Afrikkalaisen sikaruton taudinpurkauksen simuloidut taloudelliset vaikutukset Suomessa

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The effects of structural change in agriculture on the spread of animal disease in Finland

The structure of Finnish agricultural production has changed rapidly resulting in an increase in the average farm size and a reduction in the number of farms. Three animal diseases were used to illustrate the impacts of changing production structures and their consequences on the spread and control of disease: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), African Swine Fever (ASF) and Bluetongue (BT). The aim of this study was to assess how changes in the structure of animal production impact on animal disease risks and the economic consequences of diseases. The spread of diseases was simulated according to three predicted future production structure scenarios for 2033 and compared with reference simulations applying the production structure of the year 2009. FMD had the highest spread potential as the probability of spread and magnitude of an epidemic outbreak were the largest. ASF and BT had clearly lower spread potential and also structural change will affect them less. Spread potential is strongly dependent on how logistics will develop in relation with farm size increase. Economic losses due to FMD were similar in 2009 and 2033 simulations. Losses caused by ASF were smaller than those by FMD. In both cases distortions in the food exports were the main source of losses. Losses associated with BT were estimated to be smaller in the future.Kotieläintilojen keskikoko on kasvanut ja tilojen määrä on vähentynyt. Kehityksen voidaan arvioida jatkuvan myös tulevaisuudessa. Kolmea eläintautia, suu- ja sorkkatauti, afrikkalainen sikarutto ja sinikielitauti, käytettiin esimerkkinä siitä, kuinka muutokset kotieläintuotannon rakenteessa vaikuttavat taudin leviämiseen ja hallintaan. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli arvioida kuinka kotieläintalouden rakennemuutos vaikuttaa eläintautiriskiin ja tautien taloudellisiin vaikutuksiin. Tautien leviämistä simuloitiin kolmen vuoteen 2033 ajoittuvan tulevaisuuskenaarion mukaan ja verrattiin simulointeihin, jotka pohjautuivat kotieläintalouden rakenteeseen vuonna 2009. Suu- ja sorkkataudilla oli suurin leviämispotentiaali, koska leviämisen todennäköisyys ja epidemian koko olivat suurimmat. Afrikkalaisella sikarutolla ja sinikielitaudilla oli selvästi matalampi potentiaali ja rakennemuutos vaikuttaa niihin vähemmän. Leviämispotentiaali on voimakkaasti riippuvainen logistiikan kehityksestä tilakoon kasvuun nähden. Suu- ja sorkkataudin aiheuttamat taloudelliset menetykset olivat samaa suuruusluokkaa nyt ja tulevaisuudessa. Afrikkalaisen sikaruton aiheuttamat tappiot jäivät maltillisemmiksi. Molemmilla taudeilla elintarvikeviennin häiriintyminen aiheutti eniten tappioita. Sinikielitaudin menetysten arvioitiin olevan nykyistä vähäisemmät tulevaisuudessa.En snabb strukturförändring inom lantbruket i Finland har resulterat i större men färre gårdar. Denna utveckling förväntas fortsätta även i framtiden. Tre sjukdomar; mul- och klövsjuka, afrikansk svinpest och blåtunga, har använts som exempel för att undersöka hur strukturförändringen påverkar smittspridningen och sjukdomskontrollen i framtiden. Syftet med arbetet var att utvärdera hur strukturomvandlingen i lantbruket påverkar djursjukdomsrisken och de ekonomiska konsekvenserna av sjukdomarna. Sjukdomsspridningen simulerades enligt tre tänkta framtida produktionsstrukturer för år 2033 och jämfördes sedan med simuleringar baserade på produktionen år 2009. Mul- och klövsjuka hade den största spridningspotentialen eftersom sannolikheten för spridning och storleken av ett epidemiskt utbrott var störst. Afrikansk svinpest och blåtunga hade klart lägre spridningspotential och även strukturförändringarna kommer att påverka dem mindre. Spridningspotentialen är starkt beroende av hur logistiken utvecklas i relation till gårdsstorleken. Ekonomiska förluster på grund av mul- och klövsjuka var lika stora i simuleringarna både för år 2009 och 2033. Förluster på grund av afrikansk svinpest var mindre än de orsakade av mul- och klövsjuka. I båda fallen var förlusterna orsakade av störd livsmedelsexport den huvudsakliga orsaken till ekonomiska förluster. Förluster orsakade av blåtunga verkade vara mindre i framtiden

