Effects Of Climate Change On Hypoxia In Coastal Waters: A Doubled Co2 Scenario For The Northern Gulf Of Mexico

Projections of general circulation models suggest that freshwater discharge from the Mississippi River to the coastal ocean will increase 20% if atmospheric CO2 concentration doubles. This result is likely to affect water column stability, surface productivity, and global oxygen cycling in the northern Gulf of Mexico, which is the site of the largest (up to 16,500 km(2)) and most severe hypoxic zone (liter(-1)) in the western Atlantic Ocean. We use a coupled physical-biological two-box model to investigate potential effects of climate change on seasonal oxygen cycling and hypoxia in river-dominated coastal waters. The model was developed and calibrated using comprehensive environmental data sets collected on the Mississippi River and in the northern Gulf of Mexico between 1985 and 1993. The relative magnitude of changes in river runoff and severity of hypoxia during the 1993 Mississippi River flooding provide an excellent data set for model verification. Model simulations for a doubled CO2 climate predict a 30-60% decrease in summertime sub-pycnoclinal oxygen content, relative to a 1985-1992 average. Under those conditions, the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico will expand and encompass an area greater than that of summer 1993

Impacts Of Climate Change On Net Productivity Of Coastal Waters: Implications For Carbon Budgets And Hypoxia

General circulation models predict that freshwater discharge from the Mississippi River (USA) to the coastal ocean would increase 20 % if atmospheric CO2 concentration doubles. Here we use a coupled physical-biological 2-box model to investigate the potential impacts of increased freshwater and nutrient inputs on the production and decay of organic matter in the coastal waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Model results for a doubled CO2 climate indicate that the annual net productivity of the upper water column (NP, 0 to 10 m) is likely to increase by 65 g C m(-2) yr(-1), relative to a 1985-1992 average (122 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). Interestingly, this projected increase is of the same magnitude as the one that has occurred since the 1940s due to the introduction of anthropogenic nutrients. An increase in annual NP of 32 g C m(-2) yr(-1) was observed during the Great Mississippi River Flood of 1993, thus indicating the general validity of a doubled CO2 scenario. The total oxygen uptake in the lower water column (10 to 20 m), in contrast, is likely to remain at its present value of about 200 g O-2 m(-2) yr(-1). Thus, carbon export and burial, rather than in situ respiration, are likely to be the dominant processes balancing coastal carbon budgets, leading perhaps to an expanded extent of the hypoxic zone

Predicting The Response Of Gulf Of Mexico Hypoxia To Variations In Mississippi River Nitrogen Load

The effects of nutrient loading from the Mississippi River basin on the areal extent of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico were examined using a novel application of a dissolved oxygen model for a river. The model, driven by river nitrogen load and a simple parameterization of ocean dynamics, reproduced 17 yr of observed hypoxia location and extent, subpycnocline oxygen consumption, and cross-pycnocline oxygen flux. With Monte Carlo analysis, we illustrate through hindcasts back to 1968 that extensive regions of low oxygen were not common before the mid-1970s. The Mississippi River Watershed/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force set a goal to reduce the 5-yr running average size of the Gulf\u27s hypoxic zone to less than 5,000 km(2) by 2015 and suggested that a 30% reduction from the 1980-1996 average nitrogen load is needed to reach that goal. Here we show that 30% might not be sufficient to reach that goal when year-to-year variability in ocean dynamics is considered

