Risk Perceptions and Adaptation Decision-making at Farm-scale : a Nordic Case-study

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Climate change adaptation in Uusimaa agriculture : risk perceptions, adaptation measures and -policies

Climate change causes climatic risks (hazard-exposure-vulnerability) that are experienced in agriculture as problems with increased precipitation, droughts, pest invasions and weather variability. Agriculture needs to adapt to these changing conditions to secure its continuation in future. It is the farmers, who in last hand take action for adaptation. Farmers are recognized as a stakeholder group in agricultural with plenty of skills to tackle varying weather conditions. In fact, farmers are already implementing adaptation measures, although it is not always driven by or aimed at climate change explicitly. Adaptation policies aimed at farm-scale are being planned and developed. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading scientific source of adaptation policy recommendations. Currently it is recommending risk management approach for managing the known and unknown climatic risks that societies and sectors like agriculture are facing. In agriculture, for example, crop loss insurances are part of climate risk management. Farmers are making adaptation decisions at farm-scale based on their own beliefs and experiences, on information from variable sources, and guided by policies and legislation. The primary driver for taking adaptive action at farm, according to protection motivation theory (PMT), however, is the perception of risk – if the risk is assessed high enough and the adaptation is assessed possible. In this thesis, PMT and the theory of risk perception are used to explain farm-scale adaptation. Adaptation is examined as climate or weather variation driven adaptation measures implemented by farmers autonomously or guided by policies. A case study approach and stakeholder interviews were used because of the novelty of the study topic. By examining the case of ‘adaptation in Uusimaa agriculture’ through the perceptions of interviewed farmers and extension officers, an overview on farm-scale adaptation with its variety of influencing factors, and better understanding of risk perceptions as adaptation drivers is reached. Findings of the study show that farmers in Uusimaa are taking adaptation measures, but adaptation policies are not yet guiding adaptation at farm level and that farmers are divided by the ways they respond to climatic risks. Further studies on adaptation policies and agricultural adaptation should recognize the varying risk responses, the need for better adaptation policy guidance and farmers’ adaptation experiences and skills.Ilmastonmuutos aiheuttaa riskejä (vaara-altistuminen-haavoittuvuus), jotka koetaan maataloudessa hankaluuksina lisääntyneen sadannan, kuivuuden, tuholaisinvaasioiden ja sään vaihtelun kanssa. Maatalouden on jatkuakseen sopeuduttava näihin muuttuviin olosuhteisiin. Viljelijät kantavat sopeutumisesta viimekäden vastuun. Viljelijät yhtenä maatalouden sopeutujista, ovat tunnustetusti kyvykkäitä pärjäämään vaihtelevien sääolosuhteiden kanssa. Viljelijät toteuttavatkin jo sopeutumistoimenpiteitä, vaikka ne eivät aina ole välittömästi ilmastonmuutokseen kohdistettuja tai sen ajamia. Maatilatasolle ohjattua sopeutumispolitiikkaa suunnitellaan ja kehitetään ja tämän johtavana tieteellisenä ohjeistajana on hallitustenvälinen ilmastonmuutospaneeli (IPCC). Tällä hetkellä IPCC suosittelee riskinhallintaa lähestymistapana tunnettuihin ja tuntemattomiin ilmastoriskeihin, joiden edessä yhteiskunta on eri sektoreineen maatalous mukaan lukien. Maataloudessa esimerkiksi satovahinkovakuutukset ovat osa ilmastoriskien hallintaa. Viljelijät tekevät sopeutumiseen liittyviä päätöksiä tilatasolla perustuen muun muassa uskomuksiinsa ja kokemuksiinsa, eri lähteistä saatuihin tietoihin, politiikkaohjaukseen ja lainsäädäntöön. Ensisijaisesti sopeutumistoimintaa ohjaa riskikäsitykset, mikäli riski arvioidaan riittävän korkeaksi ja sopeutuminen siihen arvioidaan mahdolliseksi – tällöin sopeutumisaikomus voi johtaa sopeutumistoimintaan. Päätöksenteko perustuu tällöin suojelumotivaatioon. Tässä tutkielmassa suojelumotivaatioteoriaa (PMT) ja riskikäsitysteoriaa käytetään selittämään tilatason sopeutumista. Sopeutumista tarkastellaan ilmaston ja sään vaihteluiden ajamina sopeutumistoimenpiteinä joita viljelijät toteuttavat joko itseohjautuvasti tai politiikkaohjauksen seurauksena. Lähestymistapana käytetään tapaustutkimusta ja asianosaishaastatteluja koska aihe on vähän tutkittu. Tutkimuskohteena on Uudenmaan maatalouden sopeutuminen, josta haastateltujen viljelijöiden ja maatalousneuvojien silmin avautuu kokonaisnäkymä tilatason sopeutumiseen. Tutkimuksen tuloksia tarkastelemalla tilatason sopeutumiseen vaikuttavia tekijöitä ja riskikäsitysten merkitystä sopeutumista ohjaavina tekijöinä voidaan ymmärtää paremmin. Tulokset osoittavat, että uusmaalaiset viljelijät toteuttavat sopeutumistoimenpiteitä, mutta politiikkaohjauksella ei toistaiseksi ole siinä juuri osaa ja että viljelijöillä on eri tyyppisiä ilmastoriskiin vastaamisen tapoja. Tulevien sopeutumispolitiikan- ja maatalouden sopeutumistutkimusten on syytä huomioida erilaiset riskivasteet, tarve ohjaavalle sopeutumispolitiikalle maataloudessa sekä viljelijöiden kyvykkyys ja kokemukset sopeutumiseen liittyen

