Introduction

In 1984, a workshop was held on "climatic variability of the eastern North Pacific and western North America." From it has emerged an annual series of workshops held each spring at the Asilomar Conference Center, Monterey Peninsula, California. These annual gatherings have come to be called PACLIM (Pacific Climate) Workshops, reflecting broad interests in the climatologies associated with the Pacific Ocean. Participants in the six workshops that have convened since 1984 have included atmospheric scientists, hydrologists, geologists, glaciologists, oceanographers, limnologists, and both marine and terrestrial biologists

Introduction

In 1984, a workshop was held on "Climatic variability of the eastern North Pacific and western North America". From it has emerged an annual series of workshops held each spring at the Asilomar Conference Center, Monterey Peninsula, California. These annual gatherings have come to be called PACLIM (Pacific Climate) Workshops, reflecting broad interests in the climatologies associated with the Pacific Ocean

Holocene Fire Occurrence and Alluvial Responses at the Leading Edge of Pinyon–Juniper Migration in the Northern Great Basin, USA

Fire and vegetation records at the City of Rocks National Reserve (CIRO), south-central Idaho, display the interaction of changing climate, fire and vegetation along the migrating front of single-leaf pinyon (Pinus monophylla) and Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma). Radiocarbon dating of alluvial charcoal reconstructed local fire occurrence and geomorphic response, and fossil woodrat (Neotoma) middens revealed pinyon and juniper arrivals. Fire peaks occurred ~10,700–9500, 7200–6700, 2400–2000, 850–700, and 550–400 cal yr BP, whereas ~9500–7200, 6700–4700 and ~1500–1000 cal yr BP are fire-free. Wetter climates and denser vegetation fueled episodic fires and debris flows during the early and late Holocene, whereas drier climates and reduced vegetation caused frequent sheetflooding during the mid-Holocene. Increased fires during the wetter and more variable late Holocene suggest variable climate and adequate fuels augment fires at CIRO. Utah juniper and single-leaf pinyon colonized CIRO by 3800 and 2800 cal yr BP, respectively, though pinyon did not expand broadly until ~700 cal yr BP. Increased fire-related deposition coincided with regional droughts and pinyon infilling ~850–700 and 550–400 cal yr BP. Early and late Holocene vegetation change probably played a major role in accelerated fire activity, which may be sustained into the future due to pinyon–juniper densification and cheatgrass invasion

Late Holocene expansion of ponderosa pine (\u3ci\u3ePinus ponderosa\u3c/i\u3e) in the Central Rocky Mountains, USA

Aim: Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) experienced one of the most extensive and rapid post-glacial plant migrations in western North America. We used plant macrofossils from woodrat (Neotoma) middens to reconstruct its spread in the Central Rocky Mountains, identify other vegetation changes coinciding with P. ponderosa expansion at the same sites, and relate P. ponderosa migrational history to both its modern phylogeography and to a parallel expansion by Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma). Location: Central Rocky Mountains, Wyoming and Montana, and Black Hills, Wyoming and South Dakota, USA. Methods: Plant macrofossils were analysed in 90 middens collected at 14 widely separated sites in the northern part of the range of P. ponderosa var. scopulorum. Middens with and without P. ponderosa were 14C dated to pinpoint time of appearance at each site. Sensitivity experiments using a bioclimatic model were used to evaluate potential climatic drivers of late Holocene expansion. Results: Pinus ponderosa colonized the Black Hills region by at least 3850 yr bp (all ages given in calendar years before present). It expanded into the eastern Bighorn Mountains of northern Wyoming by 2630 yr bp, quickly spreading north in the western Bighorns from 1400 to 1000 yr bp. Concurrent with the latter expansion, P. ponderosa spread c. 350 km to the Little Belt and Big Belt Mountains in western Montana, establishing its northern limit and the modern introgression zone between var. scopulorum and var. ponderosa. Expansion in the Central Rockies of P. ponderosa involved two known haplotypes

