Modeling the impacts of ocean warming and acidification on marine fish and ecosystems in the Barents Sea

Marine ecosystems are known to be climatea dependent, and impacts from progressing global climate change are increasingly observed and anticipated to intensify in the course of the 21st century. Under continuously high anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, drivers such as ocean warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation will increasingly affect marine ecosystems and the provision of marine ecosystem services to human societies. Environmental drivers affect organismal processes directly, but also have indirect effects through biotic interactions. Human societies are dependent on the ecosystem services provided by the oceans, and have limited adaptive capacities to changes in ecosystem service provision. An integrated evaluation of marinea human systems is thus necessary to understand coming changes, and is increasingly pursued by recent ecosystema based and integrated assessment and management approaches. The uncertainty of future climate change impacts and the interactions with the increasing anthropogenic pressures on marine systems need to be addressed. Ecological models are important tools to provide this integration of data and processes, as they can put experimental and observational data into context, and enable us to move beyond simple extrapolations of future states and experiences, creating an understanding of the changes in marine ecosystems anticipated in the future. While a wide variety of modeling approaches is available to answer specific ecological questions, a quantitative integration over different hierarchical levels, and different types of data and knowledge, is rarely achieved. The presented thesis revolves around a case study from the Barents Sea, which is among the marine regions with the earliest impacts of ocean acidification and warming expected and already observed, providing an integrative view of the impacts of these drivers on marine ecosystems and the provision of ecosystem services in the focus region. The work was built upon a thorough general analysis of available modeling approaches for modeling climate change impacts on marine fish populations (Paper 1). This analysis assessed capacities of the existing modeling approaches and recent applications, and revealed processes which need to be incorporated better in the light of recent experimental and observational results. A modeling framework to address the specific questions in the Barents Sea region was developed based on participation of stakeholders gained during personal interviews and two workshops (Paper 2). This served to incorporate their concerns and knowledge into the model structure and identify potential adaptation options for the stakeholder groups. To address one specific scientific question of high importance and uncertainty, the anticipated impacts on fish stock recruitment, an early life stage model was developed which incorporates the experimentally quantified effects of ocean acidification and warming on Atlantic cod eggs and larvae (Paper 3). This model offers a new approach to integrating empirical data on environmental and food-web drivers into recruitment projections of marine fish. Finally, an integrative fooda web model based on the structure developed in the stakeholder work and on current processa based understanding was parameterized with empirical data and estimates of organismal rates, to simulate the dynamic fluctuations in the Barents Sea food web and explore potential shifts in composition and dynamics under ocean warming and ocean acidification (Paper 4). In the thesis discussion, the papers are summarized and put into context, and the implications for the user groups in the region and possible societal adaptation options to the projected changes are highlighted. Impacts on fisheries, cultural and recreational ecosystem services, associated adaptation options for stakeholder groups, and interactions with other uses of the ocean system and expected changes under climate change are delineated. To advance ecosystema based governance in the area, the limitations in adaptation options of some user groups point to the need to better consider these groups in decisions and regulations concerning fisheries and marine areas. The Barents Sea study thus exemplifies the possibilities to integrate experiments, observations and stakeholder input into integrative assessments of marine ecosystems under climate change. Based on the insights gained from processa based modelling and stakeholder participation, it is described how understanding and projections of climate change impacts on marinea human systems can be advanced, pointing out the importance of improved interdisciplinary cooperation and communication and an integrative perspective to link across scales and subsystems a tasks to which purposefully designed models can contribute substantially

Modeling the impacts of ocean warming and acidification on marine fish and ecosystems in the Barents Sea

