Rental Housing and the Natural Vacancy Rate

This study uses 1989-2005 data for the Seattle metropolitan area to test the natural vacancy rate hypothesis for rental housing markets using a new methodology. Findings support the existence of a natural vacancy rate for apartments that varies over time, and in some cases across apartment submarkets. Results show a decline in the natural vacancy rate in the time period following the introduction and growth of the Web. Results also show significant differences in natural vacancy rates for different geographic subareas. No significant differences in the natural vacancy rate are found for different apartment types.

The Influence of Canadian Investment on U.S. Residential Property Values

This study is an examination of the impact of foreign investors on an American residential real estate market. Point Roberts, Washington, a real estate market that is dominated by Canadians, is the focus of the analysis. Utilizing a ten-year database of home sales, the empirical analysis suggests that the Canadian/U.S. dollar exchange rate and market conditions in nearby Vancouver, British Columbia, strongly influence Point Roberts residential property price levels. A rising Canadian dollar seems to motivate increased demand for Point Roberts property by Canadian investors, for example. The sensitivity of real estate prices to exchange-rate changes appears to be a three-to-six-month lagged function. In general, it appears that a higher Canadian dollar will increase the Canadian demand for Point Roberts real estate which, in turn, leads to higher transaction prices. In addition, transaction prices in Point Roberts are slightly more volatile than are prices in the Vancouver market.

The Value of a Water View: Variability over 25 Years in a Coastal Housing Market

Given a relatively inelastic supply of locations with coastal water views, the price of a water view is likely to rise during housing market upturns and fall during downturns. Using 25 years of data and more than 20,000 home sales for Bellingham, Washington, this study uses the hedonic methodology to estimate water view premiums over different phases of the housing cycle. Views are differentiated both by scope and by distance from the water. Results show real dollar premiums associated with water views move with the housing cycle, rising when housing demand and overall market prices increase and falling when the overall price of housing declines. In addition, the relative value of a view fluctuates as well

Clang and Coccinelle: Synergising program analysis tools for CERT C Secure Coding Standard certification

Writing correct C programs is well-known to be hard, not least due to the many language features intrinsic to C. Writing secure C programs is even harder and, at times, seemingly impossible. To improve on this situation the US CERT has developed and published a set of coding standards, the “CERT C Secure Coding Standard”, that (in the current version) enumerates 118 rules and 182 recommendations with the aim of making C programs (more) secure. The large number of rules and recommendations makes automated tool support essential for certifying that a given system is in compliance with the standard. In this paper we report on ongoing work on integrating two state of the art analysis tools, Clang and Coccinelle, into a combined tool well suited for analysing and certifying C programs according to, e.g., the CERT C Secure Coding standard or the MISRA (the Motor Industry Software Reliability Assocation) C standard. We further argue that such a tool must be highly adaptable and customisable to each software project as well as to the certification rules required by a given standard. Clang is the C frontend for the LLVM compiler/virtual machine project which includes a comprehensive set of static analyses and code checkers. Coccinelle is a program transformation tool and bug-finder developed originally for the Linux kernel, but has been successfully used to find bugs in other Open Source projects such as WINE and OpenSSL

Metabolome-Informed Microbiome Analysis Refines Metadata Classifications and Reveals Unexpected Medication Transfer in Captive Cheetahs.

Even high-quality collection and reporting of study metadata in microbiome studies can lead to various forms of inadvertently missing or mischaracterized information that can alter the interpretation or outcome of the studies, especially with nonmodel organisms. Metabolomic profiling of fecal microbiome samples can provide empirical insight into unanticipated confounding factors that are not possible to obtain even from detailed care records. We illustrate this point using data from cheetahs from the San Diego Zoo Safari Park. The metabolomic characterization indicated that one cheetah had to be moved from the non-antibiotic-exposed group to the antibiotic-exposed group. The detection of the antibiotic in this second cheetah was likely due to grooming interactions with the cheetah that was administered antibiotics. Similarly, because transit time for stool is variable, fecal samples within the first few days of antibiotic prescription do not all contain detected antibiotics, and the microbiome is not yet affected. These insights significantly altered the way the samples were grouped for analysis (antibiotic versus no antibiotic) and the subsequent understanding of the effect of the antibiotics on the cheetah microbiome. Metabolomics also revealed information about numerous other medications and provided unexpected dietary insights that in turn improved our understanding of the molecular patterns on the impact on the community microbial structure. These results suggest that untargeted metabolomic data provide empirical evidence to correct records and aid in the monitoring of the health of nonmodel organisms in captivity, although we also expect that these methods may be appropriate for other social animals, such as cats.IMPORTANCE Metabolome-informed analyses can enhance omics studies by enabling the correct partitioning of samples by identifying hidden confounders inadvertently misrepresented or omitted from carefully curated metadata. We demonstrate here the utility of metabolomics in a study characterizing the microbiome associated with liver disease in cheetahs. Metabolome-informed reinterpretation of metagenome and metabolome profiles factored in an unexpected transfer of antibiotics, preventing misinterpretation of the data. Our work suggests that untargeted metabolomics can be used to verify, augment, and correct sample metadata to support improved grouping of sample data for microbiome analyses, here for nonmodel organisms in captivity. However, the techniques also suggest a path forward for correcting clinical information in microbiome studies more broadly to enable higher-precision analyses

