Escaping path dependence : essays on foresight and environmental management

The dissertation examines linkages between foresight, innovation and environmental management and policy to escape undesirable path dependencies at the different levels of innovation systems, especially with the means of foresight. The dissertation is characterized as action research that applies literature reviews, semi-structured interviews, direct observations, Internet-based group support systems, decision analysis, trend analysis and computer assisted workshops within case studies and empirically grounded theory-building. The dissertation consists of six articles and the summary. The first article deals with responsiveness in the management of foresight activities. The second article studies possible ways to escape techno-institutional path dependencies by combining methods used in foresight activities and drafting environmental voluntary agreements. The third article applies this approach to the analysis of a hydrogen energy foresight. The fourth article examines how environmental management systems may strengthen path dependencies. The fifth article develops and applies a new foresight method RPM Screening, which is also applied in the sixth article in connection with a European coordination tool. The implications of the mechanisms of path dependence on foresight objectives are identified as follows: (i) improved systems understanding calls for attention to continuous and discontinuous changes, which can be facilitated by diversity considerations, (ii) enhanced networking requires not only strengthening existing networks but also restructuring or even destruction of possible lock-in conditions by a redefinition of stakeholder roles and (iii) strengthened innovation activities necessitate fostering prospective innovation ideas, rivaling coalitions and the development of new technological and institutional arrangements. The results of this dissertation suggest extending the locus of foresight processes closer to decision-making and conducting them in connection with other coordination-oriented policy tools to address also institutional arrangements for discontinuous systemic changes. Whereas the dissertation identifies and responds to these challenges by developing responsive and modular foresight methods, further policy experimentation is recommended to support policy learning and the collection of further evidence for the findings.reviewe

IE WP 23/04 Prospective Voluntary Agreements to Escape Carbon Lock-in

The paper looks for co-evolutionary policy responses to carbon lock-in – a persistent state that creates systemic market and policy barriers to carbon low technological alternatives. We address the coordination role for authorities rather than the corrective optimisation and analyse experiences from environmental voluntary agreements and foresight activities. The paper argues that combining the virtues of these tools into a new policy tool, named Prospective Voluntary Agreement (PVA), can help facilitate an escape from carbon lock-in and provide policy resources for addressing lock-in related issues. The merit of PVA lies with the enhancement of collaborative policy culture and inter-sectoral and interdisciplinary stakeholder learning that creates commitment to desired action for escaping lock-in.environmental voluntary agreement; foresight; increasing returns; lock-in; path-dependence

The competitive environment of the European electricity sector in the post-Kyoto scenarios

This paper shows how the uncertainty associated to the absence of a post-Kyoto regime regarding Greenhouse Gas mitigation is affecting investments in mitigation activities in the EU electricity sector and, thus, future emissions levels. Based on a wide survey of EU power companies, the paper identifies the most likely post-Kyoto scenarios considered by these firms and how they are coping with such uncertainty in their current investment decisions. The major conclusion is that the non-existence of a post-Kyoto regime is having a negative effect on current business investment decisions in mitigation activities, increasing risk premiums and financing costs. All in all, the companies surveyed foresee post-Kyoto compliance regimes with emissions trading systems that would guarantee the continuity of the value of the reductions made beforehand, although they differ in their perceptions of the form that a post-Kyoto regime could take.Post-Kyoto scenarios; EU electricity sector; investment decisions

Challenges in transnational research programming: the role of NETWATCH

For Europe to meet the dual objectives of increased competitiveness and addressing societal challenges, joining efforts at all levels in Research and Innovation is high on the policy agenda. The EU can play a role in fostering and facilitating increased collaboration. The NETWATCH information platform on transnational collaboration is among the tools available to support this role. This brief explores the current use and future potential of NETWATCH and other related platforms in guiding and monitoring transnational R&I programming towards increased societal impact and competitiveness. It proposes ways to make better use of existing data, as well as avenues for future development.JRC.J.2-Knowledge for Growt

Unleashing Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Europe: People, Places and Policies. Report of a CEPS Task Force February 2017

