Controlling for Observed and Unobserved Site Characteristics in Rum Models of Recreation Demand

�Random Utility Maximization (RUM) models of recreation demand are typically plagued by limited information on environmental and other attributes characterizing the available sites in the choice set. To the extent that these unobserved site attributes are correlated with the observed characteristics and/or the key travel cost variable, the resulting parameter estimates and subsequent welfare calculations are likely to be biased. In this paper we develop a Bayesian approach to estimating a RUM model that incorporates a full set of alternative specific constants, insulating the key travel cost parameter from the influence of the unobserved site attributes. In contrast to estimation procedures recently outlined in Murdock (2006), the posterior simulator we propose (combining data augmentation and Gibbs sampling techniques) can be used in the more general mixed logit framework in which some parameters of the conditional utility function are random. Following a series of generated data experiments to illustrate the performance of the simulator, we apply the estimation procedures to data from the Iowa Lakes Project. In contrast to an earlier study using the same data (Egan \textit{et al.} \cite{eganetal}), we find that, with the addition of a full set of alternative specific constants, water quality attributes no longer appear to influence the choice of where to recreate.nonmarket valuation; water quality; discrete choice

The role of anterior cingulate cortex in the affective evaluation of conflict

An influential theory of anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) function argues that this brain region plays a crucial role in the affective evaluation of performance monitoring and control demands. Specifically, control-demanding processes such as response conflict are thought to be registered as aversive signals by ACC, which in turn triggers processing adjustments to support avoidance learning. In support of conflict being treated as an aversive event, recent behavioral studies demonstrated that incongruent (i.e., conflict inducing), relative to congruent, stimuli can speed up subsequent negative, relative to positive, affective picture processing. Here, we used fMRI to investigate directly whether ACC activity in response to negative versus positive pictures is modulated by preceding control demands, consisting of conflict and task-switching conditions. The results show that negative, relative to positive, pictures elicited higher ACC activation after congruent, relative to incongruent, trials, suggesting that ACC's response to negative (positive) pictures was indeed affectively primed by incongruent (congruent) trials. Interestingly, this pattern of results was observed on task repetitions but disappeared on task alternations. This study supports the proposal that conflict induces negative affect and is the first to show that this affective signal is reflected in ACC activation

Affective modulation of cognitive control is determined by performance-contingency and mediated by ventromedial prefrontal and cingulate cortex

Cognitive control requires a fine balance between stability, the protection of an on-going task-set, and flexibility, the ability to update a task-set in line with changing contingencies. It is thought that emotional processing modulates this balance, but results have been equivocal regarding the direction of this modulation. Here, we tested the hypothesis that a crucial determinant of this modulation is whether affective stimuli represent performance-contingent or task-irrelevant signals. Combining functional magnetic resonance imaging with a conflict task-switching paradigm, we contrasted the effects of presenting negative- and positive-valence pictures on the stability/flexibility trade-off in humans, depending on whether picture presentation was contingent on behavioral performance. Both the behavioral and neural expressions of cognitive control were modulated by stimulus valence and performance contingency: in the performance-contingent condition, cognitive flexibility was enhanced following positive pictures, whereas in the nonperformance-contingent condition, positive stimuli promoted cognitive stability. The imaging data showed that, as anticipated, the stability/flexibility trade-off per se was reflected in differential recruitment of dorsolateral frontoparietal and striatal regions. In contrast, the affective modulation of stability/flexibility shifts was mirrored, unexpectedly, by neural responses in ventromedial prefrontal and posterior cingulate cortices, core nodes of the “default mode” network. Our results demonstrate that the affective modulation of cognitive control depends on the performance contingency of the affect-inducing stimuli, and they document medial default mode regions to mediate the flexibility-promoting effects of performance-contingent positive affect, thus extending recent work that recasts these regions as serving a key role in on-task control processes

Dispersal-induced instability in complex ecosystems

In his seminal work in the 1970s Robert May suggested that there was an upper limit to the number of species that could be sustained in stable equilibrium by an ecosystem. This deduction was at odds with both intuition and the observed complexity of many natural ecosystems. The so-called stability-diversity debate ensued, and the discussion about the factors making an ecosystem stable or unstable continues to this day. We show in this work that dispersal can be a destabilising influence. To do this, we combine ideas from Alan Turing's work on pattern formation with May's random-matrix approach. We demonstrate how a stable equilibrium in a complex ecosystem with two trophic levels can become unstable with the introduction of dispersal in space. Conversely, we show that Turing instabilities can occur more easily in complex ecosystems with many species than in the case of only a few species. Our work shows that adding more details to the model of May gives rise to more ways in which an equilibrium can become unstable. Making May's simple model more realistic is therefore unlikely to remove the upper bound on complexity.Comment: 30 pages, 6+1 figure

What Are the Consequences of Consequentiality?

