Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Behavior in Chile

The purpose of this study is to analyze bank behavior in Chile over time, exploring how their balance sheets and performance move in both the short and the long run, and their reaction to macroeconomic shocks. The evolution of banking aggregates over an 18-year period (1989- 2006), using quarterly data is examined. Techniques common in the real business cycle literature are applied to establish empirical patterns. Robustness tests using several filters are performed. The effects of macro shocks on banking variables are analyzed, both by means of an event study, and by estimating impulse responses with VARs. The results show that credit lags the cycle, demand deposits lead it, both being procyclical, while the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is countercyclical. In addition, a shock to interest rates reduces loans (total, commercial, consumption), and increases non-performing loans (NPL) and the capital adequacy ratio (CAR). A shock to GDP growth has a positive effect on loans and ROE, and a negative impact on NPL and CAR.

A recipe for an unpredictable random number generator

In this work we present a model for computation of random processes in digital computers which solves the problem of periodic sequences and hidden errors produced by correlations. We show that systems with non-invertible non-linearities can produce unpredictable sequences of independent random numbers. We illustrate our result with some numerical calculations related with random walks simulations.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, Proceedings Mochima spring school in theoretial physic

A Tutte polynomial inequality for lattice path matroids

Let $M$ be a matroid without loops or coloops and let $T(M;x,y)$ be its Tutte polynomial. In 1999 Merino and Welsh conjectured that $$\max(T(M;2,0), T(M;0,2))\geq T(M;1,1)$$ holds for graphic matroids. Ten years later, Conde and Merino proposed a multiplicative version of the conjecture which implies the original one. In this paper we prove the multiplicative conjecture for the family of lattice path matroids (generalizing earlier results on uniform and Catalan matroids). In order to do this, we introduce and study particular lattice path matroids, called snakes, used as building bricks to indeed establish a strengthening of the multiplicative conjecture as well as a complete characterization of the cases in which equality holds.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, improved exposition/minor correction

Building-up local management models towards urban sustainability

Sustainable urban development implies a complex management agenda that considers the severe risks associated with the way cities evolve – and the often irreversible nature of their unsustainable growth. This agenda requires specific management models. However, in developing countries, public and community institutions which converge (in subjects, territories, times and policies) in addressing or managing urban evolution are usually characterized by multiplicities and fragmentations, redundancies and emptiness, as well as by contradictory (and even divergent or conflictive) rationalities and speeds. Overlapping of various jurisdictional scales is worsened by their institutional disconnections based on the survival of technical / departmental cleavages and also conceptual and ideological disarticulation between policies – even those ones programmed by a same governmental area. These management scenarios inhibit them to address the complexity of the systemic linkages between physical, functional, economic and social processes that characterize urbanization processes, and preclude States from steering cities’ transition towards increasingly sustainable development patterns, articulating planning, decision- making and operation of institutional goals, policies and actions. These barriers and constraints to integrating the management of sustainability have a quasi-fractal character. Their manifestations can usually be identified at every single point – from macro to micro, from operational to political levels and vice-versa – of the logical sequence that connects all components of management models. Thus, current management patterns at local levels actually enhance and (re)produce differential vulnerabilities and urban un-sustainability. The paper argues that the nature of these types of decisional processes and circuits is essentially political - and not only “technically rational”, as prescriptive institutional design models indicate. Transversal articulations require the systematic and progressive building-up of specific management models and – moreover – promoting continuous inter-institutional learning strategies. It is suggested that these strategies not only may constitute sustainable urban projects but they may also act as their feasibility conditions. Thus, an important task ahead lies in the sphere of local governance, seeking ways to integrate research, assessment and decision-support activities into the design of appropriate management models. It is argued that when focus is placed on the development and progressive implementation of relational models – in fact, boundary organizations – at the local level, this may effectively foster joint learning as well as build-up institutional settings oriented to manage transitions to sustainability. To this end, the paper explores the potentiality of several conceptual frameworks, organizational clues and communication/planning instrumentsFacultad de Arquitectura y Urbanism

