Empirical Analyses of Forestry Interactions with Climate Uncertainty and Threatened Species

Forests are highly valuable resources providing both timber as well as many non-use values like habitat for various endangered and threatened species, carbon sequestration, and recreation, to name a few. Given that there are 765 million acres of forestland in the United States, almost 60% of which are privately owned, private forest management decisions may have a profound impact on our forest resources, the forest landscape, and the level of non-timber benefits they provide. Because many non-timber forest benefits, particularly habitat for threatened and endangered species, do not have market values and are external to private landowners’ management decisions, they tend to be underprovided, highlighting a significant market failure. Conservation policies are one tool to correct this market failure, but the design and implementation of effective policies can be challenging, oftentimes due to the lack of data on their economic costs and benefits. Climate change presents additional challenges as it not only interacts directly with forest ecosystems, but also presents new incentives for landowners to adapt through their management decisions. Understanding how forest owners adapt to climate change and how climate uncertainty affects the timing of adaptation decisions is essential information for effective policy design. This dissertation consists of two analyses that explore the relationship between climate uncertainty, forest management, and the economic benefits of endangered species conservation. The first analysis presents an empirical study of climate change adaptation in forestry in the Eastern United states where landowners have incentives to adapt by planting southern pine species in favor of hardwood forests. It uses theoretical insights from option value theory to evaluate how future climate uncertainty affects the timing of adaptive planting decisions. The results show that climate uncertainty can significantly slow the rate of adaptation and that adaptation paths are highly sensitive to the level of uncertainty. Since natural hardwood forests are more biodiverse than pine plantations, results suggest that an important source of future conservation uncertainty arises from the economic response of private forest landowners to climate uncertainty. The second analysis develops an empirical framework for estimating the economic benefits of a conservation policy that changes private landowner behavior and directly affects the abundance of a threatened species, with an application to riparian forest buffers and Coho salmon in the state of Oregon. Results suggest that the current size of the no-cut riparian buffer on private forestland is inefficiently small, and that the optimal size exists somewhere between 60 and 120 ft. To my knowledge, these results present the first empirical economic estimation of the optimal size of riparian buffers for the recovery of a threatened species

Probing Star Formation at Low Metallicity: The Radio Emission of Super Star Clusters in SBS0335-052

We present high-resolution radio continuum observations of the nascent starburst in the metal-poor galaxy SBS 0335-052. These radio data were taken with the Very Large Array and include observations at 0.7cm, 1.3cm, 2cm, 3.6cm, and 6cm. These observations enable us to probe the thermal radio nebulae associated with the extremely young star-forming regions in this galaxy. Two discrete and luminous star-forming regions are detected in the south of the galaxy that appear to be associated with massive star clusters previously identified at optical wavelengths. However, the remaining optically-identified massive star clusters are not clearly associated with radio emission (either thermal or non-thermal) down to the sensitivity limits of these radio data. The spectral energy distributions of the two radio-detected clusters are consistent with being purely thermal, and the entire region has an inferred ionizing flux of ~1.2 x 10^ 53 s^-1, which is equivalent to ~12,000 "typical" O-type stars (type O7.5 V). The observations presented here have resolved out a significant contribution from diffuse non-thermal emission detected previously, implying a previous episode of significant star formation. The current star formation rate (SFR) for this southern region alone is ~1.3 M_sun yr^-1, or ~ 23M_sun yr^-1 kpc^-2. This SFR derived from thermal radio emission also suggests that previous optical recombination line studies are not detecting a significant fraction of the current star formation in SBS 0335-052. From model fits to the radio spectral energy distribution, we infer a global mean density in the two youngest clusters of n_e > 10^3-10^4 cm^-3. In addition, a comparison between the compact and diffuse radio emission indicates that up to ~50% of the ionizing flux could be leaking out of the compact HII regions.Comment: accepted AJ, 14 pages, 5 figure

