Impact of the upper tropospheric cooling trend over Central Asia on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and the Bay of Bengal cyclone tracks

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall had three decade long alternate dry and wet epochs during the 150 years from 1840 to 1989. The dry epochs had frequent drought monsoons affecting agriculture, power generation and the overall economy of the country. A high percentage of severe cyclones in the Bay of Bengal moved northwards during the dry epochs causing disasters in Bangladesh, Myanmar and the Indian states of Odisha and West Bengal. These dry epochs have been shown to be associated with the cold phase of the Atlantic multi decadal oscillation in sea-surface temperature. Using the available tropospheric temperature (re-analysis) data since 1948, the recent dry epoch during 1960-89 which had 10 monsoon drought years was found to have cold upper tropospheric temperature anomaly over Central Asia. This cold anomaly region has also experienced a long-term cooling trend. Extrapolating the naturally occurring epochal nature of the ocean-atmosphere system into the future, we fear that the epoch 2020-49 is likely to be another dry one, and the cooling trend over the Asian continent is likely to make it even more severe in its impact than 1960-89. This article presents details of an ocean-atmosphere instability that generates frequent drought monsoons during dry epochs which needs urgent research

Closing the sea surface mixed layer temperature budget from in situ observations alone: Operation Advection during BoBBLE

Sea surface temperature (SST) is a fundamental driver of tropical weather systems such as monsoon rainfall and tropical cyclones. However, understanding of the factors that control SST variability is lacking, especially during the monsoons when in situ observations are sparse. Here we use a ground-breaking observational approach to determine the controls on the SST variability in the southern Bay of Bengal. We achieve this through the first full closure of the ocean mixed layer energy budget derived entirely from in situ observations during the Bay of Bengal Boundary Layer Experiment (BoBBLE). Locally measured horizontal advection and entrainment contribute more significantly than expected to SST evolution and thus oceanic variability during the observation period. These processes are poorly resolved by state-of-the-art climate models, which may contribute to poor representation of monsoon rainfall variability. The novel techniques presented here provide a blueprint for future observational experiments to quantify the mixed layer heat budget on longer time scales and to evaluate these processes in models

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during the summer season (June to September). Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of this circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind stress curl, and upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed coupled ocean-atmosphere system variability timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon subseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet

Evaluation and Management of Anal Intraepithelial Neoplasia in HIV-Negative and HIV-Positive Men Who Have Sex with Men

The incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)–associated anal cancer in men who have sex with men (MSM) is striking and has not been mitigated by the use of highly active antiretroviral therapy. Detection and treatment of high-grade anal intraepithelial neoplasia (HGAIN) may reduce the incidence of anal cancer. Anal cytology is a useful tool to detect HGAIN; annual screening of HIV-positive MSM and biennial screening of HIV-negative MSM appears to be cost-effective. MSM with abnormal cytology should be referred for high-resolution anoscopy and biopsy. Individuals with HGAIN should receive treatment; treatment modalities for HGAIN demonstrate moderate efficacy and are usually well tolerated, but greater study is required to determine which treatment is optimal. Large prospective studies are needed to document the efficacy of screening and treatment of HGAIN on anal cancer incidence. The HPV vaccine holds promise for primary prevention of anal cancer in MSM, but significant implementation challenges remain

Effect of particle size, coupling agent and DDGS additions on Paulownia wood polypropylene composites

Studies aimed at improving the tensile, flexural, impact, thermal, and physical characteristics of wood–plastic composites composed of Paulownia wood flour derived from 36-month-old trees blended with polypropylene were conducted. Composites of 25% and 40% w/w of Paulownia wood were produced by twin-screw compounding and injection molding. Composites containing 0–10% by weight of maleated polypropylene were evaluated and an optimum maleated polypropylene concentration determined, i.e., 5%. The particle size distribution of Paulownia wood filler is shown to have an effect on the tensile and flexural properties of the composites. Novel combination composites of dried distiller’s grain with solubles mixed with Paulownia wood (up to 40% w/w) were produced and their properties evaluated. Depending on the composite tested, soaking composites for 872 h alters mechanical properties and causes weight gain

