Heavy Rainfall Warning Assessment Tool User Guide. Version 1.2

This report is a User Guide to a PC tool for assessing Heavy Rainfall Warnings. Development of the PC tool formed an important operational output of the Environment Agency and Met Office funded project: "Development of Rainfall Forecast Performance Monitoring Criteria. Phase 1: Development of Methodology and Algorithms" (Jones et al., 2003). The Heavy Rainfall Warning (HRW) Assessment Tool is a toolkit for Microsoft Excel. The tool allows the user to configure an assessment framework for a particular format of Heavy Rainfall Warning, enter and save data for forecasts and ground-truths, and generate a range of performance measures and other statistics for new and previously saved data. Summary tables are presented using Excel's PivotTable feature, from which charts can also be generated. Performance measures are provided to assess forecasts of heavy rainfall in continuous variable, categorical and probability form: these include bias, rmse, R-squared Efficiency, skill scores and the Continuous Brier Score

Researching Across Two Cultures: Shifting Positionality

Embodied and creative research methods provoke honesty, emotion, and vulnerability in participants, which add to the richness of the stories they tell and are willing to share. The positionality of the researcher is less of “interviewer” and more “co-producer” or participant in a dialogue. Visual and creative approaches invite participants to share in ways in which they are not able or willing through words alone. The data and outputs they produce, with film, art, or objects, can in turn affect those who see it more than written text and need to be analysed and disseminated along with more traditional transcripts, articles, and presentations. In the context of investigating sensitive issues such as those around embodied identity, these methods, which use embodied methods to explore embodied research questions, may feel the most appropriate. These approaches lie along the boundary of therapy and research, asking much of researchers who are unlikely to have received therapeutic training or ongoing support. Due to this deficit, the researched may find that their experience is not held or contained in a way that the content would demand. Similarly, the data themselves lie on the boundary of art and research, in that they can be seen as more than a tool to facilitate reflection, but as artifacts in their own right. What are the implications in this scenario? Where should we position ourselves and our work along these boundaries? Who holds the space for the researcher and the researched if both are made vulnerable

A Symmetric Free Energy Based Multi-Component Lattice Boltzmann Method

We present a lattice Boltzmann algorithm based on an underlying free energy that allows the simulation of the dynamics of a multicomponent system with an arbitrary number of components. The thermodynamic properties, such as the chemical potential of each component and the pressure of the overall system, are incorporated in the model. We derived a symmetrical convection diffusion equation for each component as well as the Navier Stokes equation and continuity equation for the overall system. The algorithm was verified through simulations of binary and ternary systems. The equilibrium concentrations of components of binary and ternary systems simulated with our algorithm agree well with theoretical expectations.Comment: 7 pager, 4 figure

Laser velocimeter applications to high-lift research

The application of the Lockheed-Georgia 2-D laser velocimeter (LV) burst-counter system to the flow field around a 2- and 3-element high-lift airfoil is discussed. The characteristic behavior of the confluent boundary layer (that is, the boundary layer existing downstream of a slot as it approaches and undergoes separation is evaluated. In this application, the LV represents all ideal instruments for nonintrusively probing into the narrow slots and cove areas characterizing mechanical high-lift systems. The work is being performed in the Lockheed-Georgia 10 x 30-inch low-speed test facility using a 9-inch (basic) chord section of the general aviation GAW-1 airfoil. The LV system employs a 4-W argon laser and operates in an off-axis, backscatter mode with a focus length of about 30 inches. Smoke is used as the seeding medium and is injected downstream of the model such that particle uniformity and size are constant upon completion of the tunnel circuit into the test area. The LV system is fully automated by utilizing a MAC-16 minicomputer for positioning, data acquisition, and preliminary data reduction

Emulation of multivariate simulators using thin-plate splines with application to atmospheric dispersion

It is often desirable to build a statistical emulator of a complex computer simulator in order to perform analysis which would otherwise be computationally infeasible. We propose methodology to model multivariate output from a computer simulator taking into account output structure in the responses. The utility of this approach is demonstrated by applying it to a chemical and biological hazard prediction model. Predicting the hazard area which results from an accidental or deliberate chemical or biological release is imperative in civil and military planning and also in emergency response. The hazard area resulting from such a release is highly structured in space and we therefore propose the use of a thin-plate spline to capture the spatial structure and fit a Gaussian process emulator to the coefficients of the resultant basis functions. We compare and contrast four different techniques for emulating multivariate output: dimension-reduction using (i) a fully Bayesian approach with a principal component basis, (ii) a fully Bayesian approach with a thin-plate spline basis, assuming that the basis coefficients are independent, and (iii) a “plug-in” Bayesian approach with a thin-plate spline basis and a separable covariance structure; and (iv) a functional data modeling approach using a tensor-product (separable) Gaussian process. We develop methodology for the two thin-plate spline emulators and demonstrate that these emulators significantly outperform the principal component emulator. Further, the separable thin-plate spline emulator, which accounts for the dependence between basis coefficients, provides substantially more realistic quantification of uncertainty, and is also computationally more tractable, allowing fast emulation. For high resolution output data, it also offers substantial predictive and computational ad- vantages over the tensor-product Gaussian process emulator

Apparatus for determining thermophysical properties of test specimens

Apparatus is described for directly measuring the quantity square root of pck of a test specimen such as a wind tunnel model where p is density, c is the specific heat and k is the thermal conductivity of the specimen. The test specimen and a reference specimen are simultaneously subjected to the heat from a heat source. A thermocouple is attached to the reference specimen for producing a first electrical analog signal proportional to the heat rate Q that the test specimen is subjected to and an infrared radiometer that is aimed at the test specimen produces a second electrical analog signal proportional to the surface temperature T of the test specimen. An analog-to-digital converter converts the first and second electrical analog signals to digital signals. These digital signals are applied to a computer for determining the quantity

Automated electronic system for measuring thermophysical properties

Phase-charge coatings are used to measure surface temperature accurately under transient heating conditions. Coating melts when surface reaches calibrated phase-charge temperature. Temperature is monitored by infrared thermometer, and corresponding elapsed time is recorded by electronic data-handling system

Polyimide polymers provide improved ablative materials

Principle heat absorption of silica-reinforced plastic ablative materials occurs from the in-depth reaction of silica with carbon to form silicon monoxide and carbon monoxide. The higher the degree of completion of this reaction, the higher the capacity of the ablative material to absorb heat