Natural Resources Research Institute Technical Report

Water temperature is generally considered one of the primary physical habitat parameter determining the suitability of stream habitat for fish species, with effects on the mortality, metabolism, growth, behavior, and reproduction of individuals. In this study we assessed the potential threats of climate change on stream temperatures and flow regimes in Lake Superior tributary streams in Minnesota, USA. The study included deterministic models for stream flow and temperature of three study streams (Amity Creek, Baptism River, Knife River), and regional (empirical) models for specific flow and temperature parameters to give better spatial coverage of the region. Information on stream flow, stream temperature, and land cover was used to develop a brook trout presence/absence model to understand the current pattern of distribution of brook trout and predict future distributions under future climate. The hydrology of north shore streams is mainly driven by air temperature and precipitation. Historical air temperatures in the region have a significant upward trend, particularly since 1980. Global climate model (GCM) outputs project a continued increasing trend in air temperature, with an increase in mean annual air temperature of 2 to 3 °C by 2089. The historical precipitation data shows an increasing trend for total annual precipitation at Duluth and Two Harbors between 1900 and 2010, whereas Grand Marais and Grand Portage do not have a clear trend. Based on an analysis of daily precipitation totals, there is some indication of an increasing trend in the number of days in summer with high precipitation (10-20 cm). Both the GENMOM and the ECHAM5 GCMs project overall increases in precipitation of about 15%, but differ with respect to the seasonal distribution of the precipitation changes. A significant and relatively certain impact of climate change is a projected shift in precipitation from snowfall to rainfall. While an increasing trend in precipitation leads to increasing streamflow, the increasing trend in spring and summer air temperature tends to reduce streamflow (by increasing evapotranspiration). Available streamflow records for north shore streams suggest there may be a decreasing trend in mean annual flow and summer low flow, but the trends are not statistically significant. Future projections of streamflow based on the GCM output were mixed, with the deterministic models projecting moderate increases in average stream flow and summer low flow, while the regression models for project a moderate decrease in low flow. Stream temperature analyses for the three study streams based on GCM climate output give the result of fairly uniform seasonal increases in stream temperature to 2089 ranging from 1.3 to 1.9 °C for the GENMOM model to 2.2 to 3.5°C for the ECHAM5 model. Application of the GENMOM climate data to the deterministic stream temperature models produced fairly similar stream temperature changes for the three study sites. The empirical stream temperature study found stream temperature in the north shore region to be influenced by air temperature, catchment size, percentage of woody wetlands, latitude, and soil permeability rate. In response to climate change projected by the GENMOM GCM, the regional stream temperature model projects July mean water temperature to rapidly increase by approximately 1.2oC from 1990s to 2060s, followed by a slight decrease to 2089. The temperature increase was predicted to be the largest in the coastal area of middle north shore region. The brook trout presence/absence model found water temperature to have the strongest influence on trout presence. Brook trout were predicted to be at risk for water temperatures above 18.7oC and be extirpated from streams for temperatures over 20oC. Stream flow was shown to have a negative effect on trout presence, though not as strong as water temperature. Overall, these data predict that brook trout may be extirpated from lower shore area, be exposed to increasing risk in middle shore region, and remain present in upper shore streams from the present to 2089. This work would benefit greatly from a number of modifications to the GCM’s, the spatial data used in the development of both the deterministic and empirical models, and implementation of a more detailed, spatially explicit, hydrologic model. Finally, additional fish data, including cool and warm water assemblage data, along with descriptors of landscape structure (i.e., connectivity) would allow us to assess the areas where cold water species may be threatened by the presence or potential presence of coolwater competitors

The Parallel Worm Tracker: A Platform for Measuring Average Speed and Drug-Induced Paralysis in Nematodes

