Integrating occupancy models and structural equation models to understand species occurrence

Understanding the drivers of species occurrence is a fundamental goal in basic and applied ecology. Occupancy models have emerged as a popular approach for inferring species occurrence because they account for problems associated with imperfect detection in field surveys. Current models, however, are limited because they assume covariates are independent (i.e., indirect effects do not occur). Here, we combined structural equation and occupancy models to investigate complex influences on species occurrence while accounting for imperfect detection. These two methods are inherently compatible because they both provide means to make inference on latent or unobserved quantities based on observed data. Our models evaluated the direct and indirect roles of cattle grazing, water chemistry, vegetation, nonnative fishes, and pond permanence on the occurrence of six pond-breeding amphibians, two of which are threatened: the California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense) and the California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii). While cattle had strong effects on pond vegetation and water chemistry, their overall effects on amphibian occurrence were small compared to the consistently negative effects of nonnative fish. Fish strongly reduced occurrence probabilities for four of five native amphibians, including both species of conservation concern. These results could help to identify drivers of amphibian declines and to prioritize strategies for amphibian conservation. More generally, this approach facilitates a more mechanistic representation of ideas about the causes of species distributions in space and time. As shown here, occupancy modeling and structural equation modeling are readily combined, and bring rich sets of techniques that may provide unique theoretical and applied insights into basic ecological questions.KEYWORDS: cattle grazing, indirect effects, structural equation model, latent variable, imperfect detection, occupancy modelThis is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the Ecological Society of America and published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. It can be found at: http://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%291939-9170/This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the Ecological Society of America and published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. It can be found at: http://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%291939-9170

The fundamental pro-groupoid of an affine 2-scheme

A natural question in the theory of Tannakian categories is: What if you don't remember \Forget? Working over an arbitrary commutative ring $R$, we prove that an answer to this question is given by the functor represented by the \'etale fundamental groupoid \pi_1(\spec(R)), i.e.\ the separable absolute Galois group of $R$ when it is a field. This gives a new definition for \'etale \pi_1(\spec(R)) in terms of the category of $R$-modules rather than the category of \'etale covers. More generally, we introduce a new notion of "commutative 2-ring" that includes both Grothendieck topoi and symmetric monoidal categories of modules, and define a notion of $\pi_1$ for the corresponding "affine 2-schemes." These results help to simplify and clarify some of the peculiarities of the \'etale fundamental group. For example, \'etale fundamental groups are not "true" groups but only profinite groups, and one cannot hope to recover more: the "Tannakian" functor represented by the \'etale fundamental group of a scheme preserves finite products but not all products.Comment: 46 pages + bibliography. Diagrams drawn in Tik

New ophthalmosaurid ichthyosaurs from the European lower cretaceous demonstrate extensive ichthyosaur survival across the Jurassic–Cretaceous boundary

Background Ichthyosauria is a diverse clade of marine amniotes that spanned most of the Mesozoic. Until recently, most authors interpreted the fossil record as showing that three major extinction events affected this group during its history: one during the latest Triassic, one at the Jurassic–Cretaceous boundary (JCB), and one (resulting in total extinction) at the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary. The JCB was believed to eradicate most of the peculiar morphotypes found in the Late Jurassic, in favor of apparently less specialized forms in the Cretaceous. However, the record of ichthyosaurs from the Berriasian–Barremian interval is extremely limited, and the effects of the end-Jurassic extinction event on ichthyosaurs remains poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on new material from the Hauterivian of England and Germany and on abundant material from the Cambridge Greensand Formation, we name a new ophthalmosaurid, Acamptonectes densus gen. et sp. nov. This taxon shares numerous features with Ophthalmosaurus, a genus now restricted to the Callovian–Berriasian interval. Our phylogenetic analysis indicates that Ophthalmosauridae diverged early in its history into two markedly distinct clades, Ophthalmosaurinae and Platypterygiinae, both of which cross the JCB and persist to the late Albian at least. To evaluate the effect of the JCB extinction event on ichthyosaurs, we calculated cladogenesis, extinction, and survival rates for each stage of the Oxfordian–Barremian interval, under different scenarios. The extinction rate during the JCB never surpasses the background extinction rate for the Oxfordian–Barremian interval and the JCB records one of the highest survival rates of the interval. Conclusions/Significance There is currently no evidence that ichthyosaurs were affected by the JCB extinction event, in contrast to many other marine groups. Ophthalmosaurid ichthyosaurs remained diverse from their rapid radiation in the Middle Jurassic to their total extinction at the beginning of the Late Cretaceous

