Mark-Recapture and Stochastic Population Models for Polar Bears of the High Arctic

We used mark-recapture data and population viability analysis (PVA) to estimate demographic parameters, abundance, and harvest risks for two adjacent populations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) inhabiting Lancaster Sound and Norwegian Bay, Canada. Analyses were based on data from 1871 bears that were uniquely marked during the period 1972–97. Our best-fitting mark-recapture model specified sex and age effects on probabilities of survival and an effect of prior recapture (dependence) on capture probability. The most parsimonious solution in our analysis of survival was to assume the same rate for the Lancaster Sound and Norwegian Bay populations. Total (harvested) annual survival rates (mean ± 1 SE) for females included: 0.749 ± 0.105 (cubs), 0.879 ± 0.050 (ages 1–4), 0.936 ± 0.019 (ages 5– 20), and 0.758 ± 0.054 (ages 21+). Mean litter size was 1.69 ± 0.01 cubs for females of Lancaster Sound and 1.71 ± 0.08 cubs for females of Norwegian Bay. By age six, on average 0.31 ± 0.21 females of Lancaster Sound were producing litters (first age of reproduction was five years); however, females of Norwegian Bay did not reproduce until age seven or more. Total abundance (1995–97) averaged 2541 ± 391 bears in Lancaster Sound and 203 ± 44 bears in Norwegian Bay. The finite rate of increase (lambda) during the study period was estimated to be 1.001 ± 0.013 for bears of Lancaster Sound and 0.981 ± 0.027 for bears of Norwegian Bay. We incorporated demographic parameters into a harvest-explicit PVA to model short-term (15 yr) probabilities of overharvesting (i.e., 1997–2012). Our harvest simulations suggest that current levels of kill are approaching and perhaps exceeding the sustainable yield in both populations.Nous avons recouru aux données obtenues par marquage et recapture ainsi qu’aux analyses de viabilité de population pour estimer les paramètres démographiques, l’abondance et les risques liés à la récolte de deux populations adjacentes d’ours polaires (Ursus maritimus) évoluant dans le détroit de Lancaster et la baie Norwegian, au Canada. Les analyses reposaient sur les données relatives à 1 871 ours marqués de manière unique pendant la période allant de 1972 à 1997. Notre modèle de marquage et recapture le mieux ajusté tenait compte des effets du sexe et de l’âge sur les probabilités de survie, ainsi que de l’effet d’une recapture antérieure (dépendance) sur la probabilité de capture. La solution la plus parcimonieuse de notre analyse de survie consistait à assumer le même taux pour les populations du détroit de Lancaster et de la baie Norwegian. Les taux totaux de survie annuels (récoltés) (moyenne ± 1 SE) chez les femelles s’établissaient comme suit : 0,749 ± 0,105 (oursons), 0,879 ± 0,050 (âges 1-4), 0,936 ± 0,019 (âges 5-20), et 0,758 ± 0,054 (âges 21+). La grosseur moyenne des portées était de 1,69 ± 0,01 ourson dans le cas des femelles du détroit de Lancaster, et de 1,71 ± 0,08 ourson dans le cas des femelles de la baie Norwegian. Avant l’âge de six ans, en moyenne 0,31 ± 0,21 femelle du détroit de Lancaster produisait des portées (l’âge de reproduction le plus jeune était de cinq ans); cependant, les femelles de la baie Norwegian ne se reproduisaient pas avant l’âge de sept ans ou plus. L’abondance totale (1995-1997) atteignait en moyenne 2 541 ± 391 ours au détroit de Lancaster, et 203 ± 44 ours dans la baie Norwegian. Le taux fini d’augmentation (lambda) pendant la période d’étude était estimé à 1,001 ± 0,013 dans le cas des ours du détroit de Lancaster, et de 0,981 ± 0,027 dans le cas des ours de la baie Norwegian. Nous avons intégré les paramètres démographiques à une analyse de viabilité de population de récolte explicite pour modéliser les probabilités à court terme (15 ans) de surrécolte (i.e. 1997-2012). Nos simulations de récolte laissent croire que les taux d’ours tués approchent et peuvent même dépasser le rendement admissible des deux populations