Background Caenorhabditis elegans locomotion is a simple behavior that has been widely used to dissect genetic components of behavior, synaptic transmission, and muscle function. Many of the paradigms that have been created to study C. elegans locomotion rely on qualitative experimenter observation. Here we report the implementation of an automated tracking system developed to quantify the locomotion of multiple individual worms in parallel. Methodology/Principal Findings Our tracking system generates a consistent measurement of locomotion that allows direct comparison of results across experiments and experimenters and provides a standard method to share data between laboratories. The tracker utilizes a video camera attached to a zoom lens and a software package implemented in MATLAB®. We demonstrate several proof-of-principle applications for the tracker including measuring speed in the absence and presence of food and in the presence of serotonin. We further use the tracker to automatically quantify the time course of paralysis of worms exposed to aldicarb and levamisole and show that tracker performance compares favorably to data generated using a hand-scored metric. Conclusions/Signficance Although this is not the first automated tracking system developed to measure C. elegans locomotion, our tracking software package is freely available and provides a simple interface that includes tools for rapid data collection and analysis. By contrast with other tools, it is not dependent on a specific set of hardware. We propose that the tracker may be used for a broad range of additional worm locomotion applications including genetic and chemical screening

Functional Changes in Littoral Macroinvertebrate Communities in Response to Watershed-Level Anthropogenic Stress

Watershed-scale anthropogenic stressors have profound effects on aquatic communities. Although several functional traits of stream macroinvertebrates change predictably in response to land development and urbanization, little is known about macroinvertebrate functional responses in lakes. We assessed functional community structure, functional diversity (Rao’s quadratic entropy) and voltinism in macroinvertebrate communities sampled across the full gradient of anthropogenic stress in Laurentian Great Lakes coastal wetlands. Functional diversity and voltinism significantly decreased with increasing development, whereas agriculture had smaller or non-significant effects. Functional community structure was affected by watershed-scale development, as demonstrated by an ordination analysis followed by regression. Because functional community structure affects energy flow and ecosystem function, and functional diversity is known to have important implications for ecosystem resilience to further environmental change, these results highlight the necessity of finding ways to remediate or at least ameliorate these effects

Duluth Residential Stormwater Reduction Demonstration Project for Lake Superior Tributaries

Minnesota Pollution Control Agency Contract Number: B10575This item is a duplicate of another record with the same title (http://hdl.handle.net/11299/187317).We used paired 2‐block street sections in the Amity Creek watershed (Duluth, MN) to demonstrate the effectiveness of homeowner BMPs to reduce residential stormwater flow to storm sewers in an older neighborhood in a cold climate on clay and bedrock geology. Runoff from each street was measured before and after installation of stormwater BMPs. In addition, the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of residents were measured before and after BMP installation. BMPs were installed on properties of willing residents of one street (“treatment”). Most residents (22 of 25 properties) willingly participated. 250 trees and shrubs were planted; 22 rain barrels were installed; 5 rain gardens, 12 rock‐sump storage basins, and 2 swales were constructed; and a stormwater ditch was re‐dug and had 5 ditch checks installed in it. The post‐project survey indicated an increase in understanding by treatment‐street residents of where stormwater flowed to and what it affected, and an increase in willingness to accept at least some responsibility for stormwater runoff. Residents who received BMPs were generally satisfied with them and would recommend them to others. Runoff reduction proved more difficult to quantify due to high and inconsistent runoff variability between the paired streets, very few pre‐BMP installation rain events, and loss of one control street due to re‐paving mid‐project. Capacity of installed BMPs is approximately 2.5% of the measured stormwater runoff. There is about a 20% greater reduction in runoff for the treatment street after BMPs were installed than for the control street for small to moderate storm events; while we would like to attribute this completely to our BMPs, we cannot prove that other factors weren’t also at work. Peak flows also appear to have been reduced for 1 inch and smaller rainstorms, but we were unable to accurately measure this reduction. The results are available on an existing stream education website and are used to educate neighborhood, city of Duluth, and regional residents on stormwater issues, individual responsibility, and BMP options

Joint analysis of stressors and ecosystem services to enhance restoration effectiveness

