Local models-based regression trees for very short-term wind speed prediction

This paper evaluates the performance of different types of Regression Trees (RTs) in a real problem of very short-term wind speed prediction from measuring data in wind farms. RT is a solidly established methodology that, contrary to other soft-computing approaches, has been under-explored in problems of wind speed prediction in wind farms. In this paper we comparatively evaluate eight different types of RTs algorithms, and we show that they are able obtain excellent results in real problems of very short-term wind speed prediction, improving existing classical and soft-computing approaches such as multi-linear regression approaches, different types of neural networks and support vector regression algorithms in this problem.We also show that RTs have a very small computation time, that allows the retraining of the algorithms whenever new wind speed data are collected from the measuring towers.Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología ECO2010-22065-C03-02Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología TIN2011-28956-C02Junta de Andalucía P12-TIC-1728Universidad Pablo de Olavide APPB81309

Evolutionary association rules for total ozone content modeling from satellite observations

In this paper we propose an evolutionary method of association rules discovery (EQAR, Evolutionary Quan titative Association Rules) that extends a recently published algorithm by the authors and we describe its ap plication to a problem of Total Ozone Content (TOC) modeling in the Iberian Peninsula. We use TOC data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on board the NASA Nimbus-7 satellite measured at three lo cations (Lisbon, Madrid and Murcia) of the Iberian Peninsula. As prediction variables for the association rules we consider several meteorological variables, such as Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR), Temperature at 50 hPa level, Tropopause height, and wind vertical velocity component at 200 hPa. We show that the best as sociation rules obtained by EQAR are able to accurate modeling the TOC data in the three locations consid ered, providing results which agree to previous works in the literatur

Development of a liver graft assessment expert machine-learning system: when the artificial intelligence helps liver transplant surgeons

BackgroundThe complex process of liver graft assessment is one point for improvement in liver transplantation. The main objective of this study is to develop a tool that supports the surgeon who is responsible for liver donation in the decision-making process whether to accept a graft or not using the initial variables available to it.Material and methodLiver graft samples candidate for liver transplantation after donor brain death were studied. All of them were evaluated “in situ” for transplantation, and those discarded after the “in situ” evaluation were considered as no transplantable liver grafts, while those grafts transplanted after “in situ” evaluation were considered as transplantable liver grafts. First, a single-center, retrospective and cohort study identifying the risk factors associated with the no transplantable group was performed. Then, a prediction model decision support system based on machine learning, and using a tree ensemble boosting classifier that is capable of helping to decide whether to accept or decline a donor liver graft, was developed.ResultsA total of 350 liver grafts that were evaluated for liver transplantation were studied. Steatosis was the most frequent reason for classifying grafts as no transplantable, and the main risk factors identified in the univariant study were age, dyslipidemia, personal medical history, personal surgical history, bilirubinemia, and the result of previous liver ultrasound (p < 0.05). When studying the developed model, we observe that the best performance reordering in terms of accuracy corresponds to 76.29% with an area under the curve of 0.79. Furthermore, the model provides a classification together with a confidence index of reliability, for most cases in our data, with the probability of success in the prediction being above 0.85.ConclusionThe tool presented in this study obtains a high accuracy in predicting whether a liver graft will be transplanted or deemed non-transplantable based on the initial variables assigned to it. The inherent capacity for improvement in the system causes the rate of correct predictions to increase as new data are entered. Therefore, we believe it is a tool that can help optimize the graft pool for liver transplantation

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and adherence to Mediterranean diet in an adult population: the Mediterranean diet index as a pollution level index

Background Research related to sustainable diets is is highly relevant to provide better understanding of the impact of dietary intake on the health and the environment. Aim To assess the association between the adherence to an energy-restricted Mediterranean diet and the amount of CO2 emitted in an older adult population. Design and population Using a cross-sectional design, the association between the adherence to an energy-reduced Mediterranean Diet (erMedDiet) score and dietary CO2 emissions in 6646 participants was assessed. Methods Food intake and adherence to the erMedDiet was assessed using validated food frequency questionnaire and 17-item Mediterranean questionnaire. Sociodemographic characteristics were documented. Environmental impact was calculated through greenhouse gas emissions estimations, specifically CO2 emissions of each participant diet per day, using a European database. Participants were distributed in quartiles according to their estimated CO2 emissions expressed in kg/day: Q1 (= 2.80 kg CO2). Results More men than women induced higher dietary levels of CO2 emissions. Participants reporting higher consumption of vegetables, fruits, legumes, nuts, whole cereals, preferring white meat, and having less consumption of red meat were mostly emitting less kg of CO2 through diet. Participants with higher adherence to the Mediterranean Diet showed lower odds for dietary CO2 emissions: Q2 (OR 0.87; 95%CI: 0.76-1.00), Q3 (OR 0.69; 95%CI: 0.69-0.79) and Q4 (OR 0.48; 95%CI: 0.42-0.55) vs Q1 (reference). Conclusions The Mediterranean diet can be environmentally protective since the higher the adherence to the Mediterranean diet, the lower total dietary CO2 emissions. Mediterranean Diet index may be used as a pollution level index

