Optimal Devaluations

We analyze optimal ï¬scal,monetary and exchange rate policy in a simple small open econonomy model with price setting frictions.We perform our analysis in the tradition of optimal dynamic Ramsey problems.We characterize optimal allocations and the government policies that implement the optimal allocation.We analyze optimal ï¬scal,monetary and exchange rate policy in a simple small open econonomy model with price setting frictions.We perform our analysis in the tradition of optimal dynamic Ramsey prob- lems.We characterize optimal allocations and the government policies that implement the optimal allocationDevaluations, Ramsey allocation

Money and prices in models of bounded rationality in high inflation economies

This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning can do better than a model of rational expectations, we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from the data through a switching regime process. We find that the rational expectations model and the model of learning both offer very good explanations for the joint behavior of money and prices.Inflation and money growth, switching regimes, quasi-rationality

Optimal Maturity of Government Debt with Incomplete Markets

In this paper we show how risk free bonds of different maturities can be used to replace state contingent debt in a general equilibrium dynamic optimal taxation problem. In particular, we show that if the state of the economy can only take a finite number N of values each period, then the government can support the complete markets Ramsey allocation issuing bonds of J> N different maturities. We also show that the optimal maturity structure does depend on teh relationship between the term strucutre of interest rates and goverenment expenditures. In the case that intreset rates are positively correlated with government expenditures in the Ramsey solution, then the government must hold short run assets and long term liabilites.

Recurrent hyperinflations and learning

This paper uses a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the last decade. We study a standard monetary model where the fully rational expectations assumption is replaced by a formal definition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learning is able to match remarkably well some crucial stylized facts observed during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced by several countries in the 80's. We argue that, despite being a small departure from rational expectations, quasi-rational learning does not preclude falsifiability of the model and it does not violate reasonable rationality requirements.Hyperinflations, convertibility, stabilization plans, quasi-rationality

Optimal devaluations

According to the conventional wisdom, when an economy enters a recession and nominal prices adjust slowly, the monetary authority should devalue the domestic currency to make the recession less severe. The reason is that a devaluation of the currency lowers the relative price of non-tradable goods, and this reduces the necessary adjustment in output relative to the case in which the exchange rate remains constant. This paper uses a simple small open economy model with sticky prices to characterize optimal fiscal and monetary policy in response to productivity and terms of trade shocks. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, in this framework optimal exchange rate policy cannot be characterized just by the cyclical properties of output. The source of the shock matters: while recessions induced by a drop in the price of exportable goods call for a devaluation of the currency, those induced by a drop in productivity in the non-tradable sector require a revaluation.Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Economic Stabilization

Money and prices in models of bounded rationality in high inflation economies

This paper studies the short run correlation of inflation and money growth. We study whether a model of learning does better or worse than a model of rational expectations, and we focus our study on countries of high inflation. We take the money process as an exogenous variable, estimated from the data through a switching regime process. We find that the rational expectations model and the model of learning both offer very good explanations for the joint behavior of money and prices. JEL Classification: D83, E17, E31Inflation andmoney growth, quasi-rationality, switching regimes

Stock market volatility and learning

Introducing bounded rationality into a standard consumption based asset pricing model with a representative agent and time separable preferences strongly improves empirical performance. Learning causes momentum and mean reversion of returns and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium, as in the habit model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), but for lower risk aversion. This is obtained, even though we restrict consideration to learning schemes that imply only small deviations from full rationality. The findings are robust to the particular learning rule used and the value chosen for the single free parameter introduced by learning, provided agents forecast future stock prices using past information on prices. JEL Classification: G12, D84asset pricing, Learning, near-rational price forecasts

Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: equivalence results

In this paper, we analyze the implications of price setting restrictions for the conduct of cyclical fiscal and monetary policy. We consider an environment with monopolistic competitive firms, a shopping time technology, prices set one period in advance, and government expenditures that must be financed with distortionary taxes. We show that the sets of (frontier) implementable allocations are the same independently of the degree of price stickiness. Furthermore, the sets of policies that decentralize each allocation are also the same except in the extreme cases of flexible and sticky prices, where the sets are larger.Fiscal policy ; Monetary policy

Inside-outside money competition

We study how competition from privately supplied currency substitutes affects monetary equilibria. Whenever currency is inefficiently provided, inside money competition plays a disciplinary role by providing an upper bound on equilibrium inflation rates. Furthermore, if "inside monies" can be produced at a sufficiently low cost, outside money is driven out of circulation. Whenever a 'benevolent' government can commit to its fiscal policy, sequential monetary policy is efficient and inside money competition plays no role.Money ; Payment systems