Disparities and risks of sexually transmissible infections among men who have sex with men in China: a meta-analysis and data synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including Hepatitis B and C virus, are emerging public health risks in China, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aims to assess the magnitude and risks of STIs among Chinese MSM. METHODS: Chinese and English peer-reviewed articles were searched in five electronic databases from January 2000 to February 2013. Pooled prevalence estimates for each STI infection were calculated using meta-analysis. Infection risks of STIs in MSM, HIV-positive MSM and male sex workers (MSW) were obtained. This review followed the PRISMA guidelines and was registered in PROSPERO. RESULTS: Eighty-eight articles (11 in English and 77 in Chinese) investigating 35,203 MSM in 28 provinces were included in this review. The prevalence levels of STIs among MSM were 6.3% (95% CI: 3.5-11.0%) for chlamydia, 1.5% (0.7-2.9%) for genital wart, 1.9% (1.3-2.7%) for gonorrhoea, 8.9% (7.8-10.2%) for hepatitis B (HBV), 1.2% (1.0-1.6%) for hepatitis C (HCV), 66.3% (57.4-74.1%) for human papillomavirus (HPV), 10.6% (6.2-17.6%) for herpes simplex virus (HSV-2) and 4.3% (3.2-5.8%) for Ureaplasma urealyticum. HIV-positive MSM have consistently higher odds of all these infections than the broader MSM population. As a subgroup of MSM, MSW were 2.5 (1.4-4.7), 5.7 (2.7-12.3), and 2.2 (1.4-3.7) times more likely to be infected with chlamydia, gonorrhoea and HCV than the broader MSM population, respectively. CONCLUSION: Prevalence levels of STIs among MSW were significantly higher than the broader MSM population. Co-infection of HIV and STIs were prevalent among Chinese MSM. Integration of HIV and STIs healthcare and surveillance systems is essential in providing effective HIV/STIs preventive measures and treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO NO: CRD42013003721

The Seroprevalence and Seroincidence of Enterovirus71 Infection in Infants and Children in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam

Enterovirus 71 (EV71)-associated hand, foot and mouth disease has emerged as a serious public health problem in South East Asia over the last decade. To better understand the prevalence of EV71 infection, we determined EV71 seroprevalence and seroincidence amongst healthy infants and children in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam. In a cohort of 200 newborns, 55% of cord blood samples contained EV71 neutralizing antibodies and these decayed to undetectable levels by 6 months of age in 98% of infants. The EV71 neutralizing antibody seroconversion rate was 5.6% in the first year and 14% in the second year of life. In children 5–15 yrs of age, seroprevalence of EV71 neutralizing antibodies was 84% and in cord blood it was 55%. Taken together, these data suggest EV71 force of infection is high and highlights the need for more research into its epidemiology and pathogenesis in high disease burden countries

Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2)

Accurate and precise forecasting of the Indian monsoon is important for the socio-economic security of India, with improvements in agriculture and associated sectors from prediction of the monsoon onset. In this study we establish the skill of the UK Met Office coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2, in forecasting Indian monsoon onset. We build on previous work that has demonstrated the good skill of GloSea5 at forecasting interannual variations of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon using measures of large-scale circulation and local precipitation. We analyze the summer hindcasts from a set of three springtime start-dates in late April/early May for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011). The hindcast set features at least fifteen ensemble members for each year and is analyzed using five different objective monsoon indices. These indices are designed to examine large and local-scale measures of the monsoon circulation, hydrological changes, tropospheric temperature gradient, or rainfall for single value (area-averaged) or grid-point measures of the Indian monsoon onset. There is significant correlation between onset dates in the model and those found in reanalysis. Indices based on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic indices are better at estimating monsoon onset in the model rather than local-scale dynamical and hydrological indices. This can be attributed to the model's better representation of large-scale dynamics compared to local-scale features. GloSea5 may not be able to predict the exact date of monsoon onset over India, but this study shows that the model has a good ability at predicting category-wise monsoon onset, using early, normal or late tercile categories. Using a grid-point local rainfall onset index, we note that the forecast skill is highest over parts of central India, the Gangetic plains, and parts of coastal India - all zones of extensive agriculture in India. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in the model improves the forecast skill of monsoon onset when using a large-scale circulation index, with late monsoon onset coinciding with El Niño conditions and early monsoon onset more common in La Niña years. The results of this study suggest that GloSea5's ensemble-mean forecast may be used for reliable Indian monsoon onset prediction a month in advance despite systematic model errors

Exclusive Photoproduction of the Cascade (Xi) Hyperons

We report on the first measurement of exclusive Xi-(1321) hyperon photoproduction in gamma p --> K+ K+ Xi- for 3.2 < E(gamma) < 3.9 GeV. The final state is identified by the missing mass in p(gamma,K+ K+)X measured with the CLAS detector at Jefferson Laboratory. We have detected a significant number of the ground-state Xi-(1321)1/2+, and have estimated the total cross section for its production. We have also observed the first excited state Xi-(1530)3/2+. Photoproduction provides a copious source of Xi's. We discuss the possibilities of a search for the recently proposed Xi5-- and Xi5+ pentaquarks.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev.

Estimating the Accuracy of Anal Cytology in the Presence of an Imperfect Reference Standard

Background: The study aim is to estimate sensitivity and specificity of anal cytology for histologic HSIL in analyses adjusted for the imperfect biopsy reference standard. Methods and Principal Findings: Retrospective cohort study of an anal dysplasia screening program for HIV infected adults. We estimated the prevalence of histologic HSIL by concurrent cytology category and the associated cytology ROC area. Cytology operating characteristics for HSIL were estimated and adjusted for the imperfect reference standard by 3 methodologies. The study cohort included 261 patients with 3 available measures: (1) referral cytology; (2) HRA cytology; and (3) HRA directed biopsy. The prevalence of biopsy HSIL varied according to the concurrent HRA cytology result: 64.5