Three-dimensional gonihedric spin system

We perform Monte Carlo simulations of a three-dimensional spin system with a Hamiltonian which contains only four-spin interaction term. This system describes random surfaces with extrinsic curvature - gonihedric action. We study the anisotropic model when the coupling constants $\beta_S$ for the space-like plaquettes and $\beta_T$ for the transverse-like plaquettes are different. In the two limits $\beta_S=0$ and $\beta_T=0$ the system has been solved exactly and the main interest is to see what happens when we move away from these points towards the isotropic point, where we recover the original model. We find that the phase transition is of first order for $\beta_T = \beta_S \approx 0.25,$ while away from this point it becomes weaker and eventually turns to a crossover. The conclusion which can be drown from this result is that the exact solution at the point $\beta_S =0$ in terms of 2d-Ising model should be considered as a good zero order approximation in the description of the system also at the isotropic point $\beta_S =\beta_T$ and clearly confirms the earlier findings that at the isotropic point the original model shows a first order phase transition.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, shortened versio

On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases

The vertical profile of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes has traditionally represented an important diagnostic for the attribution of the cooling effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO2 increases. However, CO2-induced cooling alters ozone abundance by perturbing ozone chemistry, thereby coupling the stratospheric ozone and temperature responses to changes in CO2 and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Here we untangle the ozone-temperature coupling and show that the attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes to CO2 and ODS changes (which are the true anthropogenic forcing agents) can be quite different from the traditional attribution to CO2 and ozone changes. The significance of these effects is quantified empirically using simulations from a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model. The results confirm the essential validity of the traditional approach in attributing changes during the past period of rapid ODS increases, although we find that about 10% of the upper stratospheric ozone decrease from ODS increases over the period 1975–1995 was offset by the increase in CO2, and the CO2-induced cooling in the upper stratosphere has been somewhat overestimated. When considering ozone recovery, however, the ozone-temperature coupling is a first-order effect; fully 2/5 of the upper stratospheric ozone increase projected to occur from 2010–2040 is attributable to CO2 increases. Thus, it has now become necessary to base attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes on CO2 and ODS changes rather than on CO2 and ozone changes

Inertial forces and the foundations of optical geometry

Assuming a general timelike congruence of worldlines as a reference frame, we derive a covariant general formalism of inertial forces in General Relativity. Inspired by the works of Abramowicz et. al. (see e.g. Abramowicz and Lasota, Class. Quantum Grav. 14 (1997) A23), we also study conformal rescalings of spacetime and investigate how these affect the inertial force formalism. While many ways of describing spatial curvature of a trajectory has been discussed in papers prior to this, one particular prescription (which differs from the standard projected curvature when the reference is shearing) appears novel. For the particular case of a hypersurface-forming congruence, using a suitable rescaling of spacetime, we show that a geodesic photon is always following a line that is spatially straight with respect to the new curvature measure. This fact is intimately connected to Fermat's principle, and allows for a certain generalization of the optical geometry as will be further pursued in a companion paper (Jonsson and Westman, Class. Quantum Grav. 23 (2006) 61). For the particular case when the shear-tensor vanishes, we present the inertial force equation in three-dimensional form (using the bold face vector notation), and note how similar it is to its Newtonian counterpart. From the spatial curvature measures that we introduce, we derive corresponding covariant differentiations of a vector defined along a spacetime trajectory. This allows us to connect the formalism of this paper to that of Jantzen et. al. (see e.g. Bini et. al., Int. J. Mod. Phys. D 6 (1997) 143).Comment: 42 pages, 7 figure

The effect of nonlinearity in CO2 heating rates on the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes

An analysis of the attribution of past and future changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature to anthropogenic forcings is presented. The analysis is an extension of the study of Shepherd and Jonsson (2008) who analyzed chemistry-climate simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) and attributed both past and future changes to changes in the external forcings, i.e. the abundances of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and well-mixed greenhouse gases. The current study is based on a new CMAM dataset and includes two important changes. First, we account for the nonlinear radiative response to changes in CO2. It is shown that over centennial time scales the radiative response in the upper stratosphere to CO2 changes is significantly nonlinear and that failure to account for this effect leads to a significant error in the attribution. To our knowledge this nonlinearity has not been considered before in attribution analysis, including multiple linear regression studies. For the regression analysis presented here the nonlinearity was taken into account by using CO2 heating rate, rather than CO2 abundance, as the explanatory variable. This approach yields considerable corrections to the results of the previous study and can be recommended to other researchers. Second, an error in the way the CO2 forcing changes are implemented in the CMAM was corrected, which significantly affects the results for the recent past. As the radiation scheme, based on Fomichev et al. (1998), is used in several other models we provide some description of the problem and how it was fixed

Influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on the polar mesopause region as simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