Global Patterns of Dissolved N, P and Si in Large Rivers

The concentration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved nitrate-N, Total-N (TN), dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP), total phosphorus (TP), dissolved silicate-Si (DSi) and their ratios in the world\u27s largest rivers are examined using a global data base that includes 37% of the earth\u27s watershed area and half its population. These data were compared to water quality in 42 subbasins of the relatively well-monitored Mississippi River basin (MRB) and of 82 small watersheds of the United States. The average total nitrogen concentration varies over three orders of magnitude among both world river watersheds and the MRB, and is primarily dependent on variations in dissolved nitrate concentration, rather than particulate or dissolved organic matter or ammonium. There is also a direct relationship between the DIN:DIP ratio and nitrate concentration. When nitrate-N exceeds 100 μg-at l−1, the DIN:DIP ratio is generally above the Redfield ratio (16:1), which implies phosphorus limitation of phytoplankton growth. Compared to nitrate, the among river variation in the DSi concentration is relatively small so that the DSi loading (mass/area/time) is largely controlled by runoff volume. The well-documented influence of human activities on dissolved inorganic nitrogen loading thus exceeds the influences arising from the great variability in soil types, climate and geography among these watersheds. The DSi:nitrate-N ratio is controlled primarily by nitrogen loading and is shown to be inversely correlated with an index of landscape development – the “City Lights” nighttime imagery. Increased nitrogen loading is thus driving the world\u27s largest rivers towards a higher DIN:DIP ratio and a lower DSi:DIN ratio. About 7.3 and 21 % of the world\u27s population lives in watersheds with a DSi:nitrate-N ratio near a 1:1 and 2:1 ratio, respectively. The empirical evidence is that this percentage will increase with further economic development. When the DSi:nitrate-N atomic ratio is near 1:1, aquatic food webs leading from diatoms (which require silicate) to fish may be compromised and the frequency or size of harmful or noxious algal blooms may increase. Used together, the DSi:nitrate-N ratio and nitrate-N concentration are useful and robust comparative indicators of eutrophication in large rivers. Finally, we estimate the riverine loading to the ocean for nitrate-N, TN, DIP, TP and DSi to be 16.2, 21, 2.6, 3.7 to 5.6, and 194 Tg yr−1, respectively

Global Change And Eutrophication Of Coastal Waters

The cumulative effects of global change, including climate change, increased population, and more intense industrialization and agri-business, will likely continue and intensify the course of eutrophication in estuarine and coastal waters. As a result, the symptoms of eutrophication, such as noxious and harmful algal blooms, reduced water quality, loss of habitat and natural resources, and severity of hypoxia (oxygen depletion) and its extent in estuaries and coastal waters will increase. Global climate changes will likely result in higher water temperatures, stronger stratification, and increased inflows of freshwater and nutrients to coastal waters in many areas of the globe. Both past experience and model forecasts suggest that these changes will result in enhanced primary production, higher phytoplankton and macroalgal standing stocks, and more frequent or severe hypoxia. The negative consequences of increased nutrient loading and stratification may be partly, but only temporarily, compensated by stronger or more frequent tropical storm activity in low and mid-latitudes. In anticipation of the negative effects of global change, nutrient loadings to coastal waters need to be reduced now, so that further water quality degradation is prevented

Mississippi River diversions and phytoplankton dynamics in deltaic Gulf of Mexico estuaries: A review

River systems worldwide have become substantially influenced by human activities, including land use changes, river diversion operations, and flood control measures. Some of the unambiguous and best studied examples of effects of enhanced eutrophication on biotic resources can be found in Louisiana estuaries at the terminus of the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River system. The Mississippi River delta has experienced large losses of coastal wetlands due to a combination of human impacts and sea-level rise. State and Federal agencies are moving ahead with plans for building large-scale river sediment diversions, which will capture maximum sediment during spring flood pulses and direct a sediment subsidy into the eroding coastal basins. These large-scale river sediment diversions will also substantially increase freshwater and nutrient inputs and are likely to affect algal bloom formation, including harmful cyanobacterial blooms. There are concerns that discharge of river water containing high concentrations of N, P and Si may trigger algal blooms in the coastal receiving basins. River sediment diversions, as any other flood pulsing, will likely be disruptive to the coastal ecology and so balancing the benefits of slowing coastal land loss against potential negative effects on water quality remains a formidable management challenge. We review here the physical, chemical and biological factors affecting primary production in shallow coastal systems and provide known data on ecosystem response to freshwater diversions, large and small. We also discuss potential management approaches to mitigate the negative impacts of the diversions on the health and stability of the coastal food webs

Environmental effects of a marine fish farm of gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) in the NW Mediterranean Sea on water column and sediment

This study examined the effects of organic enrichment on water column, sediments and macrofauna caused by a fish farm in the Mediterranean Sea. Samples were collected on four sampling campaigns over a one-year cycle. Significant differences were found in the water column in dissolved oxygen, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, phosphate and total phosphorus concentrations between the fish farm and the control. The increase in the dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate concentrations at the fish farm modified the stoichiometric ratios between nutrients, with silicate acting as limiting nutrient at the fish farm 11% more than at the control. Nevertheless, chlorophyll a concentration in the water column was higher at the control station, probably due to the fouling of the underwater fish farm structures. Significant differences were found in sediment concentrations of organic matter, total phosphorus and redox potential between the fish farm and the control. The Canonical Correlation Analysis indicated that organic matter, total phosphorus, redox potential and% of gravels accounted for 68.9% of the total variance in the species data. Changes were observed in macrofauna, with a decrease in number of species and up to a nine-fold increase in abundance with respect to the control. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.We would like to thank the Caja del Mediterraneo (CAM) for a pre-doctoral fellowship fund for this research and Antonio Asuncion Acuigroup Maremar Manager, for the facilities and support in conducting the study. The translation of this paper was funded by the Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Spain.Morata Higón, T.; Falco Giaccaglia, SL.; Gadea, I.; Sospedra Ciscar, J.; Rodilla Alamá, M. (2013). Environmental effects of a marine fish farm of gilthead seabream (Sparus aurata) in the NW Mediterranean Sea on water column and sediment. 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Biotic resistance to invasion along an estuarine gradient