Decisions to adapt : trade-offs, maladaptation and transformations in Nordic agri-food systems

This thesis is a study of climate change adaptation as a human adjustment process in the context of Northern European agriculture. It deals with the human decision-making entailing uncertainty, risks and opportunities brought about by climate change and climate policies. Agricultural production of food in Northern Europe is under pressure. There are constant changes in societal structures, such as policies and economic markets, as well as climatic stressors. The climate impacts pose direct risks to production, such as increasing floods and droughts, as well as indirect pressures through, for example, the global demand for arable lands. This constantly changing and complex socio-environmental context of food production is expected to drive processes of adjustment in the agricultural sector. Recent assessments suggest that in most parts of Europe adaptation measures in the agricultural sector will increase significantly in the coming years. Agricultural adaptation research is focused on the climate risks with respect to production and on the development of technical solutions. Agricultural and food production sciences are at the front line of technical development of adaptation measures, such as new plant varieties, production environments and cultivation measures. There is also a growing body of literature on the systemic complexity of adaptation needs and options focused on climate impacts. Farm-scale adaptation is mainly studied in the development and management research fields among other applied research focused on developing countries, farm economics and local case studies. The current literature suggests that farmers will implement the adaptation measures in order to secure their livelihoods and to sustain the productivity of agricultural soils and lands. The perspective of agri-food system practitioners, nevertheless, is less represented in adaptation literature. This is also true of research on the societal drivers and outcomes of adaptation. That said, there is research suggesting that although adaptation is aimed at decreasing risks and vulnerability, the farm-scale adaptation measures may have unintended harmful impacts to different actors and resources. These are identified in yet few empirical studies to involve economic losses at farm scale, local environmental damage and short-term productivity decreases. This presents a gap in the research that should provide background knowledge for governing the complex field of adaptation in agriculture and food production sectors. From the perspective of environmental and social sciences, the adaptation measures call for focused assessment in terms of their social drivers and socio-environmental outcomes in all regions globally. This thesis sets out to address this gap and increase understanding on adaptation measures as an issue of decision-making within complex socio-environmental contexts and trade-offs. This thesis applies a qualitative empirical study with an interdisciplinary epistemological stand and methodological approach that draws on agri-food system practitioner perceptions. The focus is on crop farmers and on farm-scale adaptation. Furthermore, attention is paid to other professionals of the sector who deal with various agri-food systems, development and management, and in governance. The research starts with an analysis of adaptation measures and the drivers for their implementation at farm scale and the agricultural sector, followed by an analysis of the potential unintended harmful outcomes of these measures. Finally, the transformative adaptation measures that concern the food systems in the Nordic context are analysed. Key findings of this thesis show that climate change adaptation measures in the Nordic agri-food systems are currently aimed at reducing risks and increasing long-term adaptive capacity when it serves the highly contextual and often subjective needs. These do not always reflect the public policy goals and often involve harmful outcomes with respect to other actors and the sustainable development goals. To advance sustainable implementation of adaptation measures in Nordic agriculture inevitably requires governance interventions that include actors from various fields of society.Maatalouteen perustuva ruoantuotanto Pohjois-Euroopassa on ahtaalla. Tämä johtuu jatkuvista yhteiskunnallisissa rakenteissa tapahtuvista muutoksista ja ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksista. Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset aiheuttavat välittömiä riskejä tuotannolle esimerkiksi tulvien ja kuivuuden muodossa ja ne näkyvät myös välillisesti esimerkiksi viljelymaan globaalin kysynnän kasvuna. Muuttuvien olosuhteiden on otaksuttu ajavan sopeutumiseen tähtäävää kehitystä maataloussektorilla. Odotuksena on, että maatalouden sopeutumistoimet lisääntyvät tulevina vuosina merkittävässä määrin suurimmassa osassa Eurooppaa. Maatalouden sopeutumistutkimus on keskittynyt tuotantoon kohdistuviin ilmastoriskeihin ja teknisiin ratkaisuihin tuotannon turvaamiseksi. Vallitsevan tutkimuskirjallisuuden taustaoletuksena on, että viljelijät omaksuvat sopeutumistoimenpiteitä säilyttääkseen maatalousmaiden tuottavuuden ja turvatakseen elinkeinonsa. Maatalous-ruokajärjestelmien toimijoiden näkökulmat ovat kirjallisuudessa kuitenkin aliedustettuna, samoin kuin tutkimus sopeutumisen vaikutuksista ja yhteiskunnallisista ajureista. Sopeutumistoimet maatalous- ja ruokasektoreilla uhkaavat jäädä tehottomiksi, jollei näkökulmien moninaisuutta ja sopeutumiseen liittyviä erilaisia vaikutusketjuja tunnisteta nykyistä laajemmin. Tämän väitöskirjan tarkoitus on lisätä ymmärrystä sopeutumistoimista päätöksenteon kysymyksinä kompleksisessa yhteiskunnallisten ja ympäristömuutosten kontekstissa. Väitöskirja on kvalitatiivinen empiirinen tutkimus pohjoismaisen peltokasviviljelyn sopeutumiskehityksestä, joka keskittyy viljelijöiden ja muiden maatalousalan ammattilaisten sopeutumiskäsityksiin. Lähestymistapaa aiheeseen viitoittaa tieteidenvälisyys. Tutkimus käsittelee ilmastonmuutokseen sopeutumista inhimillisenä mukautumiskehityksenä, johon sisältyy ilmastonmuutoksen ja -politiikan aikaansaamia epävarmuuksia, riskejä ja mahdollisuuksia. Väitöskirjan tulokset osoittavat, että sopeutumistoimenpiteitä kohdennetaan pohjoismaisissa maatalous-ruokajärjestelmissä etenkin riskien vähentämiseen ja pitkän aikavälin sopeutumiskyvyn lisäämiseen. Toimia edistetään, kun niistä on hyötyä myös muutoin kuin sopeutumiselle. Nykyisiin sopeutumistoimiin liittyy usein mahdollisia haitallisia seurauksia muille toimijoille ja kestävän kehityksen tavoitteille. Sopeutumistoimien edistäminen pohjoismaisessa maataloudessa kansallisten ja kansainvälisten politiikkatavoitteiden mukaisesti vaatii epäilemättä hallinnollista väliintuloa ja toimijoiden osallistamista yhteiskunnan eri aloilta