Determination of yolk contamination in liquid egg white using Raman spectroscopy

Purified egg white is an important ingredient in a number of baked and confectionary foods because of its foaming properties. However, yolk contamination in amounts as low as 0.01% can impede the foaming ability of egg white. In this study, we used Raman spectroscopy to evaluate the hypothesis that yolk contamination in egg white could be detected based on its molecular optical properties. Yolk contaminated egg white samples (n = 115) with contamination levels ranging from 0% to 0.25% (on weight basis) were prepared. The samples were excited with a 785 nm laser and Raman spectra from 250 to 3,200 cm−1 were recorded. The Raman spectra were baseline corrected using an optimized piecewise cubic interpolation on each spectrum and then normalized with a standard normal variate transformation. Samples were randomly divided into calibration (n = 77) and validation (n = 38) data sets. A partial least squares regression (PLSR) model was developed to predict yolk contamination levels, based on the Raman spectral fingerprint. Raman spectral peaks, in the spectral region of 1,080 and 1,666 cm−1, had the largest influence on detecting yolk contamination in egg white. The PLSR model was able to correctly predict yolk contamination levels with an R2 = 0.90 in the validation data set. These results demonstrate the capability of Raman spectroscopy for detection of yolk contamination at very low levels in egg white and present a strong case for development of an on-line system to be deployed in egg processing plants

Population Viability of Barren-ground Grizzly Bears in Nunavut and the Northwest Territories

We modelled probabilities of population decline as a function of annual kill for a population of barren-ground grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) inhabiting Nunavut and the Northwest Territories, Canada. Our results suggest that the population is at risk of decline, especially if annual removal rates increase from the 42-year mean of 13.4 bears per year. Adding six bears to the mean annual kill results in a greater than 40% chance of a decrease by one-quarter in population size over the next 50 years, compared to a 10% chance with the current level of human-caused mortality. Additional mortalities may result from increased problem behaviour by bears at mine sites or hunt and exploration camps, given recent increases in human activity in the region, and may already be present as unreported mortality. We believe any increase in current harvest quotas would considerably lessen conservation prospects for the population.On a simulé les probabilités de baisse de la population en fonction du prélèvement annuel dans le cadre de la chasse pour une population de grizzlis de la toundra (Ursus arctos) habitant le Nunavut et les Territoires du Nord-Ouest, au Canada. Nos résultats suggèrent que la population risque de décliner, surtout si les taux de prélèvement augmentent par rapport à la moyenne établie sur 42 ans qui est de 13,4 ours par an. Le fait d'ajouter 6 ours au prélèvement de chasse annuel augmente à plus de 40 % le risque que la population décline d'un quart au cours des prochains 50 ans, par rapport à 10 % dans le cas du niveau actuel de mortalité provoquée par les humains. Vu l'augmentation récente de l'activité anthropique dans la région, d'autres individus pourraient être abattus à cause du nombre croissant de comportements problématiques des ours résidant à des sites miniers et à des campements d'exploration, et il est possible que ce phénomène existe déjà mais que les morts ne soient pas rapportées. Notre opinion est que toute augmentation des quotas actuels de prélèvement réduirait considérablement les perspectives de conservation pour la population

Target structure independent 7Li⃗^7\vec{Li} elastic scattering at low momentum transfers

Analyzing powers and cross sections for the elastic scattering of polarized 7Li by targets of 6Li, 7Li and 12C are shown to depend only on the properties of the projectile for momentum transfers of less than 1.0 fm-1. The result of a detailed analysis of the experimental data within the framework of the coupled channels model with ground state reorientation and transitions to the excited states of the projectile and targets included in the coupling schemes are presented. This work suggests that nuclear properties of weakly-bound nuclei can be tested by elastic scattering experiments, independent of the target used, if data are acquired for momentum transfers less than ~1.0 fm-1.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, accepted in Phys. Lett.

pp-sdsd shell gap reduction in neutron-rich systems and cross-shell excitations in 20^{20}O

Excited states in $^{20}$O were populated in the reaction $^{10}$Be($^{14}$C,$\alpha$) at Florida State University. Charged particles were detected with a particle telescope consisting of 4 annularly segmented Si surface barrier detectors and $\gamma$ radiation was detected with the FSU $\gamma$ detector array. Five new states were observed below 6 MeV from the $\alpha$-$\gamma$ and $\alpha$-$\gamma$-$\gamma$ coincidence data. Shell model calculations suggest that most of the newly observed states are core-excited 1p-1h excitations across the $N = Z = 8$ shell gap. Comparisons between experimental data and calculations for the neutron-rich O and F isotopes imply a steady reduction of the $p$-$sd$ shell gap as neutrons are added

Mechanical properties of high-temperature superconducting wires

Bending strength, fracture toughness, and elastic modulus data were acquired for YBa2Cu3O(x), Bi2Sr2CaCu2O(x) (Bi,Pb)2Sr2Ca2Cu3O(x), and Tl2Ba2Ca2Cu3O(x) bars. These data and thermal expansion coefficients strongly suggest that the maximum possible tensile strain without fracture of bulk tapes or wires is approximately equals 0.2%. In Ag-clad conductors, residual stresses will be of limited benefit, but fractures produced by larger strains can be accommodated by shunting current through the Ag

