World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. METHODS: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. FINDINGS: Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. INTERPRETATION: We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. FUNDING: World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Current preventive strategies and management of Epstein-Barr virus-related post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease in solid organ transplantation in Europe. Results of the ESGICH Questionnaire-based Cross-sectional Survey

peer reviewedThere is limited clinical evidence on the utility of the monitoring of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNAemia in the pre-emptive management of post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (PTLD) in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. We investigated current preventive measures against EBV-related PTLD through a web-based questionnaire sent to 669 SOT programmes in 35 European countries. This study was performed on behalf of the ESGICH study group from the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. A total of 71 SOT programmes from 15 European countries participated in the study. EBV serostatus of the recipient is routinely obtained in 69/71 centres (97%) and 64 (90%) have access to EBV DNAemia assays. EBV monitoring is routinely used in 85.9% of the programmes and 77.4% reported performing pre-emptive treatment for patients with significant EBV DNAemia levels. Pre-emptive treatment for EBV DNAemia included reduction of immunosuppression in 50.9%, switch to mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors in 30.9%, and use of rituximab in 14.5% of programmes. Imaging by whole-body 18-fluoro-deoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) is used in 60.9% of centres to rule out PTLD and complemented computer tomography is used in 50%. In 10.9% of centres, FDG-PET is included in the first-line diagnostic workup in patients with high-risk EBV DNAemia. Despite the lack of definitive evidence, EBV load measurements are frequently used in Europe to guide diagnostic workup and pre-emptive reduction of immunosuppression. We need prospective and controlled studies to define the impact of EBV monitoring in reducing the risk of PTLD in SOT recipients. © 2015 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases

Dark Energy Survey year 1 results: galaxy sample for BAO measurement

We define and characterize a sample of 1.3 million galaxies extracted from the first year of Dark Energy Survey data, optimized to measure baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) in the presence of significant redshift uncertainties. The sample is dominated by luminous red galaxies located at redshifts z ≳ 0.6. We define the exact selection using colour and magnitude cuts that balance the need of high number densities and small photometric redshift uncertainties, using the corresponding forecasted BAO distance error as a figure-of-merit in the process. The typical photo z uncertainty varies from 2.3 percent to 3.6 percent (in units of 1+z) from z = 0.6 to 1, with number densities from 200 to 130 galaxies per deg² in tomographic bins of width Δz = 0.1. Next, we summarize the validation of the photometric redshift estimation. We characterize and mitigate observational systematics including stellar contamination and show that the clustering on large scales is robust in front of those contaminants. We show that the clustering signal in the autocorrelations and cross-correlations is generally consistent with theoretical models, which serve as an additional test of the redshift distributions.ISSN:0035-8711ISSN:1365-296