Ensemble Concerts: The Americana Singers, November 25, 1975

Centennial East Recital HallTuesday EveningNovember 25, 19758:15 p.m

Upfront: Economic news across the region

Economic conditions ; Federal Reserve District, 5th

Upfront - Economic news across the region

Various articles on the Federal Reserve 5th District.Economic conditions ; Federal Reserve District, 5th

Upfront - Economic news across the region

Various articles on the Federal Reserve 5th District.Economic conditions ; Federal Reserve District, 5th

Upfront: Economic news across the region

Articles: "Danville works: new IKEA factory hums;" "Troubled asset relief: Bank of America repays government loans;" "Apples, soybeans, poultry: Virginia's exports to Cuba grow;" "Cash economy: underground commerce grows in recession"Economic conditions ; Federal Reserve District, 5th

PUBLIC INFORMATION BIAS AND PREDICTION MARKET ACCURACY

How do prediction markets achieve high levels of accuracy? We propose that, in some situations, traders in prediction markets improve upon publicly available information. Specifically, when there is a known bias in publicly available information, markets provide an incentive for traders to “de-bias” this information. In such a situation, a prediction market will provide a more accurate forecast than the public information available to traders. We test our conjecture using real-money prediction markets for seven local elections in the United States. We find that the prediction market forecasts are significantly more accurate than those generated using the pre-election polls.Previous versions of this paper were presented at the Workshop on The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets, the ISBM Conference on Prediction Markets in Marketing: Issues, Challenges and Research Opportunities, the DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices, and the 17th Annual AMA Advanced Research Techniques Forum. The authors thank the participants for their insights which have helped improve this researc

The Play-Out Effect and Preference Reversals: Evidence For Noisy Maximization

In this paper, we document a play-out effect in preference reversal experiments. We compare data where preferences are elicited using (1) purely hypothetical gambles, (2) played-out, but unpaid gambles and (3) played-out gambles with truth-revealing monetary payments. We ask whether a model of stable preferences with random errors (e.g., expected utility with errors) can explain the data. The model is strongly rejected in data collected using purely hypothetical gambles. However, simply playing-out the gambles, even in the absence of payments, shifts the data pattern so that noisy maximization is no longer rejected. Inducing risk preferences using a lottery procedure, using monetary incentives or both shift the data pattern further so that noisy maximization achieves the best possible fit to the aggregate data. No model could fit the data better. We argue that play-out shifts the response pattern by inducing value because subjects can use outcomes to keep score. Induction or monetary payments create stronger induced values, shifting the pattern further

INCENTIVE AND ACCURACY ISSUES IN MOVIE PREDICTION MARKETS

We compare the forecasts of nineteen movie box office results from real money (Iowa Electronic Market) and play money (Hollywood Stock Exchange) prediction markets. The forecasts were not significantly different, contrary to recent research on incentives and prediction market accuracy. Proponents of play money incentives suggest that (play) wealth concentrates in the hands of knowledgeable traders over time. This should lead to improved accuracy over time. A longitudinal analysis of results (1999-2002) from the play money Hollywood Stock Exchange fails to find significant improvement over time. This may be due to an increased number of less knowledgeable traders who, nevertheless, provide liquidity in the market

Global divergence of microbial genome sequences mediated by propagating fronts

We model the competition between recombination and point mutation in microbial genomes, and present evidence for two distinct phases, one uniform, the other genetically diverse. Depending on the specifics of homologous recombination, we find that global sequence divergence can be mediated by fronts propagating along the genome, whose characteristic signature on genome structure is elucidated, and apparently observed in closely-related {\it Bacillus} strains. Front propagation provides an emergent, generic mechanism for microbial "speciation", and suggests a classification of microorganisms on the basis of their propensity to support propagating fronts