The Infrared Properties of Hickson Compact Groups

Compact groups of galaxies provide a unique environment to study the mechanisms by which star formation occurs amid continuous gravitational encounters. We present 2MASS (JHK), Spitzer IRAC (3.5-8 micron) and MIPS (24 micron) observations of a sample of twelve Hickson Compact Groups (HCGs 2, 7, 16, 19, 22, 31, 42, 48, 59, 61, 62, and 90) that includes a total of 45 galaxies. The near-infrared colors of the sample galaxies are largely consistent with being dominated by slightly reddened normal stellar populations. Galaxies that have the most significant PAH and/or hot dust emission (as inferred from excess 8 micron flux) also tend to have larger amounts of extinction and/or K-band excess and stronger 24 micron emission, all of which suggest ongoing star formation activity. We separate the twelve HCGs in our sample into three types based on the ratio of the group HI mass to dynamical mass. We find evidence that galaxies in the most gas-rich groups tend to be the most actively star forming. Galaxies in the most gas-poor groups tend to be tightly clustered around a narrow range in colors consistent with the integrated light from a normal stellar population. We interpret these trends as indicating that galaxies in gas-rich groups experience star formation and/or nuclear actively until their neutral gas consumed, stripped, or ionized. The galaxies in this sample exhibit a ``gap'' between gas-rich and gas-poor groups in infrared color space that is sparsely populated and not seen in the Spitzer First Look Survey sample. This gap may suggest a rapid evolution of galaxy properties in response to dynamical effects. These results suggest that the global properties of the groups and the local properties of the galaxies are connected.Comment: 34 pages, 26 figures, accepted for publication in AJ, higher quality images available in publicatio

Clusters of Extragalactic Ultra Compact HII Regions

We report on the detection of optically thick free-free radio sources in the galaxies M33, NGC 253, and NGC 6946 using data in the literature. We interpret these sources as being young, embedded star birth regions, which are likely to be clusters of ultracompact HII regions. All 35 of the sources presented in this article have positive radio spectral indices alpha>0 suggesting an optically thick thermal bremsstrahlung emission arising in the HII region surrounding hot stars. Energy requirements indicate a range of a several to >500 O7V star equivalents powering each HII region. Assuming a Salpeter IMF, this corresponds to integrated stellar masses of 0.1--60,000 Msun. For roughly half of the sources in our sample, there is no obvious optical counterpart, giving further support for their deeply embedded nature. Their luminosities and radio spectral energy distributions are consistent with HII regions having electron densities from 1500 cm^-3 to 15000 cm^-3 and radii of 1 - 7 pc. We suggest that the less luminous of these sources are extragalactic ultracompact HII region complexes, those of intermediate luminosity are similar to W49 in the Galaxy, while the brightest will be counterparts to 30 Doradus. These objects constitute the lower mass range of extragalactic ``ultradense HII regions'' which we argue are the youngest stages of massive star cluster formation yet observed. This sample is beginning to fill in the continuum of objects between small associations of ultracompact HII regions and the massive extragalactic clusters that may evolve into globular clusters.Comment: 37 pages, uses AASTeX; scheduled to appear in ApJ v. 559 October 2001. Full postscript version available from http://www.astro.wisc.edu/~chip/Papers/Johnson_Kobulnicky_etal_ApJ559.ps.g

Dense Molecular Gas in the Nearby Low Metallicity Dwarf Starburst Galaxy IC 10

Dense molecular gas and star formation are correlated in galaxies. The effect of low metallicity on this relationship is crucial for interpreting observations of high redshift galaxies, which have lower metallicities than galaxies today. However, it remains relatively unexplored because dense molecular gas tracers like HCN and HCO+ are faint in low metallicity systems. We present Green Bank Telescope observations of HCN(1-0) and HCO+(1-0) on giant molecular cloud (34pc) scales in the nearby low metallicity ($12+\log({\rm O/H})=8.2$) starburst IC 10 and compare them to those in other galaxies. We detect HCN and HCO+ in one and three of five pointings, respectively. The $I_{\rm HCN}/I_{\rm HCO+}$ values are within the range seen in other galaxies, but are most similar to those seen in other low metallicity sources and in starbursts. The detections follow the fiducial $L_{\rm IR}$-$L_{\rm HCN}$ and $L_{\rm IR}$-$L_{\rm HCO+}$ relationships. These trends suggest that HCN and HCO+ can be used to trace dense molecular gas at metallicities of 1/4 $Z_\odot$, to first order. The dense gas fraction is similar to that in spiral galaxies, but lower than that in U/LIRGs. The dense molecular gas star formation efficiency, however, is on the upper end of those in normal galaxies and consistent with those in U/LIRGs. These results suggest that the CO and HCN/HCO+ emission occupy the same relative volumes as at higher metallicity, but that the entire emitting structure is reduced in size. Dense gas mass estimates for high redshift galaxies may need to be corrected for this effect.Comment: Accepted to Ap