Terrestrial ecosystem response to interdecadal climate variability in the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We argue that the most important climatically-driven terrestrial ecosystem changes are concentrated in annual- to decadal-scale episodic events. These rapid ecosystem responses to climate change are manifested as regionally synchronized disturbance events (eg, floods, fires, and insect outbreaks) and increased drought-caused plant mortality rates

Condition monitoring system for characterization of electric motor ball bearings with distributed fault using fuzzy inference tools

The present work shows a condition monitoring system applied to electric motors ball bearings. Unlike most of the previous work on this area, which is mainly focused on the location of single-point defects in bearing components – inner and outer races, cage or ball faults -, this research covers wide range irregularities which are very often more difficult to analyse. In addition to traditional techniques like vibration and current signals, high frequency current bearing pulses and acoustic emissions are also analysed. High frequency bearings current pulses are acquired using motors especially modified. This modification isolates ball bearings from the motor stator frame, except for a bearing housing single point connected to ground through a proper cable where the pulses signal is measured. A multivariable fuzzy inference analysis approach is presented to get around the diagnosis difficulty.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Local Extinction and Unintentional Rewilding of Bighorn Sheep (Ovis canadensis) on a Desert Island

Bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis) were not known to live on Tiburón Island, the largest island in the Gulf of California and Mexico, prior to the surprisingly successful introduction of 20 individuals as a conservation measure in 1975. Today, a stable island population of ∼500 sheep supports limited big game hunting and restocking of depleted areas on the Mexican mainland. We discovered fossil dung morphologically similar to that of bighorn sheep in a dung mat deposit from Mojet Cave, in the mountains of Tiburón Island. To determine the origin of this cave deposit we compared pellet shape to fecal pellets of other large mammals, and extracted DNA to sequence mitochondrial DNA fragments at the 12S ribosomal RNA and control regions. The fossil dung was 14C-dated to 1476-1632 calendar years before present and was confirmed as bighorn sheep by morphological and ancient DNA (aDNA) analysis. 12S sequences closely or exactly matched known bighorn sheep sequences; control region sequences exactly matched a haplotype described in desert bighorn sheep populations in southwest Arizona and southern California and showed subtle differentiation from the extant Tiburón population. Native desert bighorn sheep previously colonized this land-bridge island, most likely during the Pleistocene, when lower sea levels connected Tiburón to the mainland. They were extirpated sometime in the last ∼1500 years, probably due to inherent dynamics of isolated populations, prolonged drought, and (or) human overkill. The reintroduced population is vulnerable to similar extinction risks. The discovery presented here refutes conventional wisdom that bighorn sheep are not native to Tiburón Island, and establishes its recent introduction as an example of unintentional rewilding, defined here as the introduction of a species without knowledge that it was once native and has since gone locally extinct

Defining Ecological Drought for the Twenty-First Century

THE RISING RISK OF DROUGHT. Droughts of the twenty-first century are characterized by hotter temperatures, longer duration, and greater spatial extent, and are increasingly exacerbated by human demands for water. This situation increases the vulnerability of ecosystems to drought, including a rise in drought-driven tree mortality globally (Allen et al. 2015) and anticipated ecosystem transformations from one state to another—for example, forest to a shrubland (Jiang et al. 2013). When a drought drives changes within ecosystems, there can be a ripple effect through human communities that depend on those ecosystems for critical goods and services (Millar and Stephenson 2015). For example, the “Millennium Drought” (2002–10) in Australia caused unanticipated losses to key services provided by hydrological ecosystems in the Murray–Darling basin—including air quality regulation, waste treatment, erosion prevention, and recreation. The costs of these losses exceeded AUD $800 million, as resources were spent to replace these services and adapt to new drought-impacted ecosystems (Banerjee et al. 2013). Despite the high costs to both nature and people, current drought research, management, and policy perspectives often fail to evaluate how drought affects ecosystems and the “natural capital” they provide to human communities. Integrating these human and natural dimensions of drought is an essential step toward addressing the rising risk of drought in the twenty-first century

Iterative Near-Term Ecological Forecasting: Needs, Opportunities, And Challenges

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward