Stepping stones for biological invasion: A bioeconomic model of transferable risk

Herein we model the widespread dispersal and management of an invasive species as a weak-link public good. The risk of introduction is driven in part by economic activity, is influenced by policies directed at the risk, and economic activity responds/adapts to the risk. Framed around recent introductions and rapid spread of dreissenid mussels in the Western United States, we find three key results. First, partial equilibrium estimates of welfare loss are significantly overestimated relative to general equilibrium estimates. If ecosystem services and market goods are substitutes the partial equilibrium bias is greater than if they are compliments. Second, well-intended policies do not necessarily reduce overall risk; risk reduction actions can transfer risk to another time or location, or both, which may increase total risk. Third, policies of quotas and inspections have to be extreme to improve welfare, with inspections having advantages over quotas.bioeconomic, invasive species, risk, weak-link, welfare, Environmental Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, Q2, Q26, Q57,

Exports and Externalities: the other side of trade and ecological risk and Technology Diffusion in a Competitive World

This paper develops a general equilibrium model to measure welfare effects of taxes for correcting environmental externalities caused by domestic trade, focusing on exter- nalities that arise through exports. Externalities from exports come from a number of sources. Domestically owned ships, planes, and automobiles can become contaminated while visiting other regions and bring unwanted pests home, and species can be in- troduced by contaminated visitors that enter a region to consume goods and services. The paper combines insights from the public finance literature on corrective environ- mental taxes and trade literature on domestically provided services. We find that past methods for measuring welfare effects are inadequate for a wide range of externalities and show the most widely used corrective mechanism, taxes on the sector imposing the environmental externality, may often do more harm than good. The motivation for this paper is the expansion of invasive species' ranges within the United States. We apply our analytical model to the specifc example of quagga and zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissena rostiformis bugenis) invasion into the U.S Pacific Northwest.environmental regulation, tax interactions, invasive species, environment and trade

Modeling Habitat of Freshwater Mussels (Bivalvia:Unionidae) in the Lower Great Lakes 25 Years after the Dreissena Invasion

Finding remnant populations of species that are of conservation concern can be difficult, particularly in aquatic habitats. Models of ecological niches can aid in the discovery of refuges. Remnant populations of native freshwater mussels (unionids) have been found in Lakes Erie and St Clair. Our goals were to predict undiscovered refuges in Lake Ontario based on habitat analysis from Lake Erie and to conduct surveys to test those predictions. We built a presence-only model on environmental data including attributes of the benthic zone and shoreline where mussels occurred in Lake Erie. We found a link between small- and large-scale variables related to unionid persistence. Bathymetry, fetch, and shoreline geomorphology contributed most to the model. These variables correspond to local-scale environmental factors important for unionid survival, including presence of vegetation and substrate composition, which explained ∼22% of the variance in presence, abundance, and richness. The model predicted that 0.8% of the near-shore area of Lake Ontario should be habitat for unionids. In surveys at 34 locations on the USA shore of Lake Ontario, we found 1800 unionids of 11 species and showed that areasOntario, a result signifying generality of our model for conservation approaches to freshwater mussels

Forecasting spread and impact to inform pre-import decisions.

In a bioeconomic framework of addressing the threat of invasive species, one of the objectives my research program is to provide estimates of the regional economic and ecological impact an invasive species will potentially inflict upon a region. Achieving this objective requires addressing four steps: 1) estimate the potential habitat, 2) predict the spread, 3) estimate economi

Anglers' willingness to pay data for certified virus-free bait in Michigan

These data were created to study the willingness to pay (WTP) for bait certified to not have viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHS) in Michigan. The survey utilized the double-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation method for the WTP estimates. Also included are responses to anglers perceived and actual knowledge of VHS and Michigan VHS regulations along with several demographics

A Spatial Modeling Approach to Predicting the Secondary Spread of Invasive Species Due to Ballast Water Discharge

<div><p>Ballast water in ships is an important contributor to the secondary spread of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Here, we use a model previously created to determine the role ballast water management has played in the secondary spread of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) to identify the future spread of one current and two potential invasive species in the Great Lakes, the Eurasian Ruffe (<i>Gymnocephalus cernuus</i>), killer shrimp (<i>Dikerogammarus villosus</i>), and golden mussel (<i>Limnoperna fortunei</i>), respectively. Model predictions for Eurasian Ruffe have been used to direct surveillance efforts within the Great Lakes and DNA evidence of ruffe presence was recently reported from one of three high risk port localities identified by our model. Predictions made for killer shrimp and golden mussel suggest that these two species have the potential to become rapidly widespread if introduced to the Great Lakes, reinforcing the need for proactive ballast water management. The model used here is flexible enough to be applied to any species capable of being spread by ballast water in marine or freshwater ecosystems.</p></div

Anglers' responses to bait certification regulations: the case of virus-free bait demand

<div><p>The threat of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) to the sport fish of the Great Lakes region has caused the state of Michigan to regulate some types of fishing bait that could spread the disease. Given large-scale fish kills from VHS are uncertain and regulation costly, it is important to consider the knowledge level of anglers and their estimated benefits from these regulations. About 75% of anglers self-reported being at least somewhat familiar with VHS and VHS regulations, and agreeing that VHS is a serious threat to the health of Great Lakes’ fish populations. Demand for a popular baitfish susceptible to VHS, emerald shiners, was estimated using a contingent valuation method survey. The results suggest increased likelihood of purchase and mean willingness to pay point estimate premiums between 15% and 29% for certified bait. The inclusion of an educational piece on VHS and regulations in our survey did not lead to significant demand differences from those who did not receive the extra information. These results may help regulators efficiently allocate funding for the prevention of spreading VHS and allow bait shops to understand better the value of certified bait.</p></div

Stepping stones for biological invasion: A bioeconomic model of transferable risk

Herein we model the widespread dispersal and management of an invasive species as a weak-link public good. The risk of introduction is driven in part by economic activity, is influenced by policies directed at the risk, and economic activity responds/adapts to the risk. Framed around recent introductions and rapid spread of dreissenid mussels in the Western United States, we find three key results. First, partial equilibrium estimates of welfare loss are significantly overestimated relative to general equilibrium estimates. If ecosystem services and market goods are substitutes the partial equilibrium bias is greater than if they are compliments. Second, well-intended policies do not necessarily reduce overall risk; risk reduction actions can transfer risk to another time or location, or both, which may increase total risk. Third, policies of quotas and inspections have to be extreme to improve welfare, with inspections having advantages over quotas

Killer shrimp prediction results.

<p>The maps illustrate the results of the killer shrimp prediction models with probability of infestation  = 0.50 and no dispersal distance. Invasions were started from Figure 6A Duluth, Minnesota, USA and Figure 6B Toledo, Ohio, USA. The maps depict the next likely invaded locations from current observed presences.</p