to study the valence band electronic properties of these films. Well-defined Ag sp quantum-well states (QWS) have been observed at discrete energies between 0.5-2eV below the Fermi level, and their dispersions have been measured along the GammaK, GammaMM'and GammaL symmetry directions. QWS show a parabolic bidimensional dispersion, with in-plane effective mass of 0.38-0.50mo, along the GammaK and GammaMM' directions, whereas no dispersion has been found along the GammaL direction, indicating the low-dimensional electronic character of these states. The binding energy dependence of the QWS as a function of Ag film thickness has been analyzed in the framework of the phase accumulation model. According to this model, a reflectivity of 70% has been estimated for the Ag-sp states at the Ag/H/Si(111)-(1x1) interface.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Design and Status of RERTR Irradiation Tests in the Advanced Test Reactor

Irradiation testing of U-Mo based fuels is the central component of the Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) program fuel qualification plan. Several RERTR tests have recently been completed or are planned for irradiation in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Laboratory in Idaho Falls, ID. Four mini-plate experiments in various stages of completion are described in detail, including the irradiation test design, objectives, and irradiation conditions. Observations made during and after the in-reactor RERTR-7A experiment breach are summarized. The irradiation experiment design and planned irradiation conditions for full-size plate test are described. Progress toward element testing will be reviewed

Formulation, Casting, and Evaluation of Paraffin-Based Solid Fuels Containing Energetic and Novel Additives for Hybrid Rockets

This investigation studied the inclusion of various additives to paraffin wax for use in a hybrid rocket motor. Some of the paraffin-based fuels were doped with various percentages of LiAlH4 (up to 10%). Addition of LiAlH4 at 10% was found to increase regression rates between 7 - 10% over baseline paraffin through tests in a gaseous oxygen hybrid rocket motor. Mass burn rates for paraffin grains with 10% LiAlH4 were also higher than those of the baseline paraffin. RDX was also cast into a paraffin sample via a novel casting process which involved dissolving RDX into dimethylformamide (DMF) solvent and then drawing a vacuum on the mixture of paraffin and RDX/DMF in order to evaporate out the DMF. It was found that although all DMF was removed, the process was not conducive to generating small RDX particles. The slow boiling generated an inhomogeneous mixture of paraffin and RDX. It is likely that superheating the DMF to cause rapid boiling would likely reduce RDX particle sizes. In addition to paraffin/LiAlH4 grains, multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNT) were cast in paraffin for testing in a hybrid rocket motor, and assorted samples containing a range of MWNT percentages in paraffin were imaged using SEM. The fuel samples showed good distribution of MWNT in the paraffin matrix, but the MWNT were often agglomerated, indicating that a change to the sonication and mixing processes were required to achieve better uniformity and debundled MWNT. Fuel grains with MWNT fuel grains had slightly lower regression rate, likely due to the increased thermal conductivity to the fuel subsurface, reducing the burning surface temperature