Biotic resistance is the ability of native communities to repel the establishment of invasive species. Predation by native species may confer biotic resistance to communities, but the environmental context under which this form of biotic resistance occurs is not well understood. We evaluated several factors that influence the distribution of invasive Asian mussels (Musculista senhousia) in Mission Bay, a southern California estuary containing an extensive eelgrass (Zostera marina) habitat. Asian mussels exhibit a distinct spatial pattern of invasion, with extremely high densities towards the back of Mission Bay (up to 4,000 m−2) in contrast with near-complete absence at sites towards the front of the bay. We established that recruits arrived at sites where adult mussels were absent and found that dense eelgrass does not appear to preclude Asian mussel growth and survival. Mussel survival and growth were high in predator-exclusion plots throughout the bay, but mussel survival was low in the front of the bay when plots were open to predators. Additional experiments revealed that consumption by spiny lobsters (Panulirus interruptus) and a gastropod (Pteropurpura festiva) likely are the primary factors responsible for resistance to Asian mussel invasion. However, biotic resistance was dependent on location within the estuary (for both species) and also on the availability of a hard substratum (for P. festiva). Our findings indicate that biotic resistance in the form of predation may be conferred by higher order predators, but that the strength of resistance may strongly vary across estuarine gradients and depend on the nature of the locally available habitat

Police-initiated diversion for youth to prevent future delinquent behavior: a systematic review

BackgroundOverly punitive responses to youth misconduct may have the unintended consequence ofincreasing the likelihood of future delinquency; yet, overly lenient responses may fail to serveas a corrective for the misbehavior. Police diversion schemes are a collection of strategiespolice can apply as an alternative to court processing of youth. Police-initiated diversionschemes aim to reduce reoffending by steering youth away from deeper penetration into thecriminal justice system and by providing an alternative intervention that can help youthaddress psychosocial development or other needs that contribute to their problem behavior.ObjectivesThe objective of this review was to synthesize the evidence on the effectiveness of pre-courtinterventions involving police warning or counseling and release, and cautioning schemes inreducing delinquent behavior.Search methodsA combination of 26 databases and websites were searched. References of relevant reviewswere also scanned to identify studies. We also consulted with experts in the field. Searcheswere executed by two reviewers and conducted between August 2016 and January 2017.Selection criteriaOnly experimental and quasi-experimental designs were eligible for this review. All quasiexperimentaldesigns must have had a comparison group similar to the police diversionintervention group with respect to demographic characteristics and prior involvement indelinquent behavior (i.e., at similar risk for future delinquent behavior). Additionally, studiesmust have included youth participants between 12 and 17 years of age who either underwenttraditional system processing or were diverted from court processing through a police-leddiversion program. Studies were also eligible if delinquency-related outcomes, includingofficial and non-official (self-report or third-party reporting) measures of delinquency werereported.Data collection and analysisThis study used meta-analysis to synthesize results across studies. This method involvedsystematic coding of study features and conversion of study findings into effect sizesreflecting the direction and magnitude of any police-led diversion effect. There were 19independent evaluations across the 14 primary documents coded for this review. From this,we coded 67 effect sizes of delinquent behavior post diversion across 31 diversion-traditionalprocessing comparisons. We analyzed these comparisons using two approaches. The firstapproach selected a single effect size per comparison based on a decision rule and the secondused all 67 effect sizes, nesting these within comparison condition and evaluation design.ResultsThe general pattern of evidence is positive, suggesting that police-led diversion modestlyreduces future delinquent behavior of low-risk youth relative to traditional processing.Authors’ conclusionsThe findings from this systematic review support the use of police-led diversion for low-riskyouth with limited or no prior involvement with the juvenile justice system. Thus, policedepartments and policy-makers should consider diversionary programs as part of the mix ofsolutions for addressing youth crime