The OLI Radiometric Scale Realization Round Robin Measurement Campaign

A round robin radiometric scale realization was performed at the Ball Aerospace Radiometric Calibration Laboratory in January/February 2011 in support of the Operational Land Imager (OLI) Program. Participants included Ball Aerospace, NIST, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and the University of Arizona. The eight day campaign included multiple observations of three integrating sphere sources by nine radiometers. The objective of the campaign was to validate the radiance calibration uncertainty ascribed to the integrating sphere used to calibrate the OLI instrument. The instrument level calibration source uncertainty was validated by quatnifying: (1) the long term stability of the NIST calibrated radiance artifact, (2) the responsivity scale of the Ball Aerospace transfer radiometer and (3) the operational characteristics of the large integrating sphere

Harnessing the NEON data revolution to advance open environmental science with a diverse and data-capable community

It is a critical time to reflect on the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) science to date as well as envision what research can be done right now with NEON (and other) data and what training is needed to enable a diverse user community. NEON became fully operational in May 2019 and has pivoted from planning and construction to operation and maintenance. In this overview, the history of and foundational thinking around NEON are discussed. A framework of open science is described with a discussion of how NEON can be situated as part of a larger data constellation—across existing networks and different suites of ecological measurements and sensors. Next, a synthesis of early NEON science, based on \u3e100 existing publications, funded proposal efforts, and emergent science at the very first NEON Science Summit (hosted by Earth Lab at the University of Colorado Boulder in October 2019) is provided. Key questions that the ecology community will address with NEON data in the next 10 yr are outlined, from understanding drivers of biodiversity across spatial and temporal scales to defining complex feedback mechanisms in human–environmental systems. Last, the essential elements needed to engage and support a diverse and inclusive NEON user community are highlighted: training resources and tools that are openly available, funding for broad community engagement initiatives, and a mechanism to share and advertise those opportunities. NEON users require both the skills to work with NEON data and the ecological or environmental science domain knowledge to understand and interpret them. This paper synthesizes early directions in the community’s use of NEON data, and opportunities for the next 10 yr of NEON operations in emergent science themes, open science best practices, education and training, and community building

Plasmonically Enhanced Reflectance of Heat Radiation from Low-Bandgap Semiconductor Microinclusions

Increased reflectance from the inclusion of highly scattering particles at low volume fractions in an insulating dielectric offers a promising way to reduce radiative thermal losses at high temperatures. Here, we investigate plasmonic resonance driven enhanced scattering from microinclusions of low-bandgap semiconductors (InP, Si, Ge, PbS, InAs and Te) in an insulating composite to tailor its infrared reflectance for minimizing thermal losses from radiative transfer. To this end, we compute the spectral properties of the microcomposites using Monte Carlo modeling and compare them with results from Fresnel equations. The role of particle size-dependent Mie scattering and absorption efficiencies, and, scattering anisotropy are studied to identify the optimal microinclusion size and material parameters for maximizing the reflectance of the thermal radiation. For composites with Si and Ge microinclusions we obtain reflectance efficiencies of 57 - 65% for the incident blackbody radiation from sources at temperatures in the range 400 - 1600 {\deg}C. Furthermore, we observe a broadbanding of the reflectance spectra from the plasmonic resonances due to charge carriers generated from defect states within the semiconductor bandgap. Our results thus open up the possibility of developing efficient high-temperature thermal insulators through use of the low-bandgap semiconductor microinclusions in insulating dielectrics.Comment: Main article (8 Figures and 2 Tables) + Supporting Information (8 Figures