Marine ecosystems are known to be climatea dependent, and impacts from progressing global climate change are increasingly observed and anticipated to intensify in the course of the 21st century. Under continuously high anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, drivers such as ocean warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation will increasingly affect marine ecosystems and the provision of marine ecosystem services to human societies. Environmental drivers affect organismal processes directly, but also have indirect effects through biotic interactions. Human societies are dependent on the ecosystem services provided by the oceans, and have limited adaptive capacities to changes in ecosystem service provision. An integrated evaluation of marinea human systems is thus necessary to understand coming changes, and is increasingly pursued by recent ecosystema based and integrated assessment and management approaches. The uncertainty of future climate change impacts and the interactions with the increasing anthropogenic pressures on marine systems need to be addressed. Ecological models are important tools to provide this integration of data and processes, as they can put experimental and observational data into context, and enable us to move beyond simple extrapolations of future states and experiences, creating an understanding of the changes in marine ecosystems anticipated in the future. While a wide variety of modeling approaches is available to answer specific ecological questions, a quantitative integration over different hierarchical levels, and different types of data and knowledge, is rarely achieved. The presented thesis revolves around a case study from the Barents Sea, which is among the marine regions with the earliest impacts of ocean acidification and warming expected and already observed, providing an integrative view of the impacts of these drivers on marine ecosystems and the provision of ecosystem services in the focus region. The work was built upon a thorough general analysis of available modeling approaches for modeling climate change impacts on marine fish populations (Paper 1). This analysis assessed capacities of the existing modeling approaches and recent applications, and revealed processes which need to be incorporated better in the light of recent experimental and observational results. A modeling framework to address the specific questions in the Barents Sea region was developed based on participation of stakeholders gained during personal interviews and two workshops (Paper 2). This served to incorporate their concerns and knowledge into the model structure and identify potential adaptation options for the stakeholder groups. To address one specific scientific question of high importance and uncertainty, the anticipated impacts on fish stock recruitment, an early life stage model was developed which incorporates the experimentally quantified effects of ocean acidification and warming on Atlantic cod eggs and larvae (Paper 3). This model offers a new approach to integrating empirical data on environmental and food-web drivers into recruitment projections of marine fish. Finally, an integrative fooda web model based on the structure developed in the stakeholder work and on current processa based understanding was parameterized with empirical data and estimates of organismal rates, to simulate the dynamic fluctuations in the Barents Sea food web and explore potential shifts in composition and dynamics under ocean warming and ocean acidification (Paper 4). In the thesis discussion, the papers are summarized and put into context, and the implications for the user groups in the region and possible societal adaptation options to the projected changes are highlighted. Impacts on fisheries, cultural and recreational ecosystem services, associated adaptation options for stakeholder groups, and interactions with other uses of the ocean system and expected changes under climate change are delineated. To advance ecosystema based governance in the area, the limitations in adaptation options of some user groups point to the need to better consider these groups in decisions and regulations concerning fisheries and marine areas. The Barents Sea study thus exemplifies the possibilities to integrate experiments, observations and stakeholder input into integrative assessments of marine ecosystems under climate change. Based on the insights gained from processa based modelling and stakeholder participation, it is described how understanding and projections of climate change impacts on marinea human systems can be advanced, pointing out the importance of improved interdisciplinary cooperation and communication and an integrative perspective to link across scales and subsystems a tasks to which purposefully designed models can contribute substantially

Blood flow in cylindrical stenosed channel – numerical approach

Arthrosclerosis means literally “arteries hardening”. However, arthrosclerosis it is a generic term that is related with three patterns of vascular diseases, which have the hardening and loss of elasticity of the arteries walls as a common factor [1]. The dominant pattern is atherosclerosis, characterized by the formation of atheroma, which is comprised by fibrous plaques that generally exhibit a centre rich in lipids. In the present work, the flow of blood in a cylindrical channel, containing an atheroma at the walls, has been numerically studied using the finite-element software package POLYFLOW®. In the simulations, blood was considered an incompressible homogenous fluid and the flow regime was the laminar regime. The rheology of the mentioned fluid was described by distinct constitutive equations [2] - constant viscosity, power-law model and Carreau model. The local behaviour of properties such as pressure, interstitial velocities, shear rate and shear stress was explored in the present investigation. The local behaviour of these properties can help to understand the formation and detachment of thrombi

The Hsp70 Stress Response and its Genetic Background in South American intertidal and subtidal Limpets (Nacella)

The alterations in environmental parameters anticipated during global climate change are predicted to intensify physiological stress to marine ectotherms and impose selective regimes on their stress-tolerance capacities. The limits to which the effects on ecosystems will be buffered by phenotypic plasticity and adaptation of populations appear unpre- dictable. One of the most universal reactions to environmental stress is the classic heat shock response, and its evaluation in intertidal invertebrates, which experience extreme fluctuations in stress levels, may be useful to advance in the mechanistic understanding of future regime shifts. Using real-time RT-qPCR, I quantified the heat shock response in limpets of the genus Nacella that had been subjected to tidal emersion under natural conditions in field experiments at two locations in Chile. In a subpolar limpet population from Punta Arenas in the Strait of Magellan, high-intertidal limpets showed delayed stress responses, including markedly lower expression of the hsp70A gene, in comparison to their subtidal congeners. Low-intertidal limpets from a warmer acclimatized population sampled at Puerto Montt (Central Chile) exhibited the highest stress response to tidal emersion, presumably due to higher temperatures affecting air exposed animals in a cold-temperate as compared to a subpolar environment. On the genomic level, the subtidal and intertidal subpopulations display a conspicuous divergence in two distinct hsp70A allele groups, as evidenced by a discrepancy in F’st estimates in comparison to neutral genetic markers. My work indicates that Patagonian limpets show a graded heat shock response, increasing from South to North on a latitudinal gradient and from low to high on a tidal stress gradient. It provides indication for adaptive divergence of the hsp70A gene in these South American limpets, which might be explained by the selective effect of environmental stress caused by tidal emersion. Furthermore, it illustrates the great explanatory potential, but also conceptual difficulties of the heat shock response as an integrative biomarker for environmental stress. Stability assessment of reference genes is an integral part of quantification of the response, as stress conditions can cause down-regulation of constitutive genes and lead to overestimation of stress response levels. The quantification of response levels has to be performed against a thoroughly assessed background of inter-individual variation, population dynamic history and potential sequence adaptation

