Combining socio-economic and climate projections to assess heat risk

The assessments of future climate risks are common; however, usually, they focus on climate projections without considering social changes. We project heat risks for Finland to evaluate (1) what kind of differences there are in heat vulnerability projections with different scenarios and scales, and (2) how the use of socio-economic scenarios influences heat risk assessments. We project a vulnerability index with seven indicators downscaled to the postal code area scale for 2050. Three different scenario sets for vulnerability are tested: one with five global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios; the second with three European SSPs (EUSSPs) with data at the sub-national scale (NUTS2); and the last with the EUSSPs but aggregated data at the national scale. We construct projections of heat risk utilizing climatic heat hazard data for three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and vulnerability and exposure data for five global SSPs up to 2100. In the vulnerability projections, each scenario in each dataset shows a decrease in vulnerability compared to current values, and the differences between the three scenario sets are small. There are evident differences both in the spatial patterns and in the temporal trends when comparing the risk projections with constant vulnerability to the projections with dynamic vulnerability. Heat hazard increases notably in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but a decrease of vulnerability especially in SSP1 and SSP5 alleviates risks. We show that projections of vulnerability have a considerable impact on future heat-related risk and emphasize that future risk assessments should include the combination of long-term climatic and socio-economic projections.Peer reviewe

Universities responding to the call for sustainability : A typology of sustainability centres

Universities worldwide are experiencing a growing trend to respond to the need for sustainability. Sustainability centres are one key aspect in the sustainability transitions of universities. Until currently, these centres have been relatively neglected by research. This exploratory study makes a solid contribution to the scholarship and understanding of the various means by which universities are responding to the societal challenge of sustainability by analysing a sample of 44 sustainability centres across the world to increase understanding of the characteristics and roles of these centres in contributing to sustainability. Furthermore, the study identifies four types of centres differing in their goals, objects, scope and scale of research, knowledge production and outreach activities. The typology of the centres can be applied for example when new centres are established or when centres identify or redefine their profiles. The authors suggest further research concerning sustainability centres, given their central role as nodes of sustainability research, education and co-creation in sustainability transformation. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Role of Transformative Capacity in River Basin Management Transformations

To tackle problems related to water quantity and quality, transformations in water management systems have become of increasing interest. Transformative capacity can be defined as the ability first to adapt to changes, and if needed, to carry out fundamental changes in a specific system. Using a framework of ten components of transformative capacity and an analysis of earlier historical research, policy documents and data gathered in a stakeholder scenario workshop, we examine the relationship between past and future transformations and transformative capacity in river basin management in the River Vantaa basin, located in southern Finland. In the past, River Vantaa was heavily polluted by municipal wastewater. The water quality has gradually improved but is still not considered good. The most successful changes have been concentrated on point source pollution, such as municipal wastewater, and they have mostly been driven by public administration and municipal coordination. In the future, more effort should be put on diffuse pollution, especially agricultural loading, and this requires changes in societal values and new forms of governance. We show how the past transformations have partly been driven by transformative capacity, but some transformations have enabled changes in the components of transformative capacity, indicating the interconnectedness of the different components. Furthermore, the interplay between transformations and transformative capacity occurs across spatial and temporal scales. We discuss how transformations take time, how transformative capacity evolves over longer time-spans, and how capacity and trajectories in local and wider scales are in a continuous interaction.Peer reviewe

A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments

Understanding climate risk is crucial for effective adaptation action, and a number of assessment methodologies have emerged. We argue that the dynamics of the individual components in climate risk and vulnerability assessments has received little attention. In order to highlight this, we systematically reviewed 42 sub-national climate risk and vulnerability assessments. We analysed the assessments using an analytical framework with which we evaluated (1) the conceptual approaches to vulnerability and exposure used, (2) if current or future risks were assessed, and (3) if and how changes over time (i.e. dynamics) were considered. Of the reviewed assessments, over half addressed future risks or vulnerability; and of these future-oriented studies, less than 1/3 considered both vulnerability and exposure dynamics. While the number of studies that include dynamics is growing, and while all studies included socio-economic aspects, often only biophysical dynamics was taken into account. We discuss the challenges of assessing socioeconomic and spatial dynamics, particularly the poor availability of data and methods. We suggest that future-oriented studies assessing risk dynamics would benefit from larger stakeholder involvement, discussion of the assessment purpose, the use of multiple methods, inclusion of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses and pathway approaches.Peer reviewe

Transition towards Circular Economy in the Food System

Growing population and increased demand for food, inefficient resource use and food distribution, environmental impacts, and high rates of food wasted at all stages of the food system are all calling for transition towards more sustainable practices. In this article we apply the concept of circular economy to the case of a sustainable food system. Furthermore, we explore the transition towards a circular food system through the lens of socio-technical transition theory towards sustainability. We discuss challenges and potential solutions for the production stage (focusing on nutrient flow), the consumption stage (focusing on meat consumption), and food waste and surplus management and prevention.Peer reviewe

The need for non-climate services – empirical evidence from Finnish municipalities