Demography and Viability of a Hunted Population of Polar Bears

We estimated demographic parameters and harvest risks for a population of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) inhabiting Baffin Bay, Canada and Greenland, from 1974 to 1997. Our demographic analysis included a detailed assessment of age- and sex-specific survival and recruitment from 1221 marked polar bears, which used information contained within the standing age distribution of captures and mark-recapture analysis performed with Program MARK. Unharvested (natural) survival rates for females (± 1 SE) from mark-recapture analysis were 0.620 ± 0.095 (cubs), 0.938 ± 0.042 (ages 1–4), 0.953 ± 0.020 (ages 5–20), and 0.919 ± 0.046 (ages 21+). Total (harvested) survival rates for females were reduced to 0.600 ± 0.096 (cubs), 0.901 ± 0.045 (ages 1–4), 0.940 ± 0.021 (ages 5–20), and 0.913 ± 0.047 (ages 21+). Mean litter size was 1.59 ± 0.07 cubs, with a mean reproductive interval of 2.5 ± 0.01 years. By age 5, on average 0.88 ± 0.40 of females were producing litters. We estimated the geometric means (± bootstrapped SDs) for population growth rates at stable age distribution as 1.055 ± 0.011 (unharvested) and 1.019 ± 0.015 (harvested). The model-averaged, mark-recapture estimate of mean abundance (± 1 SE) for years 1994–97 was 2074 ± 266 bears, which included 1017 ± 192 females and 1057 ± 124 males. We incorporated demographic parameters and their error terms into a harvest risk analysis designed to consider demographic, process, and sampling uncertainty in generating likelihoods of persistence (i.e., a stochastic, harvest-explicit population viability analysis). Using our estimated harvest of polar bears in Baffin Bay (88 bears/yr), the probability that the population would decline no more than could be recovered in five years was 0.95, suggesting that the current hunt is sustainable.De 1974 à 1997, on a évalué les paramètres démographiques d’une population d’ours polaires (Ursus maritimus) habitant la baie de Baffin (Canada et Groenland), ainsi que les risques associés à leur prélèvement. Notre analyse démographique comprenait un bilan détaillé de la survie et du recrutement par âge et par sexe, bilan mené sur 1221 ours polaires étiquetés et qui faisait appel à l’information contenue dans les limites de la structure d’âge des captures à un moment précis, ainsi que des analyses de marquage-recapture réalisées avec le logiciel MARK. Les taux de survie sans prélèvements (c’est-à-dire naturels) des femelles (± 1 erreur-type) tirés de l’analyse de marquage-recapture étaient les suivants: 0,620 ± 0,095 (oursons), 0,938 ± 0,042 (1–4 ans), 0,953 ± 0,020 (5–20 ans) et 0,919 ± 0,046 (21 ans et plus). Les taux de survie globaux (avec prélèvements) des femelles diminuaient à: 0,600 ± 0,096 (oursons), 0,901 ± 0,045 (1–4 ans), 0,940 ± 0,021 (5–20 ans) et 0,913 ± 0,047 (21 ans et plus). La taille moyenne des portées était de 1,59 ± 0,07 ourson avec des intervalles moyens de reproduction de 2,5 ± 0,01 ans. Arrivées à l’âge de cinq ans, en moyenne 0,88 ± 0,40 des femelles avaient eu des petits. On a évalué que les moyennes géométriques (± écart-type bootstrappé) pour les taux de croissance de la population à la structure d’âge stable étaient de 1,055 ± 0,011 (sans prélèvements) et de 1,019 ± 0,015 (avec prélèvements). La valeur estimée à partir du marquage-recapture, moyennée par le modèle, de l’abondance moyenne (± 1 erreur-type), pour les années allant de 1994 à 1997 était de 2074 ± 266 ours, dont 1017 Å} 192 femelles et 1057 ± 124 mâles. On a intégré les paramètres démographiques et leurs termes d’erreur dans une analyse des risques de prélèvements conçue pour tenir compte des incertitudes démographiques, de processus et d’échantillonnage lors du calcul des probabilités de persistance (c.-à-d. une analyse stochastique de la viabilité de la population qui tient compte des prélèvements). En se basant sur nos prélèvements estimés de l’ours polaire dans la baie de Baffin (88 ours/an), la probabilité que la population ne décline pas plus que ce qu’elle pourrait récupérer en 5 ans était de 0,95, ce qui suggère que la chasse actuelle est durable

Methods for Minimizing the Confounding Effects of Word Length in the Analysis of Phonotactic Probability and Neighborhood Density