Efficacy and toxicity of adjuvant radiotherapy in recurrent melanoma after adjuvant immunotherapy

BackgroundIn patients with stage III melanoma, despite surgical resection and adjuvant systemic therapy, locoregional recurrences still occur. The randomized, phase III Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group (TROG) 02.01 trial demonstrated that adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) after complete lymphadenectomy (CLND) halves the incidence of melanoma recurrence within local nodal basins without improving overall survival or quality of life. However, the study was conducted prior to the current era of adjuvant systemic therapies and when CLND was the standard approach for microscopic nodal disease. As such, there is currently no data on the role of adjuvant RT in patients with melanoma who recur during or after adjuvant immunotherapy, including those that may or may not have undergone prior CLND. In this study, we aimed to answer this question.MethodsPatients with resected stage III melanoma who received adjuvant anti-programmed cell death protein-1 (PD-1) (±ipilimumab) immunotherapy with a subsequent locoregional (lymph node and/or in-transit metastases) recurrence were retrospectively identified. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses were conducted. Primary outcome was rate of subsequent locoregional recurrence; secondary outcomes were locoregional recurrence-free survival (lr-RFS2) and overall RFS (RFS2) to second recurrence.ResultsIn total, 71 patients were identified: 42 (59%) men, 30 (42%) BRAF V600E mutant, 43 (61%) stage IIIC at diagnosis. Median time to first recurrence was 7 months (1–44), 24 (34%) received adjuvant RT and 47 (66%) did not. Thirty-three patients (46%) developed a second recurrence at a median of 5 months (1–22). The rate of locoregional relapse at second recurrence was lower in those who received adjuvant RT (8%, 2/24) compared with those who did not (36%, 17/47, p=0.01). Adjuvant RT at first recurrence was associated with an improved lr-RFS2 (HR 0.16, p=0.015), with a trend towards an improved RFS2 (HR 0.54, p=0.072) and no effect on risk of distant recurrence or overall survival.ConclusionThis is the first study to investigate the role of adjuvant RT in patients with melanoma with locoregional disease recurrence during or after adjuvant anti-PD-1-based immunotherapy. Adjuvant RT was associated with improved lr-RFS2, but not risk of distant recurrence, demonstrating a likely benefit in locoregional disease control in the modern era. Further prospective studies are required to validate these results

The Association between Mediated Deprivation and Ovarian Cancer Survival among African American Women

BACKGROUND: Deprivation indices are often used to adjust for socio-economic disparities in health studies. Their role has been partially evaluated for certain population-level cancer outcomes, but examination of their role in ovarian cancer is limited. In this study, we evaluated a range of well-recognized deprivation indices in relation to cancer survival in a cohort of self-identified Black women diagnosed with ovarian cancer. This study aimed to determine if clinical or diagnostic characteristics lie on a mediating pathway between socioeconomic status (SES) and deprivation and ovarian cancer survival in a minority population that experiences worse survival from ovarian cancer. METHODS: We used mediation analysis to look at the direct and indirect causal effects of deprivation indices with main mediators of the SEER stage at diagnosis and residual disease. The analysis employed Bayesian structural equation models with variable selection. We applied a joint Bayesian structural model for the mediator, including a Weibull mixed model for the vital outcome with deprivation as exposure. We selected modifiers via a Monte Carlo model selection procedure. RESULTS: The results suggest that high SES-related indices, such as Yost, Kolak urbanicity (URB), mobility (MOB) and SES dimensions, and concentrated disadvantage index (CDI), all have a significant impact on improved survival. In contrast, area deprivation index (ADI)/Singh, and area level poverty (POV) did not have a major impact. In some cases, the indirect effects have very wide credible intervals, so the total effect is not well estimated despite the estimation of the direct effect. CONCLUSIONS: First, it is clear that commonly used indices such as Yost, or CDI both significantly impact the survival experience of Black women diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer. In addition, the Kolak dimension indices (URB, MOB, mixed immigrant: MICA and SES) also demonstrate a significant association, depending on the mediator. Mediation effects differ according to the mediator chosen