We offer an empirical test of a theoretical result in the contingent valuation literature. Specifically, it has been argued from a theoretical point of view that survey participants who perceive a survey to be ``consequential'' will respond to questions truthfully regardless of the degree of perceived consequentiality. Using survey data from the Iowa Lakes Project, we test this supposition. Specifically, we employ a Bayesian treatment effect model in which the degree of perceived consequentiality, measured as an ordinal response, is permitted to have a structural impact on willingness to pay (WTP) for a hypothetical environmental improvement. We test the theory by determining if the WTP distributions are the same for each value of the ordinal response. In our survey data, a subsample of individuals were randomly assigned supporting information suggesting that their responses to the questionnaires were important and will have an impact on policy decisions. In conjunction with a Bayesian posterior simulator, we use this source of exogenous variation to identify the structural impacts of consequentiality perceptions on willingness to pay, while controlling for the potential of confounding on unobservables. We find evidence consistent with the ``knife-edge'' theoretical results, namely that the willingness to pay distributions are equal among those believing the survey to be at least minimally consequential, and different for those believing that the survey is irrelevant for policy purposes.nonmarket valuation

Modeling the HeII Transverse Proximity Effect: Constraints on Quasar Lifetime and Obscuration

The HeII transverse proximity effect - enhanced HeII Ly{\alpha} transmission in a background sightline caused by the ionizing radiation of a foreground quasar - offers a unique opportunity to probe the emission properties of quasars, in particular the emission geometry (obscuration, beaming) and the quasar lifetime. Building on the foreground quasar survey published in Schmidt+2017, we present a detailed model of the HeII transverse proximity effect, specifically designed to include light travel time effects, finite quasar ages, and quasar obscuration. We post-process outputs from a cosmological hydrodynamical simulation with a fluctuating HeII UV background model, plus the added effect of the radiation from a single bright foreground quasar. We vary the age $t_\mathrm{age}$ and obscured sky fractions $\Omega_\mathrm{obsc}$ of the foreground quasar, and explore the resulting effect on the HeII transverse proximity effect signal. Fluctuations in IGM density and the UV background, as well as the unknown orientation of the foreground quasar, result in a large variance of the HeII Ly{\alpha} transmission along the background sightline. We develop a fully Bayesian statistical formalism to compare far UV HeII Ly{\alpha} transmission spectra of the background quasars to our models, and extract joint constraints on $t_\mathrm{age}$ and $\Omega_\mathrm{obsc}$ for the six Schmidt+2017 foreground quasars with the highest implied HeII photoionization rates. Our analysis suggests a bimodal distribution of quasar emission properties, whereby one foreground quasar, associated with a strong HeII transmission spike, is relatively old $(22\,\mathrm{Myr})$ and unobscured $\Omega_\mathrm{obsc}<35\%$, whereas three others are either younger than $(10\,\mathrm{Myr})$ or highly obscured $(\Omega_\mathrm{obsc}>70\%)$.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Ap

Aquatic Invasive Species Change Ecosystem Services from the World�s Largest Wild Sockeye Salmon Fisheries in Alaska

This study combines a multi-method approach to structured expert judgment with market valuation to forecast fisheries damages from introduced invasive species. The method is applied to a case study of Alaska�s first submersed aquatic invasive plant, Elodea spp., threatening Alaska�s salmon fisheries. Assuming that Elodea spp. remains unmanaged, estimated mean damages to commercial sockeye fisheries aggregated across Alaska amount to a potential $159 million annually with a 5$577 million annually ($2015 USD). The associated mean loss of natural capital amounts to$5.1 billion cumulatively over the next 100 years reaching $400 million after 10 years. Results from the expert elicitation indicate that there is a 35% chance of positive net benefits associated with the believed positive effects of Elodea spp. on sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). Despite the potential for positive net gains, the magnitude of the most probable damage estimate may justify substantial investment in keeping productive freshwater systems free of aquatic invasive species. The damage estimate for Alaska is significantly larger than similar estimates in the Great Lakes where ecosystems are already impaired by multiple aquatic invasive species, underscoring the value of keeping functioning ecosystems with global market value productive. This study is the first to estimate ecosystem service loss associated with introduction of an aquatic invasive species to freshwater habitat that supports the world�s most valuable wild sockeye salmon fisheries. Important policy implications related to natural resource management and efficient allocation of scarce resources are discusse