Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

Background: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. Methods: Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. Interpretation: Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council

Building a tuberculosis-free world: The Lancet Commission on tuberculosis

___Key messages___ The Commission recommends five priority investments to achieve a tuberculosis-free world within a generation. These investments are designed to fulfil the mandate of the UN High Level Meeting on tuberculosis. In addition, they answer

Desarrollo, impacto y eficacia de la vacuna conjugada contra Streptococcus pneumoniae en Am\ue9rica Latina

Streptococcus pneumoniae es un microorganismo de frecuente aparici\uf3n como colonizador normal de la nasofaringe y como causante de enfermedad invasora especialmente dentro del grupo de edad de ni\uf1os menores de 5 a\uf1os, generando a nivel mundial una mortalidad de hasta 700 000 casos por a\uf1o en ni\uf1os menores de 2 a\uf1os. El estudio de la antigenicidad capsular del S. pneumoniae ha llevado a la producci\uf3n de vacunas, desde la compuesta por polisac\ue1ridos, inefectiva en el grupo de edad de ni\uf1os menores, a la conjugada que mostr\uf3 alta eficacia (97,4%) en prevenir la forma invasora de la enfermedad neumoc\uf3ccica en quienes completaron las 4 dosis propuestas. En una proyecci\uf3n del cubrimiento en Latinoam\ue9rica con las tres formas conjugadas de la vacuna disponibles, 7 valente, 9 valente y 11 valente, se muestra que la 11 valente cubrir\ueda un alto porcentaje de serotipos causantes de enfermedad invasora neumoc\uf3ccica y respalda la necesidad de implementar las vacunas conjugadas como medida masiva de salud p\ufablica. El objetivo del presente art\uedculo es revisar el comportamiento del neumococo, de la vacuna conjugada disponible en America Latina y su potencial importancia en la regi\uf3

A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial to Reduce Diarrheal Disease and Dengue Entomological Risk Factors in Rural Primary Schools in Colombia

As many neglected tropical diseases are co-endemic and have common risk factors, integrated control can efficiently reduce disease burden and relieve resource-strained public health budgets. Diarrheal diseases and dengue fever are major global health problems sharing common risk factors in water storage containers. Where provision of clean water is inadequate, water storage is crucial. Fecal contamination of stored water is a common source of diarrheal illness, but stored water also provides breeding sites for dengue vector mosquitoes. Integrating improved water management and educational strategies for both diseases in the school environment can potentially improve the health situation for students and the larger community. The objective of this trial was to investigate whether interventions targeting diarrhea and dengue risk factors would significantly reduce absence due to diarrheal disease and dengue entomological risk factors in schools. A factorial cluster randomized controlled trial was carried out in 34 rural primary schools (1,301 pupils) in La Mesa and Anapoima municipalities, Cundinamarca, Colombia. Schools were randomized to one of four study arms: diarrhea interventions (DIA), dengue interventions (DEN), combined diarrhea and dengue interventions (DIADEN), and control (CON). Interventions had no apparent effect on pupil school absence due to diarrheal disease (p = 0.45) or on adult female Aedes aegypti density (p = 0.32) (primary outcomes). However, the dengue interventions reduced the Breteau Index on average by 78% (p = 0.029), with Breteau indices of 10.8 and 6.2 in the DEN and DIADEN arms, respectively compared to 37.5 and 46.9 in the DIA and CON arms, respectively. The diarrhea interventions improved water quality as assessed by the amount of Escherichia coli colony forming units (CFU); the ratio of Williams mean E. coli CFU being 0.22, or 78% reduction (p = 0.008). Integrated control of dengue and diarrhea has never been conducted before. This trial presents an example for application of control strategies that may affect both diseases and the first study to apply such an approach in school settings. The interventions were well received and highly appreciated by students and teachers. An apparent absence of effect in primary outcome indicators could be the result of pupils being exposed to risk factors outside the school area and mosquitoes flying in from nearby uncontrolled breeding sites. Integrated interventions targeting these diseases in a school context remain promising because of the reduced mosquito breeding and improved water quality, as well as educational benefits. However, to improve outcomes in future integrated approaches, simultaneous interventions in communities, in addition to schools, should be considered; using appropriate combinations of site-specific, effective, acceptable, and affordable interventions