Earth Science Education #7. GeoTrails: Accessible Online Tools for Outreach and Education

As geoscientists, we must prioritize improving our ability to communicate science to the public. Effective geoscience communication enables communities to understand how geological processes have shaped our planet and make informed decisions about Earth’s future. However, geoscience research outputs have traditionally been published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at academic conferences. Consequently, essential information about local geology is rarely available in accessible, open access, and engaging formats. Here, we propose virtual field trips, or ‘GeoTrails’, as a possible solution to address the disconnect between geoscience research and public knowledge by improving our communication to the public. This initiative is largely driven by undergraduate students, who identify points of geological interest along selected hiking trails, write concise descriptions derived from scientific sources (e.g. longer peer-reviewed articles and government reports), and collect field data (e.g. 3-D LiDAR models, drone photography) to illustrate the characteristics of these geological features. The goal of the project is to communicate the importance of local geology on our environment and to raise awareness of how changing climates could affect us in the future; this information can empower communities to make better, more informed planning decisions. The creation of GeoTrails along the Niagara Escarpment offers a promising strategy to highlight the role of geoscientists and to engage the public in our ongoing research that aims to showcase Canada’s geoheritage.En tant que géoscientifiques, nous devons donner la priorité à l’amélioration de notre capacité à communiquer la science au public. Une communication efficace des géosciences permet aux communautés de comprendre comment les processus géologiques ont façonné notre planète et de prendre des décisions éclairées sur l’avenir de la Terre. Cependant, les résultats de la recherche en géosciences ont traditionnellement été publiés dans des revues à comité de lecture et présentés lors de conférences académiques. Par conséquent, les informations essentielles sur la géologie locale sont rarement disponibles sous des formats accessibles, en libre accès et attrayants. Dans cette optique, nous proposons des excursions virtuelles, ou « GeoTrails », comme solution possible pour combler le fossé entre la recherche en géosciences et la connaissance du public en améliorant notre communication avec celui-ci. Cette initiative est en grande partie menée par des étudiants de premier cycle, qui identifient des points d’intérêt géologiques le long de sentiers de randonnée sélectionnés, rédigent des descriptions concises basées sur des sources scientifiques (par exemple, des articles à comité de lecture plus longs et des rapports gouvernementaux) et collectent des données sur le terrain (par exemple, des modèles LiDAR 3-D, des photographies par drone) pour illustrer les caractéristiques de ces caractéristiques géologiques. L'objectif du projet est de communiquer l'importance de la géologie locale sur notre environnement et de sensibiliser aux façons dont les changements climatiques pourraient nous affecter à l'avenir; cette information peut permettre aux communautés de prendre des décisions de planification meilleures et plus éclairées. La création de GeoTrails le long de l'escarpement du Niagara offre une stratégie prometteuse pour mettre en valeur le rôle des géoscientifiques et pour engager le public dans notre recherche en cours qui vise à présenter le patrimoine géologique du Canada