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The original is available at http://jslhr.pubs.asha.org/article.aspx?articleid=1781521&resultClick=3Recent research suggests that phonotactic probability (the likelihood of occurrence of a sound sequence) and neighborhood density (the number of words phonologically similar to a given word) influence spoken language processing and acquisition across the lifespan in both normal and clinical populations. The majority of research in this area has tended to focus on controlled laboratory studies rather than naturalistic data such as spontaneous speech samples or elicited probes. One difficulty in applying current measures of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density to more naturalistic samples is the significant correlation between these variables and word length. This study examines several alternative transformations of phonotactic probability and neighborhood density as a means of reducing or eliminating this correlation with word length. Computational analyses of the words in a large database and reanalysis of archival data supported the use of z scores for the analysis of phonotactic probability as a continuous variable and the use of median transformation scores for the analysis of phonotactic probability as a dichotomous variable. Neighborhood density results were less clear with the conclusion that analysis of neighborhood density as a continuous variable warrants further investigation to differentiate the utility of z scores in comparison to median transformation scores. Furthermore, balanced dichotomous coding of neighborhood density was difficult to achieve, suggesting that analysis of neighborhood density as a dichotomous variable should be approached with caution. Recommendations for future application and analyses are discussed

Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover Mast Camera Zoom (Mastcam-Z) Multispectral, Stereoscopic Imaging Investigation

Mastcam-Z is a multispectral, stereoscopic imaging investigation on the Mars 2020 mission’s Perseverance rover. Mastcam-Z consists of a pair of focusable, 4:1 zoomable cameras that provide broadband red/green/blue and narrowband 400-1000 nm color imaging with fields of view from 25.6° × 19.2° (26 mm focal length at 283 μrad/pixel) to 6.2° × 4.6° (110 mm focal length at 67.4 μrad/pixel). The cameras can resolve (≥ 5 pixels) ∼0.7 mm features at 2 m and ∼3.3 cm features at 100 m distance. Mastcam-Z shares significant heritage with the Mastcam instruments on the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover. Each Mastcam-Z camera consists of zoom, focus, and filter wheel mechanisms and a 1648 × 1214 pixel charge-coupled device detector and electronics. The two Mastcam-Z cameras are mounted with a 24.4 cm stereo baseline and 2.3° total toe-in on a camera plate ∼2 m above the surface on the rover’s Remote Sensing Mast, which provides azimuth and elevation actuation. A separate digital electronics assembly inside the rover provides power, data processing and storage, and the interface to the rover computer. Primary and secondary Mastcam-Z calibration targets mounted on the rover top deck enable tactical reflectance calibration. Mastcam-Z multispectral, stereo, and panoramic images will be used to provide detailed morphology, topography, and geologic context along the rover’s traverse; constrain mineralogic, photometric, and physical properties of surface materials; monitor and characterize atmospheric and astronomical phenomena; and document the rover’s sample extraction and caching locations. Mastcam-Z images will also provide key engineering information to support sample selection and other rover driving and tool/instrument operations decisions

Cost effectiveness of epidural steroid injections to manage chronic lower back pain

Background The efficacy of epidural steroid injections in the management of chronic low back pain is disputed, yet the technique remains popular amongst physicians and patients alike. This study assesses the cost effectiveness of injections administered in a routine outpatient setting in England. Methods Patients attending the Nottingham University Hospitals’ Pain Clinic received two injections of methylprednisolone plus levobupivacaine at different dosages, separated by at least 12 weeks. Prior to each injection, and every week thereafter for 12 weeks, participants completed the EQ-5D health-related quality of life instrument. For each patient for each injection, total health state utility gain relative to baseline was calculated. The cost of the procedure was modelled from observed clinical practice. Cost effectiveness was calculated as procedure cost relative to utility gain. Results 39 patients provided records. Over a 13-week period commencing with injection, mean quality adjusted life year (QALY) gains per patient for the two dosages were 0.028 (SD 0.063) and 0.021 (SD 0.057). The difference in QALYs gained by dosage was insignificant (paired t-test, CIs -0.019 – 0.033). Based on modelled resource use and data from other studies, the mean cost of an injection was estimated at £219 (SD 83). The cost utility ratio of the two injections amounted to £8,975 per QALY gained (CIs 5,480 – 22,915). However, at costs equivalent to the tariff price typically paid to providers by health care purchasers, the ratio increased to £27,459 (CIs 16,779 – 70,091). Conclusions When provided in an outpatient setting, epidural steroid injections are a short term, but nevertheless cost effective, means of managing chronic low back pain. However, designation of the procedure as a day case requires the National Health Service to reimburse providers at a price which pushes the procedure to the margin of cost effectiveness