Isotemporal substitution of inactive time with physical activity and time in bed: cross-sectional associations with cardiometabolic health in the PREDIMEDPlus study

Background: This study explored the association between inactive time and measures of adiposity, clinical parameters, obesity, type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome components. It further examined the impact of reallocating inactive time to time in bed, light physical activity (LPA) or moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) on cardio-metabolic risk factors, including measures of adiposity and body composition, biochemical parameters and blood pressure in older adults. Methods: This is a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from 2189 Caucasian men and women (age 55-75 years, BMI 27-40 Kg/m2) from the PREDIMED-Plus study (http://www.predimedplus.com/). All participants had ≥3 components of the metabolic syndrome. Inactive time, physical activity and time in bed were objectively determined using triaxial accelerometers GENEActiv during 7 days (ActivInsights Ltd., Kimbolton, United Kingdom). Multiple adjusted linear and logistic regression models were used. Isotemporal substitution regression modelling was performed to assess the relationship of replacing the amount of time spent in one activity for another, on each outcome, including measures of adiposity and body composition, biochemical parameters and blood pressure in older adults. Results: Inactive time was associated with indicators of obesity and the metabolic syndrome. Reallocating 30 min per day of inactive time to 30 min per day of time in bed was associated with lower BMI, waist circumference and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) (all p-values < 0.05). Reallocating 30 min per day of inactive time with 30 min per day of LPA or MVPA was associated with lower BMI, waist circumference, total fat, visceral adipose tissue, HbA1c, glucose, triglycerides, and higher body muscle mass and HDL cholesterol (all p-values < 0.05). Conclusions: Inactive time was associated with a poor cardio-metabolic profile. Isotemporal substitution of inactive time with MVPA and LPA or time in bed could have beneficial impact on cardio-metabolic health

Desired weight loss and its association with health, health behaviors and perceptions in an adult population with weight excess: One-year follow-up

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) worsens quality of life and increases mortality. Dissatisfaction with weight in patients with MetS may modify the effect of lifestyle interventions to achieve changes in health-related behaviors. Objective: To assess 1-year changes in cardiovascular risk scores, self-perceived general health and health-related behaviors according to observed changes in desired weight loss during the first year of intervention in a large cardiovascular prevention trial. Design: Prospective analysis of the PREDIMED-PLUS trial, including 5,499 adults (55-75 years old) with overweight or obesity at baseline. Methods: The desired weight loss was the difference between ideal and measured weight. Tertiles of change in desired weight loss (1 year vs. baseline) were defined by the following cut-off points: >= 0.0 kg (T1, n = 1,638); 0.0 to -4.0 kg (T2, n = 1,903); <=-4.0 kg (T3, n = 1,958). A food frequency questionnaire assessed diet and the Minnesota-REGICOR questionnaire assessed physical activity. The Framingham equation assessed cardiovascular risks. The changes in the severity of MetS were also assessed. The Beck Depression Inventory assessed depressive symptoms and the SF-36 assessed health-related quality of life. Data were analyzed using general linear models. Results: BMI decreased at T2 and T3 (T1: 0.3, T2: -0.7, T3: -1.9). The most significant improvement in diet quality was observed at T3. Cardiovascular risk decreased at T2 and T3. Mean reductions in MetS severity score were: -0.02 at T1, -0.39 at T2 and -0.78 at T3. The perception of physical health increases in successive tertiles. Conclusions: In older adults with MetS, more ambitious desired weight loss goals were associated with improvements in diet, cardiovascular health and perceived physical health during the first year of a healthy lifestyle intervention programme. Weight dissatisfaction needs to be considered by health professionals

Regulation of Fn14 Receptor and NF-κB Underlies Inflammation in Meniere’s Disease