Population-level impact and herd effects following the introduction of human papillomavirus vaccination programmes: updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Background More than 10 years have elapsed since human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was implemented. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of the population-level impact of vaccinating girls and women against human papillomavirus on HPV infections, anogenital wart diagnoses, and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ (CIN2+)to summarise the most recent evidence about the effectiveness of HPV vaccines in real-world settings and to quantify the impact of multiple age-cohort vaccination.Methods In this updated systematic review and meta-analysis, we used the same search strategy as in our previous paper. We searched MEDLINE and Embase for studies published between Feb 1, 2014, and Oct 11, 2018. Studies were eligible if they compared the frequency (prevalence or incidence) of at least one HPV-related endpoint (genital HPV infections, anogenital wart diagnoses, or histologically confirmed CIN2+) between pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods among the general population and if they used the same population sources and recruitment methods before and after vaccination. Our primary assessment was the relative risk (RR) comparing the frequency (prevalence or incidence) of HPV-related endpoints between the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods. We stratified all analyses by sex, age, and years since introduction of HPV vaccination. We used random-effects models to estimate pooled relative risks.Findings We identified 1702 potentially eligible articles for this systematic review and meta-analysis, and included 65 articles in 14 high-income countries: 23 for HPV infection, 29 for anogenital warts, and 13 for CIN2+.After 5\u20138 years of vaccination, the prevalence of HPV 16 and 18 decreased significantly by 83% (RR 0\ub717, 95% CI 0\ub711\u20130\ub725) among girls aged 13\u201319 years, and decreased significantly by 66% (RR 0\ub734, 95% CI 0\ub723\u20130\ub749) among women aged 20\u201324 years. The prevalence of HPV 31, 33, and 45 decreased significantly by 54% (RR 0\ub746, 95% CI 0\ub733\u20130\ub766) among girls aged 13\u201319 years. Anogenital wart diagnoses decreased significantly by 67% (RR 0\ub733, 95% CI 0\ub724\u20130\ub746) among girls aged 15\u201319 years, decreased significantly by 54% (RR 0\ub746, 95% CI 0.36\u20130.60) among women aged 20\u201324 years, and decreased significantly by 31% (RR 0\ub769, 95% CI 0\ub753\u20130\ub789) among women aged 25\u201329 years. Among boys aged 15\u201319 years anogenital wart diagnoses decreased significantly by 48% (RR 0\ub752, 95% CI 0\ub737\u20130\ub775) and among men aged 20\u201324 years they decreased significantly by 32% (RR 0\ub768, 95% CI 0\ub747\u20130\ub798). After 5\u20139 years of vaccination, CIN2+ decreased significantly by 51% (RR 0\ub749, 95% CI 0\ub742\u20130\ub758) among screened girls aged 15\u201319 years and decreased significantly by 31% (RR 0\ub769, 95% CI 0\ub757\u20130\ub784) among women aged 20\u201324 years.Interpretation This updated systematic review and meta-analysis includes data from 60 million individuals and up to 8 years of post-vaccination follow-up. Our results show compelling evidence of the substantial impact of HPV vaccination programmes on HPV infections and CIN2+ among girls and women, and on anogenital warts diagnoses among girls, women, boys, and men. Additionally, programmes with multi-cohort vaccination and high vaccination coverage had a greater direct impact and herd effects

Beyond the periodic orbit theory

The global constraints on chaotic dynamics induced by the analyticity of smooth flows are used to dispense with individual periodic orbits and derive infinite families of exact sum rules for several simple dynamical systems. The associated Fredholm determinants are of particularly simple polynomial form. The theory developed suggests an alternative to the conventional periodic orbit theory approach to determining eigenspectra of transfer operators.Comment: 29 pages Latex2

Three-Year Trajectory of Teachers’ Fidelity to a Drug Prevention Curriculum

Little is known about the trajectories over time of classroom teachers’ fidelity to drug prevention curricula. Using the “Concerns-Based Adoption Model” (C-BAM) as a theoretical framework, we hypothesized that teachers’ fidelity would improve with repetition. Participants comprised 23 middle school teachers who videotaped their administration of three entire iterations of the All Stars curriculum. Investigators coded two key curriculum lessons, specifically assessing the proportion of activities of each lesson teachers attempted and whether they omitted, added, or changed prescribed content, or delivered it using new methods. Study findings provided only partial support for the C-BAM model. Considerable variability in teachers’ performance over time was noted, suggesting that their progression over time may be nonlinear and dynamic, and quite possibly a function of their classroom and school contexts. There was also evidence that, by their third iteration of All Stars, teachers tended to regress toward the baseline mean. That is, the implementation quality of those that started out with high levels of fidelity tended to degrade, while those that started out with very low fidelity to the curriculum tended to improve. Study findings suggest the need for ongoing training and technical assistance, as well as “just in time” messages delivered electronically; but it is also possible that some prevention curricula may impose unrealistic expectations or burdens on teachers’ abilities and classroom time