Techniques to Understand Computer Simulations: Markov Chain Analysis

The aim of this paper is to assist researchers in understanding the dynamics of simulation models that have been implemented and can be run in a computer, i.e. computer models. To do that, we start by explaining (a) that computer models are just input-output functions, (b) that every computer model can be re-implemented in many different formalisms (in particular in most programming languages), leading to alternative representations of the same input-output relation, and (c) that many computer models in the social simulation literature can be usefully represented as time-homogeneous Markov chains. Then we argue that analysing a computer model as a Markov chain can make apparent many features of the model that were not so evident before conducting such analysis. To prove this point, we present the main concepts needed to conduct a formal analysis of any time-homogeneous Markov chain, and we illustrate the usefulness of these concepts by analysing 10 well-known models in the social simulation literature as Markov chains. These models are: • Schelling\'s (1971) model of spatial segregation • Epstein and Axtell\'s (1996) Sugarscape • Miller and Page\'s (2004) standing ovation model • Arthur\'s (1989) model of competing technologies • Axelrod\'s (1986) metanorms models • Takahashi\'s (2000) model of generalized exchange • Axelrod\'s (1997) model of dissemination of culture • Kinnaird\'s (1946) truels • Axelrod and Bennett\'s (1993) model of competing bimodal coalitions • Joyce et al.\'s (2006) model of conditional association In particular, we explain how to characterise the transient and the asymptotic dynamics of these computer models and, where appropriate, how to assess the stochastic stability of their absorbing states. In all cases, the analysis conducted using the theory of Markov chains has yielded useful insights about the dynamics of the computer model under study.Computer Modelling, Simulation, Markov, Stochastic Processes, Analysis, Re-Implementation

Errors and Artefacts in Agent-Based Modelling

The objectives of this paper are to define and classify different types of errors and artefacts that can appear in the process of developing an agent-based model, and to propose activities aimed at avoiding them during the model construction and testing phases. To do this in a structured way, we review the main concepts of the process of developing such a model – establishing a general framework that summarises the process of designing, implementing, and using agent-based models. Within this framework we identify the various stages where different types of errors and artefacts may appear. Finally we propose activities that could be used to detect (and hence eliminate) each type of error or artefact.Verification, Replication, Artefact, Error, Agent-Based Modelling, Modelling Roles

Characterization of the clinical and immunologic phenotype and management of 157 individuals with 56 distinct heterozygous NFKB1 mutations

Background: An increasing number of NFKB1 variants are being identified in patients with heterogeneous immunologic phenotypes. Objective: To characterize the clinical and cellular phenotype as well as the management of patients with heterozygous NFKB1 mutations. Methods: In a worldwide collaborative effort, we evaluated 231 individuals harboring 105 distinct heterozygous NFKB1 variants. To provide evidence for pathogenicity, each variant was assessed in silico; in addition, 32 variants were assessed by functional in vitro testing of nuclear factor of kappa light polypeptide gene enhancer in B cells (NF-kappa B) signaling. Results: We classified 56 of the 105 distinct NFKB1 variants in 157 individuals from 68 unrelated families as pathogenic. Incomplete clinical penetrance (70%) and age-dependent severity of NFKB1-related phenotypes were observed. The phenotype included hypogammaglobulinemia (88.9%), reduced switched memory B cells (60.3%), and respiratory (83%) and gastrointestinal (28.6%) infections, thus characterizing the disorder as primary immunodeficiency. However, the high frequency of autoimmunity (57.4%), lymphoproliferation (52.4%), noninfectious enteropathy (23.1%), opportunistic infections (15.7%), autoinflammation (29.6%), and malignancy (16.8%) identified NF-kappa B1-related disease as an inborn error of immunity with immune dysregulation, rather than a mere primary immunodeficiency. Current treatment includes immunoglobulin replacement and immunosuppressive agents. Conclusions: We present a comprehensive clinical overview of the NF-kappa B1-related phenotype, which includes immunodeficiency, autoimmunity, autoinflammation, and cancer. Because of its multisystem involvement, clinicians from each and every medical discipline need to be made aware of this autosomal-dominant disease. Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and NF-kappa B1 pathway-targeted therapeutic strategies should be considered in the future.Peer reviewe