Analysing trade-offs in adaptation decision-making-agricultural management under climate change in Finland and Sweden

In light of the increased focus on climate change adaptation, there is a need to understand when and how adaptation decision-making generates trade-offs. This study presents a novel framework for adaptation trade-off assessments, which integrates (I) two trade-off mechanisms (direct and interactions) and (II) two types of trade-off characteristics (substantive and processual). Perspectives on adaptation trade-offs were collected from 37 Swedish and Finnish agricultural experts through semi-structured interviews supported by serious gaming and visualization. The data were thematically analysed based on the provided analytical framework. The results show that trade-offs in agricultural adaptation decision-making processes involve balancing a number of socio-ecological system aspects that are of different character and have different functions. The study identified 20 aspects generating trade-offs related to adaptation management in Swedish and Finnish agriculture, among which 'crop yield and profitability', 'farm economy', 'pest and weed robustness' and 'soil quality' were discussed as the most prominent by respondents. The framework enables an examination of complex trade-off structures that can have implications for adaptation management decisions. The results show that the identified aspects constitute different components and functions of trade-offs, including both processual and/or substantive ones. In conclusion, the 20 identified aspects and the framework together demonstrate the importance of the two types of adaptation trade-offs and the resulting complexity of climate change adaptation decision-making in Swedish and Finnish agriculture. Furthermore, the study asserts the potential of applying the framework for various strategic contexts-to recognize and cope with trade-offs in adaptation management.Peer reviewe