Inside the States: building-up local management models for territorial sustainability

La Inteligencia Territorial requiere que actores con diferentes pertenencias y perfiles que inciden o controlan distintos tipos de conocimientos y recursos, desarrollen entre sí interacciones constructivas y potentes. El artículo explora algunas restricciones críticas que suelen entorpecer la capacidad de los Estados para participar plenamente en este tipo de emprendimientos y sugiere estrategias para la construcción progresiva de interfases efectivas.Territorial intelligence requires (is based on) powerful constructive interactions among actors with diverse backgrounds and who influence and control different types of knowledge and resources. The paper explores some critical constraints which may preclude the Statesfrom fully contributing to these types of environments and suggest strategies to build-up effective interfaces.Facultad de Arquitectura y Urbanism

Building-up local management models towards urban sustainability

Sustainable urban development implies a complex management agenda that considers the severe risks associated with the way cities evolve – and the often irreversible nature of their unsustainable growth. This agenda requires specific management models. However, in developing countries, public and community institutions which converge (in subjects, territories, times and policies) in addressing or managing urban evolution are usually characterized by multiplicities and fragmentations, redundancies and emptiness, as well as by contradictory (and even divergent or conflictive) rationalities and speeds. Overlapping of various jurisdictional scales is worsened by their institutional disconnections based on the survival of technical / departmental cleavages and also conceptual and ideological disarticulation between policies – even those ones programmed by a same governmental area. These management scenarios inhibit them to address the complexity of the systemic linkages between physical, functional, economic and social processes that characterize urbanization processes, and preclude States from steering cities’ transition towards increasingly sustainable development patterns, articulating planning, decision- making and operation of institutional goals, policies and actions. These barriers and constraints to integrating the management of sustainability have a quasi-fractal character. Their manifestations can usually be identified at every single point – from macro to micro, from operational to political levels and vice-versa – of the logical sequence that connects all components of management models. Thus, current management patterns at local levels actually enhance and (re)produce differential vulnerabilities and urban un-sustainability. The paper argues that the nature of these types of decisional processes and circuits is essentially political - and not only “technically rational”, as prescriptive institutional design models indicate. Transversal articulations require the systematic and progressive building-up of specific management models and – moreover – promoting continuous inter-institutional learning strategies. It is suggested that these strategies not only may constitute sustainable urban projects but they may also act as their feasibility conditions. Thus, an important task ahead lies in the sphere of local governance, seeking ways to integrate research, assessment and decision-support activities into the design of appropriate management models. It is argued that when focus is placed on the development and progressive implementation of relational models – in fact, boundary organizations – at the local level, this may effectively foster joint learning as well as build-up institutional settings oriented to manage transitions to sustainability. To this end, the paper explores the potentiality of several conceptual frameworks, organizational clues and communication/planning instrumentsFacultad de Arquitectura y Urbanism

Spherical collapse in quintessence models with zero speed of sound

We study the spherical collapse model in the presence of quintessence with negligible speed of sound. This case is particularly motivated for w<-1 as it is required by stability. As pressure gradients are negligible, quintessence follows dark matter during the collapse. The spherical overdensity behaves as a separate closed FLRW universe, so that its evolution can be studied exactly. We derive the critical overdensity for collapse and we use the extended Press-Schechter theory to study how the clustering of quintessence affects the dark matter mass function. The effect is dominated by the modification of the linear dark matter growth function. A larger effect occurs on the total mass function, which includes the quintessence overdensities. Indeed, here quintessence constitutes a third component of virialized objects, together with baryons and dark matter, and contributes to the total halo mass by a fraction ~ (1+w) Omega_Q / Omega_m. This gives a distinctive modification of the total mass function at low redshift.Comment: 38 pages; small changes, including modification of the window function. JCAP published versio