Physicians' database searches as a tool for early detection of epidemics.

We analyzed retrospectively the use of Physician Desk Reference Database searches to identify epidemics of tularemia, nephropathy, Pogosta disease, and Lyme disease and compared the searches with mandatory laboratory reports to the National Infectious Diseases Register in Finland during 1995. Continuous recording of such searches may be a tool for early detection of epidemics

Web Queries as a Source for Syndromic Surveillance

In the field of syndromic surveillance, various sources are exploited for outbreak detection, monitoring and prediction. This paper describes a study on queries submitted to a medical web site, with influenza as a case study. The hypothesis of the work was that queries on influenza and influenza-like illness would provide a basis for the estimation of the timing of the peak and the intensity of the yearly influenza outbreaks that would be as good as the existing laboratory and sentinel surveillance. We calculated the occurrence of various queries related to influenza from search logs submitted to a Swedish medical web site for two influenza seasons. These figures were subsequently used to generate two models, one to estimate the number of laboratory verified influenza cases and one to estimate the proportion of patients with influenza-like illness reported by selected General Practitioners in Sweden. We applied an approach designed for highly correlated data, partial least squares regression. In our work, we found that certain web queries on influenza follow the same pattern as that obtained by the two other surveillance systems for influenza epidemics, and that they have equal power for the estimation of the influenza burden in society. Web queries give a unique access to ill individuals who are not (yet) seeking care. This paper shows the potential of web queries as an accurate, cheap and labour extensive source for syndromic surveillance

Computerized general practice based networks yield comparable performance with sentinel data in monitoring epidemiological time-course of influenza-like illness and acute respiratory illness

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Computerized morbidity registration networks might serve as early warning systems in a time where natural epidemics such as the H₁N₁flu can easily spread from one region to another.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this contribution we examine whether general practice based broad-spectrum computerized morbidity registration networks have the potential to act as a valid surveillance instrument of frequently occurring diseases. We compare general practice based computerized data assessing the frequency of influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) with data from a well established case-specific sentinel network, the European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS). The overall frequency and trends of weekly ILI and ARI data are compared using both networks.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Detection of influenza-like illness and acute respiratory illness occurs equally fast in EISS and the computerized network. The overall frequency data for ARI are the same for both networks, the overall trends are similar, but the increases and decreases in frequency do not occur in exactly the same weeks. For ILI, the overall rate was slightly higher for the computerized network population, especially before the increase of ILI, the overall trend was almost identical and the increases and decreases occur in the same weeks for both networks.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Computerized morbidity registration networks are a valid tool for monitoring frequent occurring respiratory diseases and the detection of sudden outbreaks.</p

First detection of VHE gamma-ray emission from TXS 1515-273, study of its X-ray variability and spectral energy distribution

We report here on the first multi-wavelength (MWL) campaign on the blazar TXS 1515-273, undertaken in 2019 and extending from radio to very-high-energy gamma rays (VHE). Up until now, this blazar had not been the subject of any detailed MWL observations. It has a rather hard photon index at GeV energies and was considered a candidate extreme high-synchrotronpeaked source. MAGIC observations resulted in the first-time detection of the source in VHE with a statistical significance of 7.6$\sigma$. The average integral VHE flux of the source is 6 $\pm$ 1% of the Crab nebula flux above 400 GeV. X-ray coverage was provided by Swift-XRT, XMMNewton, and NuSTAR. The long continuous X-ray observations were separated by $\sim$ 9 h, both showing clear hour scale flares. In the XMM-Newton data, both the rise and decay timescales are longer in the soft X-ray than in the hard X-ray band, indicating the presence of a particle cooling regime. The X-ray variability timescales were used to constrain the size of the emission region and the strength of the magnetic field. The data allowed us to determine the synchrotron peak frequency and classify the source as a flaring high, but not extreme, synchrotron peaked object. Considering the constraints and variability patterns from the X-ray data, we model the broad-band spectral energy distribution. We applied a simple one-zone model, which could not reproduce the radio emission and the shape of the optical emission, and a two-component leptonic model with two interacting components, enabling us to reproduce the emission from radio to VHE band

Externalizing, internalizing and fostering commitment: the case of born-global firms in emerging economies

This paper examines the HR practices of mature born-global firms from twenty-nine emerging economies. Through an examination of large scale survey data the paper questions the extent to which firm size impacts the employment of temporary workers, the employment of skilled workers and the extent of employee training. Findings suggest that as firm size increases the use of temporary workers decreases, the number of skilled workers increases and the number of employees receiving training also increases. The paper highlights how born-global firms are able to shift away from externalized, market-based approaches towards more internalized, commitment-based approaches in order to survive, adapt and grow

Polarized blazar X-rays imply particle acceleration in shocks

Most of the light from blazars, active galactic nuclei with jets of magnetized plasma that point nearly along the line of sight, is produced by high-energy particles, up to around 1 TeV. Although the jets are known to be ultimately powered by a supermassive black hole, how the particles are accelerated to such high energies has been an unanswered question. The process must be related to the magnetic field, which can be probed by observations of the polarization of light from the jets. Measurements of the radio to optical polarization—the only range available until now—probe extended regions of the jet containing particles that left the acceleration site days to years earlier1,2,3, and hence do not directly explore the acceleration mechanism, as could X-ray measurements. Here we report the detection of X-ray polarization from the blazar Markarian 501 (Mrk 501). We measure an X-ray linear polarization degree ΠX of around 10%, which is a factor of around 2 higher than the value at optical wavelengths, with a polarization angle parallel to the radio jet. This points to a shock front as the source of particle acceleration and also implies that the plasma becomes increasingly turbulent with distance from the shock