Meniere’s disease (MD) is a rare disorder characterized by episodic vertigo, sensorineural hearing loss, tinnitus, and aural fullness. It is associated with a fluid imbalance between the secretion of endolymph in the cochlear duct and its reabsorption into the subarachnoid space, leading to an accumulation of endolymph in the inner ear. Epidemiological evidence, including familial aggregation, indicates a genetic contribution and a consistent association with autoimmune diseases (AD). We conducted a case–control study in two phases using an immune genotyping array in a total of 420 patients with bilateral MD and 1,630 controls. We have identified the first locus, at 6p21.33, suggesting an association with bilateral MD [meta-analysis leading signal rs4947296, OR = 2.089 (1.661–2.627); p = 1.39 × 10−09]. Gene expression profiles of homozygous genotype-selected peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) demonstrated that this region is a trans-expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) in PBMCs. Signaling analysis predicted several tumor necrosis factor-related pathways, the TWEAK/Fn14 pathway being the top candidate (p = 2.42 × 10−11). This pathway is involved in the modulation of inflammation in several human AD, including multiple sclerosis, systemic lupus erythematosus, or rheumatoid arthritis. In vitro studies with genotype-selected lymphoblastoid cells from patients with MD suggest that this trans-eQTL may regulate cellular proliferation in lymphoid cells through the TWEAK/Fn14 pathway by increasing the translation of NF-κB. Taken together; these findings suggest that the carriers of the risk genotype may develop an NF-κB-mediated inflammatory response in MD

Dietary diversity and nutritional adequacy among an older Spanish population with Metabolic Syndrome in the PREDIMED-Plus study: a cross-sectional analysis

Dietary guidelines emphasize the importance of a varied diet to provide an adequate nutrient intake. However, an older age is often associated with consumption of monotonous diets that can be nutritionally inadequate, increasing the risk for the development or progression of diet-related chronic diseases, such as metabolic syndrome (MetS). To assess the association between dietary diversity (DD) and nutrient intake adequacy and to identify demographic variables associated with DD, we cross-sectionally analyzed baseline data from the PREDIMED-Plus trial: 6587 Spanish adults aged 55–75 years, with overweight/obesity who also had MetS. An energy-adjusted dietary diversity score (DDS) was calculated using a 143-item validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Nutrient inadequacy was defined as an intake below 2/3 of the dietary reference intake (DRI) forat least four of 17 nutrients proposed by the Institute of Medicine (IOM). Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between DDS and the risk of nutritionally inadequate intakes. In the higher DDS quartile there were more women and less current smokers. Compared with subjects in the highest DDS quartile, those in the lowest DDS quartile had a higher risk of inadequate nutrient intake: odds ratio (OR) = 28.56 (95% confidence interval (CI) 20.80–39.21). When we estimated food varietyfor each of the food groups, participants in the lowest quartile had a higher risk of inadequate nutrient intake for the groups of vegetables, OR = 14.03 (95% CI 10.55–18.65), fruits OR = 11.62 (95% CI 6.81–19.81), dairy products OR = 6.54 (95% CI 4.64–9.22) and protein foods OR = 6.60 (95% CI 1.96–22.24). As DDS decreased, the risk of inadequate nutrients intake rose. Given the impact of nutrient intake adequacy on the prevention of non-communicable diseases, health policies should focus on the promotion of a healthy varied diet, specifically promoting the intake of vegetables and fruit among population groups with lower DDS such as men, smokers or widow(er)s. View Full-Tex

The Helicobacter pylori Genome Project : insights into H. pylori population structure from analysis of a worldwide collection of complete genomes

Helicobacter pylori, a dominant member of the gastric microbiota, shares co-evolutionary history with humans. This has led to the development of genetically distinct H. pylori subpopulations associated with the geographic origin of the host and with differential gastric disease risk. Here, we provide insights into H. pylori population structure as a part of the Helicobacter pylori Genome Project (HpGP), a multi-disciplinary initiative aimed at elucidating H. pylori pathogenesis and identifying new therapeutic targets. We collected 1011 well-characterized clinical strains from 50 countries and generated high-quality genome sequences. We analysed core genome diversity and population structure of the HpGP dataset and 255 worldwide reference genomes to outline the ancestral contribution to Eurasian, African, and American populations. We found evidence of substantial contribution of population hpNorthAsia and subpopulation hspUral in Northern European H. pylori. The genomes of H. pylori isolated from northern and southern Indigenous Americans differed in that bacteria isolated in northern Indigenous communities were more similar to North Asian H. pylori while the southern had higher relatedness to hpEastAsia. Notably, we also found a highly clonal yet geographically dispersed North American subpopulation, which is negative for the cag pathogenicity island, and present in 7% of sequenced US genomes. We expect the HpGP dataset and the corresponding strains to become a major asset for H. pylori genomics