Peer reviewe

Sää- ja ilmastoriskien hallinta ja tietolähteet Suomessa

Raportissa kuvaillaan sää- ja ilmastoriskien hallintaa ja siihen liittyvien tietolähteiden käyttöä Suomessa. Raportti perustuu kolmeen erilliseen, mutta toisiaan tukevaan työvaiheeseen. Ensimmäinen työvaihe koostui kahdesta verkkokyselystä, joista toinen oli suunnattu kunnille ja toinen suomalaisille organisaatioille yleisesti. Kyselyillä kartoitettiin vastaajien kokemuksia sää- ja ilmastoriskeistä, niiden hallintaa ja käytettyjä tietolähteitä. Toisen työvaiheen muodosti sidosryhmätyöpaja, jonka tavoitteena oli vahvistaa kyselyn pääpiirteiset tulokset ja kerätä ajatuksia sää- ja ilmastoriskien hallinnan ja sitä tukevien palveluiden kehittämiseen. Kolmas työvaihe koostui kirjallisuusperustaisesta toimialakartoituksesta, jossa koottiin yhteen tietoa sää- ja ilmastoriskeistä ja niiden hallinnasta valituilla yhteiskunnan aloilla (vesivarat, vesihuolto, energia, maatalous, liikenne, matkailu, kuntasektori ja finanssiala). Kukin kolmesta työvaiheesta tuloksineen on esitelty raportissa erikseen. Tulokset viittaavat siihen, että vaikka säällä ja ilmastolla on merkittäviä vaikutuksia yhteiskunnan eri aloille ja toimijoille, on niiden aiheuttamien riskien hallinta vaihtelevaa. Yhteistyö eri muodoissaan koetaan tärkeäksi parannettaessa kykyä sää- ja ilmastoriskien hallintaan. Raportti perustuu ELASTINEN-hankkeessa tehtyyn työhön. Tämä julkaisu on toteutettu osana valtioneuvoston vuoden 2015 selvitys- ja tutkimussuunnitelman toimeenpanoa

Vulnerability and its discontents: the past, present, and future of climate change vulnerability research

The concept of vulnerability is well established in the climate change literature, underpinning significant research effort. The ability of vulnerability research to capture the complexities of climate-society dynamics has been increasingly questioned, however. In this paper, we identify, characterize, and evaluate concerns over the use of vulnerability approaches in the climate change field based on a review of peer-reviewed articles published since 1990 (n = 587). Seven concerns are identified: neglect of social drivers, promotion of a static understanding of human-environment interactions, vagueness about the concept of vulnerability, neglect of cross-scale interactions, passive and negative framing, limited influence on decision-making, and limited collaboration across disciplines. Examining each concern against trends in the literature, we find some of these concerns weakly justified, but others pose valid challenges to vulnerability research. Efforts to revitalize vulnerability research are needed, with priority areas including developing the next generation of empirical studies, catalyzing collaboration across disciplines to leverage and build on the strengths of divergent intellectual traditions involved in vulnerability research, and linking research to the practical realities of decision-making

Governance modes and epistemologies of future-oriented vulnerability assessments : Example of a mixed-methods approach

Vulnerability and risk assessments are one of the most common initial steps in climate change adaptation. Accounting for future vulnerability is necessary, because adaptation is planned for future climate risks. However, future-oriented vulnerability assessments are rare, and methodological and conceptual gaps exist. Particularly, investigating the causes of future vulnerability and understanding the socioeconomic processes driving it requires methodological development and stepping away from common quantitative approaches. At the same time, little attention has been paid to the epistemology of future-oriented vulnerability assessments and its implications for practice, as well as to governance modes where the results are intended to be used. In this paper, I synthesize literature on the epistemology of future-oriented vulnerability assessments, and on the governance modes, as well as discuss their roles in the science and practice of vulnerability assessments. Furthermore, I present a case with a novel mixed methods approach to investigate the mechanisms of future vulnerability development in Helsinki, Finland, for year 2050. I then critically appraise this approach in the light of recent literature from the perspectives of science and practice. Finally, I provide recommendations on connecting governance modes, vulnerability assessments, and epistemological positioning.Peer reviewe

