Artifacts with uneven sampling of red noise

The vast majority of sampling systems operate in a standard way: at each tick of a fixed-frequency master clock a digitizer reads out a voltage that corresponds to the value of some physical quantity and translates it into a bit pattern that is either transmitted, stored, or processed right away. Thus signal sampling at evenly spaced time intervals is the rule: however this is not always the case, and uneven sampling is sometimes unavoidable. While periodic or quasi-periodic uneven sampling of a deterministic signal can reasonably be expected to produce artifacts, it is much less obvious that the same happens with noise: here I show that this is indeed the case only for long-memory noise processes, i.e., power-law noises $1/f^\alpha$ with $\alpha > 2$. The resulting artifacts are usually a nuisance although they can be eliminated with a proper processing of the signal samples, but they could also be turned to advantage and used to encode information.Comment: 5 figure

The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures : a panel data approach

This paper examines the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis using a panel of twenty-four commodity prices from 1900 to 2010. The modelling approach stems from the need to meet two key concerns: (i) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among commodity prices; and (ii) the identification of potential structural breaks. To address these concerns, the Hadri and Rao (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 70:245–269, 2008) test is employed. The findings suggest that all commodity prices exhibit a structural break whose location differs across series, and that support for the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis is mixed. Once the breaks are removed from the underlying series, the persistence of commodity price shocks is shorter than that obtained in other studies using alternative methodologies.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Beyond the black box: Promoting mathematical collaborations for elucidating interactions in soil ecology

© 2019 The Authors. Understanding soil systems is critical because they form the structural and nutritional foundation for plants and thus every terrestrial habitat and agricultural system. In this paper, we encourage increased use of mathematical models to drive forward understanding of interactions in soil ecological systems. We discuss several distinctive features of soil ecosystems and empirical studies of them. We explore some perceptions that have previously deterred more extensive use of models in soil ecology and some advances that have already been made using models to elucidate soil ecological interactions. We provide examples where mathematical models have been used to test the plausibility of hypothesized mechanisms, to explore systems where experimental manipulations are currently impossible, or to determine the most important variables to measure in experimental and natural systems. To aid in the development of theory in this field, we present a table describing major soil ecology topics, the theory previously used, and providing key terms for theoretical approaches that could potentially address them. We then provide examples from the table that may either contribute to important incremental developments in soil science or potentially revolutionize our understanding of plant-soil systems. We challenge scientists and mathematicians to push theoretical explorations in soil systems further and highlight three major areas for the development of mathematical models in soil ecology: Theory spanning scales and ecological hierarchies, processes, and evolution

Economic Returns to Investment in AIDS Treatment in Low and Middle Income Countries

Since the early 2000s, aid organizations and developing country governments have invested heavily in AIDS treatment. By 2010, more than five million people began receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) – yet each year, 2.7 million people are becoming newly infected and another two million are dying without ever having received treatment. As the need for treatment grows without commensurate increase in the amount of available resources, it is critical to assess the health and economic gains being realized from increasingly large investments in ART. This study estimates total program costs and compares them with selected economic benefits of ART, for the current cohort of patients whose treatment is cofinanced by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. At end 2011, 3.5 million patients in low and middle income countries will be receiving ART through treatment programs cofinanced by the Global Fund. Using 2009 ART prices and program costs, we estimate that the discounted resource needs required for maintaining this cohort are $14.2 billion for the period 2011–2020. This investment is expected to save 18.5 million life-years and return$12 to $34 billion through increased labor productivity, averted orphan care, and deferred medical treatment for opportunistic infections and end-of-life care. Under alternative assumptions regarding the labor productivity effects of HIV infection, AIDS disease, and ART, the monetary benefits range from 81 percent to 287 percent of program costs over the same period. These results suggest that, in addition to the large health gains generated, the economic benefits of treatment will substantially offset, and likely exceed, program costs within 10 years of investment

Can urban coffee consumption help predict US inflation?

Motivated by the importance of coffee to Americans and the significance of the coffee subsector to the US economy, we pursue three notable innovations. First, we augment the traditional Phillips curve model with the coffee price as a predictor, and show that the resulting model outperforms the traditional variant in both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of US inflation. Second, we demonstrate the need to account for the inherent statistical features of predictors such as persistence, endogeneity, and conditional heteroskedasticity effects when dealing with US inflation. Consequently, we offer robust illustrations to show that the choice of estimator matters for improved US inflation forecasts. Third, the proposed augmented Phillips curve also outperforms time series models such as autoregressive integrated moving average and the fractionally integrated version for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. Our results show that augmenting the traditional Phillips curve with the urban coffee price will produce better forecast results for US inflation only when the statistical effects are captured in the estimation process. Our results are robust to alternative measures of inflation, different data frequencies, higher order moments, multiple data samples and multiple forecast horizons