The Changing Landscape for Stroke\ua0Prevention in AF: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase 2

Background GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) is a prospective, global registry program describing antithrombotic treatment patterns in patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke. Phase 2 began when dabigatran, the first non\u2013vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), became available. Objectives This study sought to describe phase 2 baseline data and compare these with the pre-NOAC era collected during phase 1. Methods During phase 2, 15,641 consenting patients were enrolled (November 2011 to December 2014); 15,092 were eligible. This pre-specified cross-sectional analysis describes eligible patients\u2019 baseline characteristics. Atrial fibrillation disease characteristics, medical outcomes, and concomitant diseases and medications were collected. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results Of the total patients, 45.5% were female; median age was 71 (interquartile range: 64, 78) years. Patients were from Europe (47.1%), North America (22.5%), Asia (20.3%), Latin America (6.0%), and the Middle East/Africa (4.0%). Most had high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age  6575 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex category] score  652; 86.1%); 13.9% had moderate risk (CHA2DS2-VASc = 1). Overall, 79.9% received oral anticoagulants, of whom 47.6% received NOAC and 32.3% vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 12.1% received antiplatelet agents; 7.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. For comparison, the proportion of phase 1 patients (of N = 1,063 all eligible) prescribed VKA was 32.8%, acetylsalicylic acid 41.7%, and no therapy 20.2%. In Europe in phase 2, treatment with NOAC was more common than VKA (52.3% and 37.8%, respectively); 6.0% of patients received antiplatelet treatment; and 3.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. In North America, 52.1%, 26.2%, and 14.0% of patients received NOAC, VKA, and antiplatelet drugs, respectively; 7.5% received no antithrombotic treatment. NOAC use was less common in Asia (27.7%), where 27.5% of patients received VKA, 25.0% antiplatelet drugs, and 19.8% no antithrombotic treatment. Conclusions The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in Asia and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701

TRY plant trait database – enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits - the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants - determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait‐based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits - almost complete coverage for ‘plant growth form’. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait–environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Prevalence, factors associated with, and prognostic effects of preoperative anemia on short- and long-term mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

There is scant information on the prevalence and factors associated with preoperative anemia in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) and whether it is associated with mortality. We sought to determine the prevalence and factors associated with preoperative anemia in addition to the prognostic effects of the various levels of preoperative hemoglobin level on mortality in patients undergoing TAVI

Characterization of the clinical and immunologic phenotype and management of 157 individuals with 56 distinct heterozygous NFKB1 mutations

Background An increasing number of NFKB1 variants are being identified in patients with heterogeneous immunologic phenotypes. Objective To characterize the clinical and cellular phenotype as well as the management of patients with heterozygous NFKB1 mutations. Methods In a worldwide collaborative effort, we evaluated 231 individuals harboring 105 distinct heterozygous NFKB1 variants. To provide evidence for pathogenicity, each variant was assessed in silico; in addition, 32 variants were assessed by functional in vitro testing of nuclear factor of kappa light polypeptide gene enhancer in B cells (NF-κB) signaling. Results We classified 56 of the 105 distinct NFKB1 variants in 157 individuals from 68 unrelated families as pathogenic. Incomplete clinical penetrance (70%) and age-dependent severity of NFKB1-related phenotypes were observed. The phenotype included hypogammaglobulinemia (88.9%), reduced switched memory B cells (60.3%), and respiratory (83%) and gastrointestinal (28.6%) infections, thus characterizing the disorder as primary immunodeficiency. However, the high frequency of autoimmunity (57.4%), lymphoproliferation (52.4%), noninfectious enteropathy (23.1%), opportunistic infections (15.7%), autoinflammation (29.6%), and malignancy (16.8%) identified NF-κB1–related disease as an inborn error of immunity with immune dysregulation, rather than a mere primary immunodeficiency. Current treatment includes immunoglobulin replacement and immunosuppressive agents. Conclusions We present a comprehensive clinical overview of the NF-κB1–related phenotype, which includes immunodeficiency, autoimmunity, autoinflammation, and cancer. Because of its multisystem involvement, clinicians from each and every medical discipline need to be made aware of this autosomal-dominant disease. Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and NF-κB1 pathway–targeted therapeutic strategies should be considered in the future