Urban futures and climate change : understanding vulnerability dynamics

There is a scientific consensus on the need to account for the dynamics of non-climatic factors of climate risk, i.e., vulnerability and exposure. However, there are a number of gaps and challenges associated with defining, conceptualizing and operationalizing it methodologically. Accounting for vulnerability dynamics is most pertinent in the urban context, due to the rapid pace of population and economic growth in cities, and a large concentration of people and assets subject to potential climate change risks. This thesis studies the phenomenon of urban vulnerability dynamics from theoretical, conceptual and methodological perspectives. Furthermore, it examines vulnerability dynamics from the perspective of urban adaptation governance and information needs. It begins with a systematic literature review, which canvasses the state of the art in urban vulnerability dynamics. The findings show that vulnerability dynamics is not widely taken into account in risk and vulnerability assessments at sub-national level. Moreover, many empirical studies assess future hazards while vulnerability and exposure are assessed at their current state. Next, the status of adaptation in local-level decision-making is explored with a survey to understand practitioners’ needs for adaptation and climate risk management information. The findings show that while practitioners use a wide range of information, there is still a need for non-climate services, i.e., tailored information on vulnerability and exposure as well as how it can be applied in risk management. Building on these results, I develop a novel mixed methods approach to study urban vulnerability dynamics as a process and apply it to the case of Helsinki, Finland, with the timeframe up to 2050. The aim of the study is to understand what socio-economic and land use changes influence future urban vulnerability, and to reconstruct pathways of vulnerability development. I integrate quantitative, qualitative and participatory methods for data collection, as well as quantitative and qualitative methods for data analysis. The results show the direct, indirect and cascading effects of changes in socio-economic drivers onto vulnerability, allowing for the reconstruction of vulnerability development pathways and the establishment of patterns of indicator changes. Finally, I draw on the epistemological foundations of futures research and on governance literature to find connections, and critically appraise the approach developed and the results of the case study to discern the methodological and conceptual contributions. I also draw connections between futures research, governance and vulnerability assessment literature, and, as a result, propose a framework for the epistemological positioning of vulnerability assessments. To conclude, this thesis advances our understanding of vulnerability dynamics, develops the methods to account for it and explores the implications of such knowledge for adaptation governance and urban planning.Ilmastonmuutoksen riskiarvioinnissa on tärkeää huomioida sosioekonomiset riskitekijät, toisin sanoen haavoittuvuus ja altistuminen. Vaikka asiasta vallitsee tieteellinen yhteisymmärrys, se on hankala viedä käytäntöön, koska ymmärrys tekijöistä, niiden välisestä dynamiikasta ja arviointimenetelmät ovat puutteellisia. Haavoittuvuuden dynamiikan huomioiminen kaupunkien riskiarvioinneissa on erityisen tärkeää, koska altistuneita ihmisiä on kaupungeissa paljon. Lisäksi, kaupunkiympäristö vaikuttaa haavoittuvuuden tasoon. Tämä väitöskirja edistää haavoittuvuuden dynamiikan teoreettista ymmärtämistä ja sen arvioinnin menetelmäkehitystä. Lisäksi, tässä väitöskirjassa tarkastellaan haavoittuvuuden dynamiikan arvioinnin vaikutuksia sopeutumishallintoon sekä sen tiedontarpeita. Aloitin tutkimuksen kirjallisuuskatsauksella, jonka tulokset osoittavat, että haavoittuvuuden dynamiikka on otettu huomioon riskiarvioinneissa heikosti. Monissa tapauksissa tulevaisuuden ilmastoriskiarvioinnit toteutetaan haavoittuvuuden ja altistumisen nykytilanteen arviointiin perustuen. Tämä voi johtaa vääriin käsityksiin tulevaisuuden riskeistä ja antaa puutteellisen kuvan sopeutumissuunnittelun tueksi. Seuraavaksi, kyselytutkimuksen avulla tein kartoituksen kuntatason sopeutumisen nykytilasta Suomessa. Tulokset osoittavat, että kunnat tarvitsevat enemmän tietoa liittyen ihmisten haavoittuvuuteen ja altistumiseen sekä tukea näiden tietojen käyttöön. Kehitin näiden kahden osuuden pohjalta uudenlaisen arviointimenetelmän, joka tarkastelee haavoittuvuuden dynamiikan prosessina. Sen avulla arvioin sitä, miten haavoittuvuus kehittyy Helsingissä vuoteen 2050 mennessä. Tulokset näyttävät miten erilaiset sosioekonomiset tekijät, niiden välinen vuorovaikutus sekä näiden prosessien suorat, epäsuorat ja ketjuvaikutukset muovaavat haavoittuvuutta. Nämä tekijät liittyvät, muiden muassa, talouteen, väestökasvuun, kaupunkisuunnitteluun ja -rakenteeseen, ympäristöpolitiikkaan, sosiaaliseen eriytymiseen, ja ilmastonmuutoksen toissijaisiin vaikutuksiin. Arvioin menetelmää ja sen tuottamia tuloksia kriittisesti sopeutumishallinnon näkökulmasta. Samalla kehitin uudenlaisen viitekehyksen haavoittuvuuden arvioinnin suunnitteluun, jossa huomioidaan sekä teoreettinen pohja että sopeutumishallinnon tarpeet. Lopuksi väitän, että käsitystämme ilmastoriskeistä pitää syventää ja ottaa huomioon haavoittuvuuden kehitys. On suositeltavaa palata haavoittuvuuden teorian alkujuurille ja kysyä miksi ihmiset tulevat haavoittuviksi. Haavoittuvuus on suureksi osaksi seurausta yhteiskuntamme toiminnasta, politiikasta ja kaupunkisuunnittelusta, ja juuri haavoittuvuuteen voimme vaikuttaa sopeutumispolitiikalla ja ilmastoriskejä ennaltaehkäisevällä kaupunkisuunnitelulla