The posture steadiness of running target shooters of different skill levels

U ovom istraživanju cilj je istražiti odnos između: 1) pomaka središnje točke sila po potpornoj površini u stojećem stavu otvorenih očiju, u stojećem stavu zatvorenih očiju te tijekom gađanja, 2) oscilacije ciljne točke te 3) rezultata gađanja u pokretnu metu strijelaca vrlo heterogenog trenažnog iskustva u gađanju. Gađanje u pokretnu metu olimpijska je disciplina u kojoj se pokretna meta kreće na udaljenosti od 10 metara u prostoru gađanja širokom 2 metra tijekom 5 sekundi (polagano kretanje). U istraživanje je bilo uključeno 20 dobrovoljaca: šestorica su bili strijelci državnog međunarodnog ranga, šestorica strijelci regionalnog ranga, a osmorica ispitanika bili su lovci koji nisu bili uključeni u sustavni trening gađanja. Testiranje se sastojalo od mjerenja oscilacija središnje točke sila (OCPF od engl. oscilations of the centre point of forces) u laboratorijskim uvjetima na platformi za mjerenje sila dok su ispitanici stajali prvo otvorenih očiju, zatim zatvorenih očiju_ te tijekom gađanja. Središnja točka sila definirana je kao rezultanta svih sila reakcije koje su primijenjene na potpornu površinu preko stopala ispitanika u stojećem položaju. Optički elektronički uređaj (Noptel ST-2000) koristio se za bilježenje rezultata gađanja i oscilacije ciljne točke oko mete. Rezultat gađanja u pokretnu metu bio je bolji, oscilacije ciljanja manje, a OCPF manji u treniranih strijelaca, nego u slabije treniranih lovaca. U normalnom uspravnom položaju otvorenih i zatvorenih očiju trenirani su strijelci imali manji OCPF. Povećanje OCPF-a iz uspravnog stojećeg položaja otvorenih očiju glede uvjeta gađanja bilo je manje u treniranih strijelaca nego u lovaca. Kada su svi ispitanici bili tretirani kao jedna skupina rezultat je bio značajno objasnjen (74.8%) parametrima: vertikalne oscilacije gađanja, OCPF-a tijekom gađanja, razlike OCPF-a između stajanja otvorenih očiju i tijekom gađanja te stasom. Utvrđeno je da su pokreti puškom tijekom gađanja (oscilacija gađanja, vizualna povratna sprega) i kontrola uspravnog položaja tijela tijekom gađanja (OCPF, proprioceptivna i vestibularna povratna sprega) relativno nezavisni čimbenici koji dobro objašnjavaju rezultate gađanja strijelaca s heterogenim trenažnim stažom.The present study was designed to investigate the interrelationships between 1) the movement of the centre point of forces in a supporting surface while standing with the eyes open, closed and during aiming, 2) the oscillation of the aiming point and 3) the shooting score among running target shooters with heterogeneous a shooting training background. Running target shooting is an Olympic event in which a moving target runs at a distance of 10 m through a 2 m-wide shooting area in 5 seconds (slow run). Twenty male subjects volunteered for the study: 6 were national and international level running target shooters, 6 regional level running target shooters and 8 hunters with no systematic shooting training background. The testing protocol consisted of measurements of oscillations of the centre point of forces (OCPF) in laboratory conditions on a force platform while the subjects stood with eyes open and closed, and during shooting. The (CPF) was defined as the result of all of the reaction forces applied to the supporting surface by a standing subject trough his or her feet. An optoelectronic device (Noptel ST-2000) was used to register the shooting score and oscillation of the aiming point around the target. The running target score was found to be better, the oscillation of aiming smaller and OCPF less among the trained shooters than among the less trained hunters. In the normal upright standing position with eyes open and closed the trained shooters also produced smaller OCPF. The increase in OCPF from standing with the eyes open to the aiming condition was smaller for the trained shooters than for the hunters. When all the subjects were treated as a single group the score was strongly explained (74.8%) by the vertical oscillation of aiming, OCPF during aiming, the difference in OCPF between standing with the eyes open and during aiming, and stature. It was concluded that the movements of the rifle during aiming (oscillation of aiming, visual feedback) and the control of the body\u27s upright position during aiming (OCPF, proprioceptive and vestibular feedback) are relatively independent factors explaining well the shooting score among shooters with heterogeneous shooting training backgrounds