It is well established that variations in polar stratospheric winds can affect mesospheric temperatures through changes in the filtering of gravity wave fluxes, which drive a residual circulation in the mesosphere. The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model(CMAM) is used to examine this vertical coupling mechanism in the context of the mesospheric response to the Antarctic ozone hole. It is found that the response differs significantly between late spring and early summer, because of a changing balance between the competing effects of parametrised gravity wavedrag (GWD)and changes in resolved wave drag local to the mesosphere. In late spring, the strengthened stratospheric westerlies arising from the ozone hole lead to reduced eastward GWD in the mesosphere and a warming of the polar mesosphere, just as in the well known mesospheric response to sudden stratospheric warmings, but with an opposite sign.In early summer, with easterly flow revailing over most of the polar stratosphere,the strengthened easterly wind shear within the mesosphere arising from the west ward GWD anomaly induces a positive resolved wave drag anomaly through baroclinic instability. The polar cooling induced by this process completely dominates the upper mesospheric response to the ozone hole in early summer. Consequences for the past and future evolution of noctilucent clouds are discusse

A method for merging nadir-sounding climate records, with an application to the global-mean stratospheric temperature data sets from SSU and AMSU

A method is proposed for merging different nadir-sounding climate data records using measurements from high-resolution limb sounders to provide a transfer function between the different nadir measurements. The two nadir-sounding records need not be overlapping so long as the limb-sounding record bridges between them. The method is applied to global-mean stratospheric temperatures from the NOAA Climate Data Records based on the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU), extending the SSU record forward in time to yield a continuous data set from 1979 to present, and providing a simple framework for extending the SSU record into the future using AMSU. SSU and AMSU are bridged using temperature measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), which is of high enough vertical resolution to accurately represent the weighting functions of both SSU and AMSU. For this application, a purely statistical approach is not viable since the different nadir channels are not sufficiently linearly independent, statistically speaking. The near-global-mean linear temperature trends for extended SSU for 1980–2012 are −0.63 ± 0.13, −0.71 ± 0.15 and −0.80 ± 0.17 K decade−1 (95 % confidence) for channels 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The extended SSU temperature changes are in good agreement with those from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite, with both exhibiting a cooling trend of ~ 0.6 ± 0.3 K decade−1 in the upper stratosphere from 2004 to 2012. The extended SSU record is found to be in agreement with high-top coupled atmosphere–ocean models over the 1980–2012 period, including the continued cooling over the first decade of the 21st century

Climate Change, ecosystem impacts and systemic risk

This report highlights some of the vital dependencies of human societies on ecosystems, the damages that can occur from them as a result of climate change, and the steps required to better understand and characterise the systemic risks to societies that result from such climate change-driven ecosystem damages

Long-Time Dynamics of Variable Coefficient mKdV Solitary Waves

We study the Korteweg-de Vries-type equation dt u=-dx(dx^2 u+f(u)-B(t,x)u), where B is a small and bounded, slowly varying function and f is a nonlinearity. Many variable coefficient KdV-type equations can be rescaled into this equation. We study the long time behaviour of solutions with initial conditions close to a stable, B=0 solitary wave. We prove that for long time intervals, such solutions have the form of the solitary wave, whose centre and scale evolve according to a certain dynamical law involving the function B(t,x), plus an H^1-small fluctuation.Comment: 19 page

Impact of changes to reimbursement of fixed combinations of inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting β₂ -agonists in obstructive lung diseases: a population-based, observational study.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.In 2010, the Icelandic government introduced a new cost-saving policy that limited reimbursement of fixed inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting β₂ -agonist (ICS/LABA) combinations.This population-based, retrospective, observational study assessed the effects of this policy change by linking specialist/primary care medical records with data from the Icelandic Pharmaceutical Database. The policy change took effect on 1 January 2010 (index date); data for the year preceding and following this date were analysed in 8241 patients with controlled/partly controlled asthma and/or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who had been dispensed an ICS/LABA during 2009. Oral corticosteroid (OCS) and short-acting β₂ -agonist (SABA) use, and healthcare visits, were assessed pre- and post-index.The ICS/LABA reimbursement policy change led to 47.8% fewer fixed ICS/LABA combinations being dispensed during the post-index period among patients whose asthma and/or COPD was controlled/partly controlled during the pre-index period. Fewer ICS monocomponents were also dispensed. A total of 48.6% of patients were no longer receiving any respiratory medications after the policy change. This was associated with reduced disease control, as demonstrated by more healthcare visits (44.0%), and more OCS (76.3%) and SABA (51.2%) dispensations.Overall, these findings demonstrate that changes in healthcare policy and medication reimbursement can directly impact medication use and, consequently, clinical outcomes and should, therefore, be made cautiously.AstraZenec

Condensation in nongeneric trees

We study nongeneric planar trees and prove the existence of a Gibbs measure on infinite trees obtained as a weak limit of the finite volume measures. It is shown that in the infinite volume limit there arises exactly one vertex of infinite degree and the rest of the tree is distributed like a subcritical Galton-Watson tree with mean offspring probability $m<1$. We calculate the rate of divergence of the degree of the highest order vertex of finite trees in the thermodynamic limit and show it goes like $(1-m)N$ where $N$ is the size of the tree. These trees have infinite spectral dimension with probability one but the spectral dimension calculated from the ensemble average of the generating function for return probabilities is given by $2\beta -2$ if the weight $w_n$ of a vertex of degree $n$ is asymptotic to $n^{-\beta}$.Comment: 57 pages, 14 figures. Minor change