Making sense of maladaptation : Nordic agriculture stakeholders’ perspectives

The need for climate change adaptation has been widely recognised and examples of successful adaptation are increasingly reported in the literature, but little attention has so far been paid to the potential negative impacts of implemented adaptation measures. As the agricultural sector is implementing measures to adapt to or cope with climatic variability and change, the potential negative consequences of these measures need to be explored in order to avoid increased vulnerability or (unintended) environmental impacts. This paper employs serious gaming and focus group methodology to study how agricultural stakeholders in Sweden and Finland frame and negotiate the unintended negative impacts of adaptation measures. The results of our interactional frame analysis suggest that the participants negotiated the potential maladaptive outcomes depending on: (1) whether they agreed that this was indeed a potential consequence of an adaptation measure, (2) whether they considered this to be a negative outcome, and if so whether it was (3) a negative outcome which they could adapt to, (4) a negative outcome that would make it preferable not to adapt at all (5) negotiable in terms of a trade-off with alternative outcomes. While it may be obvious that adaptation options that increase vulnerability should be avoided, this study illustrates the complex, value based, individual, yet dialogical processes and contextual basis for identifying and assessing maladaptation.Peer reviewe

Connecting climate justice and adaptation planning: An adaptation justice index

Considerations of justice with regards to climate change adaptation are increasingly called for in the academic literature, but little attention has been paid to the dimensions of justice regarding the development of adaptation policy and instruments used. Thus, there is a gap when it comes to connecting the dimensions of justice to different types of adaptation strategies and plans. Here, we synthesise the findings of previous studies to create an adaptation justice index for the four dimensions of climate justice in the context of adaptation: recognitional, distributive, procedural and restorative justice. This index can be used ex ante to analyse and compare climate adaptation strategies and plans in different societal contexts as well as at different levels of governance, and we illustrate this by analysing four national and four city-level strategies. As adaptation planning is still a relatively new area of climate governance, the results offer potential for justice informed evaluation of adaptation plans and strategies.Peer reviewe

Integrated framework for identifying transformative adaptation in agri-food systems

Climate change adaptation measures and practices may induce fundamental changes i.e. transformations in socio-ecological systems. Adaptation that intentionally aims for transformation is often intended to increase benefits and synergies with other broader societal development goals such as sustainability. Adaptation measures also have possible unintended negative effects that, in the case of system transformations, may be difficult to reverse. This study seeks to identify characteristic features of the adaptation processes that may result in agrifood system transformations. We introduce an integrated framework to identify these features and 'adaptation activity spaces', and apply this framework to the Nordic context, analysing stakeholder interviews that integrated serious gaming. The results show how transformations may result from adaptation measures targeted towards climate risks with an objective of changing either current practices or surrounding supportive structures. This study addresses reasons why transformative adaptation is not occurring in Nordic agri-food systems and presents novel information that may contribute to policymaking and further research needs on transformations in relation to adaptation decision-making.Peer reviewe

Climate risk perception, management, and adaptation in the Nordic mining sector

Climate change can affect the mining sector in various ways. Physical impacts can be a threat to mines and personnel, transport infrastructure and supply chains, while the low-carbon transition may entail transition risks stemming from e.g., the need to respond to mitigation and adaptation policies, as well as opportunities in the form of increased metal and mineral demand. However, there is little knowledge of how mining companies perceive, manage, and respond to risks related to climate change. To address this knowledge gap, we examined annual and sustainability reports from 2019 for active metal mines in Finland, Sweden, and Norway. Through a structuring qualitative content analysis, we analysed the mining companies’ self-reported experience of and expectations for climate change impacts and risks, as well as adaptation and management activities taken or planned. Our findings indicate that physical impacts of climate change are not perceived as a major risk. In contrast, mitigation activities and reactions to climate policies play an important role, at least for some of the companies. Hence, the mining sector would benefit from more stringent risk reporting regulations and distinctive guidelines, as well as more research on the direct and indirect climate change impacts.Peer reviewe

Climate change transformations in Nordic agriculture?

Climate change is expected to have negative impacts but also to bring potential opportunities for agriculture and crop productivity in the Nordic countries. Little research has been conducted at the farmer level to identify what adaptation measures are being considered or already taken and transformative these are. Based on semi-structured interviews with farmers and extension officers from two of the most fertile agricultural areas of Finland and Sweden, this study examines to what extent Nordic farmers are engaged in transforming their farming systems. The results show that some transformational changes are taking place already but most changes are incremental. Currently, agricultural policies and regulations are perceived as a greater adaptation challenge than climate change.Peer reviewe

Governance and everyday adaptations? Examining the disconnect between planned and autonomous adaptation through justice outcomes

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