Multiwavelength Observations of the Blazar VER J0521+211 during an Elevated TeV Gamma-Ray State

We report on a long-lasting, elevated gamma-ray flux state from VER J0521+211 observed by VERITAS, MAGIC, and Fermi-LAT in 2013 and 2014. The peak integral flux above 200 GeV measured with the nightly binned light curve is (8.8 ± 0.4) × 10-7 photons m-2 s-1, or ∼37% of the Crab Nebula flux. Multiwavelength observations from X-ray, UV, and optical instruments are also presented. A moderate correlation between the X-ray and TeV gamma-ray fluxes was observed, and the X-ray spectrum appeared harder when the flux was higher. Using the gamma-ray spectrum and four models of the extragalactic background light (EBL), a conservative 95% confidence upper limit on the redshift of the source was found to be z ≤ 0.31. Unlike the gamma-ray and X-ray bands, the optical flux did not increase significantly during the studied period compared to the archival low-state flux. The spectral variability from optical to X-ray bands suggests that the synchrotron peak of the spectral energy distribution (SED) may become broader during flaring states, which can be adequately described with a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model varying the high-energy end of the underlying particle spectrum. The synchrotron peak frequency of the SED and the radio morphology of the jet from the MOJAVE program are consistent with the source being an intermediate-frequency-peaked BL Lac object

MAGIC observations provide compelling evidence of hadronic multi-TeV emission from the putative PeVatron SNR G106.3+2.7

Context. Certain types of supernova remnants (SNRs) in our Galaxy are assumed to be PeVatrons, capable of accelerating cosmic rays (CRs) to ∼ PeV energies. However, conclusive observational evidence for this has not yet been found. The SNR G106.3+2.7, detected at 1- 100 TeV energies by different γ-ray facilities, is one of the most promising PeVatron candidates. This SNR has a cometary shape, which can be divided into a head and a tail region with different physical conditions. However, in which region the 100 TeV emission is produced has not yet been identified because of the limited position accuracy and/or angular resolution of existing observational data. Additionally, it remains unclear as to whether the origin of the γ-ray emission is leptonic or hadronic. Aims. With the better angular resolution provided by new MAGIC data compared to earlier γ-ray datasets, we aim to reveal the acceleration site of PeV particles and the emission mechanism by resolving the SNR G106.3+2.7 with 0.1 resolution at TeV energies. Methods. We observed the SNR G106.3+2.7 using the MAGIC telescopes for 121.7 h in total - after quality cuts - between May 2017 and August 2019. The analysis energy threshold is ∼0.2 TeV, and the angular resolution is 0.07-0.1. We examined the γ-ray spectra of different parts of the emission, whilst benefitting from the unprecedented statistics and angular resolution at these energies provided by our new data. We also used measurements at other wavelengths such as radio, X-rays, GeV γ-rays, and 10 TeV γ-rays to model the emission mechanism precisely. Results. We detect extended γ-ray emission spatially coincident with the radio continuum emission at the head and tail of SNR G106.3+2.7. The fact that we detect a significant γ-ray emission with energies above 6.0 TeV from only the tail region suggests that the emissions above 10 TeV detected with air shower experiments (Milagro, HAWC, Tibet ASγ and LHAASO) are emitted only from the SNR tail. Under this assumption, the multi-wavelength spectrum of the head region can be explained with either hadronic or leptonic models, while the leptonic model for the tail region is in contradiction with the emission above 10 TeV and X-rays. In contrast, the hadronic model could reproduce the observed spectrum at the tail by assuming a proton spectrum with a cutoff energy of ∼1 PeV for that region. Such high-energy emission in this middle-aged SNR (4-10 kyr) can be explained by considering a scenario where protons escaping from the SNR in the past interact with surrounding dense gases at present. Conclusions. The γ-ray emission region detected with the MAGIC telescopes in the SNR G106.3+2.7 is extended and spatially coincident with the radio continuum morphology. The multi-wavelength spectrum of the emission from the tail region suggests proton acceleration up to ∼PeV, while the emission mechanism of the head region could either be hadronic or leptonic

Long-term multi-wavelength study of 1ES 0647+250

The BL Lac object 1ES 0647+250 is one of the few distant $\gamma$-ray emitting blazars detected at very high energies (VHE, $\gtrsim$100 GeV) during a non-flaring state. It was detected with the MAGIC telescopes during its low activity in the years 2009-2011, as well as during three flaring activities in the years 2014, 2019 and 2020, with the highest VHE flux in the latter epoch. An extensive multi-instrument data set was collected within several coordinated observing campaigns throughout these years. We aim to characterise the long-term multi-band flux variability of 1ES 0647+250, as well as its broadband spectral energy distribution (SED) during four distinct activity states selected in four different epochs, in order to constrain the physical parameters of the blazar emission region under certain assumptions. We evaluate the variability and correlation of the emission in the different energy bands with the fractional variability and the Z-transformed Discrete Correlation Function, as well as its spectral evolution in X-rays and $\gamma$ rays. Owing to the controversy in the redshift measurements of 1ES 0647+250 reported in the literature, we also estimate its distance in an indirect manner through the comparison of the GeV and TeV spectra from simultaneous observations with Fermi-LAT and MAGIC during the strongest flaring activity detected to date. Moreover, we interpret the SEDs from the four distinct activity states within the framework of one-component and two-component leptonic models, proposing specific scenarios that are able to reproduce the available multi-instrument data.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures. Accepted in A&A. Corresponding authors: Jorge Otero-Santos; Daniel Morcuende; Vandad Fallah Ramazani; Daniela Dorner; David Paneque (mailto: [email protected]