Modellierende Analyse von OzeanerwaA rmung und -versauerung und der Auswirkungen auf marine OA kosysteme und OA kosystemdienstleistungen

Marine ecosystems are known to be climatea dependent, and impacts from progressing global climate change are increasingly observed and anticipated to intensify in the course of the 21st century. Under continuously high anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, drivers such as ocean warming, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation will increasingly affect marine ecosystems and the provision of marine ecosystem services to human societies. Environmental drivers affect organismal processes directly, but also have indirect effects through biotic interactions. Human societies are dependent on the ecosystem services provided by the oceans, and have limited adaptive capacities to changes in ecosystem service provision. An integrated evaluation of marinea human systems is thus necessary to understand coming changes, and is increasingly pursued by recent ecosystema based and integrated assessment and management approaches. The uncertainty of future climate change impacts and the interactions with the increasing anthropogenic pressures on marine systems need to be addressed. Ecological models are important tools to provide this integration of data and processes, as they can put experimental and observational data into context, and enable us to move beyond simple extrapolations of future states and experiences, creating an understanding of the changes in marine ecosystems anticipated in the future. While a wide variety of modeling approaches is available to answer specific ecological questions, a quantitative integration over different hierarchical levels, and different types of data and knowledge, is rarely achieved. The presented thesis revolves around a case study from the Barents Sea, which is among the marine regions with the earliest impacts of ocean acidification and warming expected and already observed, providing an integrative view of the impacts of these drivers on marine ecosystems and the provision of ecosystem services in the focus region. The work was built upon a thorough general analysis of available modeling approaches for modeling climate change impacts on marine fish populations (Paper 1). This analysis assessed capacities of the existing modeling approaches and recent applications, and revealed processes which need to be incorporated better in the light of recent experimental and observational results. A modeling framework to address the specific questions in the Barents Sea region was developed based on participation of stakeholders gained during personal interviews and two workshops (Paper 2). This served to incorporate their concerns and knowledge into the model structure and identify potential adaptation options for the stakeholder groups. To address one specific scientific question of high importance and uncertainty, the anticipated impacts on fish stock recruitment, an early life stage model was developed which incorporates the experimentally quantified effects of ocean acidification and warming on Atlantic cod eggs and larvae (Paper 3). This model offers a new approach to integrating empirical data on environmental and food-web drivers into recruitment projections of marine fish. Finally, an integrative fooda web model based on the structure developed in the stakeholder work and on current processa based understanding was parameterized with empirical data and estimates of organismal rates, to simulate the dynamic fluctuations in the Barents Sea food web and explore potential shifts in composition and dynamics under ocean warming and ocean acidification (Paper 4). In the thesis discussion, the papers are summarized and put into context, and the implications for the user groups in the region and possible societal adaptation options to the projected changes are highlighted. Impacts on fisheries, cultural and recreational ecosystem services, associated adaptation options for stakeholder groups, and interactions with other uses of the ocean system and expected changes under climate change are delineated. To advance ecosystema based governance in the area, the limitations in adaptation options of some user groups point to the need to better consider these groups in decisions and regulations concerning fisheries and marine areas. The Barents Sea study thus exemplifies the possibilities to integrate experiments, observations and stakeholder input into integrative assessments of marine ecosystems under climate change. Based on the insights gained from processa based modelling and stakeholder participation, it is described how understanding and projections of climate change impacts on marinea human systems can be advanced, pointing out the importance of improved interdisciplinary cooperation and communication and an integrative perspective to link across scales and subsystems a tasks to which purposefully designed models can contribute substantially