This report sets out the elements for the design of a streamlined and future-proof policy on innovation and entrepreneurship in Europe. It is the result of a collective effort led by CEPS, which formed a Task Force on Innovation and Entrepreneurship in the EU, composed of authoritative scholars, industry experts, entrepreneurs, practitioners and representatives of EU and international institutions. The result of these deliberations is a set of policy recommendations aimed at improving the overall environment and approach for entrepreneurship and innovation in Europe and a new paradigmatic understanding of the role that innovation and entrepreneurship can and should play within the overall context of EU policy. These recommendations are based on a new, multi-dimensional approach to both innovation and entrepreneurship as social phenomena and to the policies that are meant to promote them

Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning

In this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise ‘Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges' which was carried out for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors. This exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues; the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters; and the interpretation of resulting clusters as an important step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures. In order to achieve such objectives, horizon scanning can benefit from methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis for prioritizing, clustering and combining issues. Furthermore, these methods provide support for traceability, which in turn contributes to the enhanced transparency and legitimacy of foresigh

Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis

Transformations linked to disruptive events are causing a shift in future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) activities from individual large-scale foresight actions to smaller in-house exercises and capacity building. The reasons are manifold relating to the need for an even tighter embedding of FTA in policy-making in a fast-changing complex environment as well as to internal drivers for novel forms of future intelligence to support coordinated and coherent decisions within and across organisations. This paper identifies three ideal types: external FTA services, the institutionalisation of FTA, and FTA networks, whilst recognising that in practice these types are complementary. In empirical terms this requires further investigation, in order to understand how different combinations of activities actually operate in their respective decision-making contexts. It is important to improve our understanding of how far institutionalised FTA can form part of customised solutions for building capacity to handle disruption

Facing the Future: Time for the EU to meet Global Challenges

What will the world look like in 2025? What are the possible future disruptive global challenges? And how can the EU position itself to take an active role in shaping a response to them? This publication offers possible answers to these questions through the identification of three main challenges and potential responses to these, and concludes that the main policy issues to be considered at EU level are: policy alignment towards sustainability; social diversity and the use of ICT for citizen empowerment; and the need to embed capabilities for anticipating future challenges to enable these to become new opportunities. The methodology applied combines widely accepted quantified trends by 2025 and beyond with the opinions of experts and policy makers on the likely consequences of these trends and wild cards. A multi-criteria quantitative analysis (Robust Portfolio Modelling) was used as a novel element to prioritise issues as a basis for discussion with selected experts and policy makers. This work has been undertaken in close cooperation with the Bureau of European Policy Advisors of the European Commission.JRC.DDG.J.3-Knowledge for Growt

The competitive environment of the European electricity sector in the post-Kyoto scenarios

This paper shows how the uncertainty associated to the absence of a post-Kyoto regime regarding Greenhouse Gas mitigation is affecting investments in mitigation activities in the EU electricity sector and, thus, future emissions levels. Based on a wide survey of EU power companies, the paper identifies the most likely post-Kyoto scenarios considered by these firms and how they are coping with such uncertainty in their current investment decisions. The major conclusion is that the non-existence of a post-Kyoto regime is having a negative effect on current business investment decisions in mitigation activities, increasing risk premiums and financing costs. All in all, the companies surveyed foresee post-Kyoto compliance regimes with emissions trading systems that would guarantee the continuity of the value of the reductions made beforehand, although they differ in their perceptions of the form that a post-Kyoto regime could take

The competitive environment of the European electricity sector in the post-Kyoto scenarios

This paper shows how the uncertainty associated to the absence of a post-Kyoto regime regarding Greenhouse Gas mitigation is affecting investments in mitigation activities in the EU electricity sector and, thus, future emissions levels. Based on a wide survey of EU power companies, the paper identifies the most likely post-Kyoto scenarios considered by these firms and how they are coping with such uncertainty in their current investment decisions. The major conclusion is that the non-existence of a post-Kyoto regime is having a negative effect on current business investment decisions in mitigation activities, increasing risk premiums and financing costs. All in all, the companies surveyed foresee post-Kyoto compliance regimes with emissions trading systems that would guarantee the continuity of the value of the reductions made beforehand, although they differ in their perceptions of the form that a post-Kyoto regime could take