Constrained Mathematics for Calculating Logical Safety and Reliability Probabilities with Uncertain Inputs

Calculating safety and reliability probabilities with functions of uncertain variables can yield incorrect or misleading results if some precautions are not taken. One important consideration is the application of constrained mathematics for calculating probabilities for functions that contain repeated variables. This paper includes a description of the problem and develops a methodology for obtaining an accurate solution

Estimation of the Optimal Statistical Quality Control Sampling Time Intervals Using a Residual Risk Measure

Background: An open problem in clinical chemistry is the estimation of the optimal sampling time intervals for the application of statistical quality control (QC) procedures that are based on the measurement of control materials. This is a probabilistic risk assessment problem that requires reliability analysis of the analytical system, and the estimation of the risk caused by the measurement error. Methodology/Principal Findings: Assuming that the states of the analytical system are the reliability state, the maintenance state, the critical-failure modes and their combinations, we can define risk functions based on the mean time of the states, their measurement error and the medically acceptable measurement error. Consequently, a residual risk measure rr can be defined for each sampling time interval. The rr depends on the state probability vectors of the analytical system, the state transition probability matrices before and after each application of the QC procedure and the state mean time matrices. As optimal sampling time intervals can be defined those minimizing a QC related cost measure while the rr is acceptable. I developed an algorithm that estimates the rr for any QC sampling time interval of a QC procedure applied to analytical systems with an arbitrary number of critical-failure modes, assuming any failure time and measurement error probability density function for each mode. Furthermore, given the acceptable rr, it can estimate the optimal QC sampling time intervals

Investor heterogeneity and the cross-section of U.K. investment trust performance

We use the upper and lower bounds derived by Ferson and Lin (2010) to examine the impact of investor heterogeneity on the performance of U.K. investment trusts relative to alternative linear factor models. We find using the upper bounds that investor heterogeneity has an important impact for nearly all investment trusts. The upper bounds are large in economic terms and significantly different from zero. We find no evidence of any trusts where all investors agree on the sign of performance beyond what we expect by chance. Using the lower bound, we find that trusts with a larger disagreement about trust performance have a weaker relation between the trust premium and past Net Asset Value (NAV) performance

Daycare attendance and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

The relationship between daycare/preschool (‘daycare’) attendance and the risk of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia was evaluated in the Northern California Childhood Leukaemia Study. Incident cases (age 1–14 years) were rapidly ascertained during 1995–1999. Population-based controls were randomly selected from the California birth registry, individually matched on date of birth, gender, race, Hispanicity, and residence, resulting in a total of 140 case–controls pairs. Fewer cases (n=92, 66%) attended daycare than controls (n=103, 74%). Children who had more total child–hours had a significantly reduced risk of ALL. The odds ratio associated with each thousand child–hours was 0.991 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.984–0.999), which means that a child with 50 thousand child–hours (who may have, for example, attended a daycare with 15 other children, 25 h per week, for a total duration of 30.65 months) would have an odds ratio of (0.991)50=0.64 (95% CI: 0.45, 0.95), compared to children who never attended daycare. Besides, controls started daycare at a younger age, attended daycare for longer duration, remained in daycare for more hours, and were exposed to more children at each daycare. These findings support the hypothesis that delayed exposure to common infections plays an important role in the aetiology of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, and suggest that extensive contact with other children in a daycare setting is associated with a reduced risk of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

Evaluation of alternative respiratory syndromes for specific syndromic surveillance of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus: a time series analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Syndromic surveillance is increasingly being evaluated for its potential for early warning of increased disease activity in the population. However, interpretation is hampered by the difficulty of attributing a causative pathogen. We described the temporal relationship between laboratory counts of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) detection and alternative groupings of Emergency Department (ED) respiratory diagnoses.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>ED and laboratory data were obtained for the south-eastern area of Sydney, NSW for the period 1 June 2001 - 1 December 2006. Counts of ED visits and laboratory confirmed positive RSV and influenza cases were aggregated by week. Semi-parametric generalized additive models (GAM) were used to determine the association between the incidence of RSV and influenza and the incidence of respiratory syndrome ED presentations while controlling for temporal confounders.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For every additional RSV laboratory count, ED diagnoses of bronchiolitis increased by 3.1% (95%CI: 2.7%-3.5%) in the same week. For every additional influenza laboratory count, ED diagnoses of influenza-like illness increased by 4.7% (95%CI: 4.2%-5.2%) one week earlier.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this study, large increases in ED diagnoses of bronchiolitis and influenza-like illness were independent and proxy indicators for RSV and influenza activity, respectively.</p

Investor Sentiment for Real Assets: The Case of Dry Bulk Shipping Market*

We investigate the role of sentiment and its implications for real assets. Using shipping sentiment proxies that capture market expectations, valuation, and liquidity, we construct sentiment indices for the dry bulk shipping market. Evidence suggests that sentiment affects the monthly returns of real assets. The empirical findings also show that market sentiment serves as a contrarian indicator for future cycle phases in all sectors. Furthermore, a sentiment-based trading simulation exercise on the sale and purchase of vessels shows that investors can benefit from higher returns compared to the buy-and-hold benchmark, while partially offsetting the highly volatile nature of the shipping industry

Reliability of medical students' vaccination histories for immunisable diseases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Medical students come into contact with infectious diseases early on their career. Immunity against vaccine-preventable diseases is therefore vital for both medical students and the patients with whom they come into contact.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The purpose of this study was to compare the medical history and serological status of selected vaccine-preventable diseases of medical students in Germany.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall correlation between self-reported medical history statements and serological findings among the 150 students studied was 86.7 %, 66.7 %, 78 % and 93.3 % for measles, mumps, rubella and varicella, conditional on sufficient immunity being achieved after one vaccination. Although 81.2 % of the students' medical history data correlated with serological findings, significant gaps in immunity were found.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings indicate that medical history alone is not a reliable screening tool for immunity against the vaccine-preventable diseases studied.</p

Disease burden and related medical costs of rotavirus infections in Taiwan

BACKGROUND: The disease burden and associated medical costs of rotavirus infections in inpatient and outpatient sectors in Taiwan were examined in anticipation of the availability of new rotavirus vaccines. METHODS: The yearly national case number and medical costs for all for inpatients and outpatients with acute gastroenteritis (AGE) were extracted from the Bureau of National Health Insurance database in Taiwan according to ICD-9-CM codes. A retrospective study was also performed using records of children with AGE seen at three hospitals in Taiwan in 2001 to identify laboratory confirmed rotavirus infection cases. The annual incidence and related medical costs of AGE due to rotavirus infection were then estimated. RESULTS: Children <5 years old comprised 83.6% of inpatient and 62.0% of outpatient pediatric AGE cases in Taiwan in 2001. Rotavirus was the most common agent detected among AGE patients in this age group in the three hospitals, and was detected in 32.9% (221/672) of inpatient and 24% (23/96) of outpatient stool specimens tested for microbial etiologies. An estimated 277,400 to 624,892 cases of rotavirus infections sought medical care in Taiwan in 2001, equaling one in 2 to 5 children <5 years old required medical care due to rotavirus infection. The incidence of hospitalization due to rotavirus infections was 1,528–1,997/100,000 for children <5 years old. The total associated medical costs due to rotavirus infection were estimated at US $10–16 millions in Taiwan in 2001. Although the per-capita medical cost of rotavirus infection was lower in Taiwan than in the United States or Hong Kong, the personal economic burden was similar among the three places when normalized for gross national incomes per capita. CONCLUSION: Infections caused by rotavirus constitute an important human and economic burden among young children in Taiwan. A safe and effective vaccine is urgently needed