With increasing pressure placed on natural systems by growing human populations, both scientists and resource managers need a better understanding of the relationships between cumulative stress from human activities and valued ecosystem services. Societies often seek to mitigate threats to these services through large-scale, costly restoration projects, such as the over one billion dollar Great Lakes Restoration Initiative currently underway. To help inform these efforts, we merged high-resolution spatial analyses of environmental stressors with mapping of ecosystem services for all five Great Lakes. Cumulative ecosystem stress is highest in near-shore habitats, but also extends offshore in Lakes Erie, Ontario, and Michigan. Variation in cumulative stress is driven largely by spatial concordance among multiple stressors, indicating the importance of considering all stressors when planning restoration activities. In addition, highly stressed areas reflect numerous different combinations of stressors rather than a single suite of problems, suggesting that a detailed understanding of the stressors needing alleviation could improve restoration planning. We also find that many important areas for fisheries and recreation are subject to high stress, indicating that ecosystem degradation could be threatening key services. Current restoration efforts have targeted high-stress sites almost exclusively, but generally without knowledge of the full range of stressors affecting these locations or differences among sites in service provisioning. Our results demonstrate that joint spatial analysis of stressors and ecosystem services can provide a critical foundation for maximizing social and ecological benefits from restoration investments. www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1213841110/-/DCSupplementa

Environmental Indicators for the Coastal Region of the U.S. Great Lakes

The goal of this research collaboration was to develop indicators that both estimate environmental condition and suggest plausible causes of ecosystem degradation in the coastal region of the U.S. Great Lakes. The collaboration consisted of 8 broad components, each of which generated different types of environmental responses and characteristics of the coastal region. These indicators included biotic communities of amphibians, birds, diatoms, fish, macroinvertebrates, and wetland plants as well as indicators of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) photo-induced toxicity and landscape characterization. These components are summarized below and discussed in more detailed in 5 separate reports (Section II). Stress gradients within the U.S. Great Lakes coastal region were defined from 207 variables (e.g., agriculture, atmospheric deposition, land use/land cover, human populations, point source pollution, and shoreline modification) from 19 different data sources that were publicly available for the coastal region. Biotic communities along these gradients were sampled with a stratified, random design among representative ecosystems within the coastal zone. To achieve the sampling across this massive area, the coastal region was subdivided into 2 major ecological provinces and further subdivided into 762 segment sheds. Stress gradients were defined for the major categories of human-induced disturbance in the coastal region and an overall stress index was calculated which represented a combination of all the stress gradients. Investigators of this collaboration have had extensive interactions with the Great Lakes community. For instance, the Lake Erie Lakewide Area Management Plan (LAMP) has adopted many of the stressor measures as integral indicators of the condition of watersheds tributary to Lake Erie. Furthermore, the conceptual approach and applications for development of a generalized stressor gradient have been incorporated into a document defining the tiered aquatic life criteria for defining biological integrity of the nation’s waters. A total of 14 indicators of the U.S. Great Lakes coastal region are presented for potential application. Each indicator is summarized with respect to its use, methodology, spatial context, and diagnosis capability. In general, the results indicate that stress related to agricultural activity and human population density/development had the largest impacts on the biotic community indicators. In contrast, the photoinduced PAH indicator was primarily related to industrial activity in the U.S. Great Lakes, and over half of the sites sampled were potentially at risk of PAH toxicity to larval fish. One of the indicators developed for land use/land change was developed from Landsat imagery for the entire U.S. Great Lakes basin and for the period from 1992 to 2001. This indicator quantified the extensive conversions of both agricultural and forest land to residential area that has occurred during a short 9 year period. Considerable variation in the responses were manifest at different spatial scales and many at surprisingly large scales. Significant advances were made with respect to development of methods for identifying and testing environmental indicators. In addition, many indicators and concepts developed from this project are being incorporated into management plans and U.S. 8 EPA methods documents. Further details, downloadable documents, and updates on these indicators can be found at the GLEI website - http://glei.nrri.umn.edu

Rating impacts in a multi‐stressor world: a quantitative assessment of 50 stressors affecting the Great Lakes

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/116318/1/eap2015253717.pd