Survival ensembles by the sum of pairwise differences with application to lung cancer microarray studies

Lung cancer is among the most common cancers in the United States, in terms of incidence and mortality. In 2009, it is estimated that more than 150,000 deaths will result from lung cancer alone. Genetic information is an extremely valuable data source in characterizing the personal nature of cancer. Over the past several years, investigators have conducted numerous association studies where intensive genetic data is collected on relatively few patients compared to the numbers of gene predictors, with one scientific goal being to identify genetic features associated with cancer recurrence or survival. In this note, we propose high-dimensional survival analysis through a new application of boosting, a powerful tool in machine learning. Our approach is based on an accelerated lifetime model and minimizing the sum of pairwise differences in residuals. We apply our method to a recent microarray study of lung adenocarcinoma and find that our ensemble is composed of 19 genes, while a proportional hazards (PH) ensemble is composed of nine genes, a proper subset of the 19-gene panel. In one of our simulation scenarios, we demonstrate that PH boosting in a misspecified model tends to underfit and ignore moderately-sized covariate effects, on average. Diagnostic analyses suggest that the PH assumption is not satisfied in the microarray data and may explain, in part, the discrepancy in the sets of active coefficients. Our simulation studies and comparative data analyses demonstrate how statistical learning by PH models alone is insufficient.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS426 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Risk prediction for prostate cancer recurrence through regularized estimation with simultaneous adjustment for nonlinear clinical effects

In biomedical studies it is of substantial interest to develop risk prediction scores using high-dimensional data such as gene expression data for clinical endpoints that are subject to censoring. In the presence of well-established clinical risk factors, investigators often prefer a procedure that also adjusts for these clinical variables. While accelerated failure time (AFT) models are a useful tool for the analysis of censored outcome data, it assumes that covariate effects on the logarithm of time-to-event are linear, which is often unrealistic in practice. We propose to build risk prediction scores through regularized rank estimation in partly linear AFT models, where high-dimensional data such as gene expression data are modeled linearly and important clinical variables are modeled nonlinearly using penalized regression splines. We show through simulation studies that our model has better operating characteristics compared to several existing models. In particular, we show that there is a nonnegligible effect on prediction as well as feature selection when nonlinear clinical effects are misspecified as linear. This work is motivated by a recent prostate cancer study, where investigators collected gene expression data along with established prognostic clinical variables and the primary endpoint is time to prostate cancer recurrence.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS458 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Nonparametric estimation of a covariate-adjusted counterfactual treatment regimen response curve

Flexible estimation of the mean outcome under a treatment regimen (i.e., value function) is the key step toward personalized medicine. We define our target parameter as a conditional value function given a set of baseline covariates which we refer to as a stratum based value function. We focus on semiparametric class of decision rules and propose a sieve based nonparametric covariate adjusted regimen-response curve estimator within that class. Our work contributes in several ways. First, we propose an inverse probability weighted nonparametrically efficient estimator of the smoothed regimen-response curve function. We show that asymptotic linearity is achieved when the nuisance functions are undersmoothed sufficiently. Asymptotic and finite sample criteria for undersmoothing are proposed. Second, using Gaussian process theory, we propose simultaneous confidence intervals for the smoothed regimen-response curve function. Third, we provide consistency and convergence rate for the optimizer of the regimen-response curve estimator; this enables us to estimate an optimal semiparametric rule. The latter is important as the optimizer corresponds with the optimal dynamic treatment regimen. Some finite-sample properties are explored with simulations

Acoustic Probing of the Jamming Transition in an Unconsolidated Granular Medium

Experiments with acoustic waves guided along the mechanically free surface of an unconsolidated granular packed structure provide information on the elasticity of granular media at very low pressures that are naturally controlled by the gravitational acceleration and the depth beneath the surface. Comparison of the determined dispersion relations for guided surface acoustic modes with a theoretical model reveals the dependencies of the elastic moduli of the granular medium on pressure. The experiments confirm recent theoretical predictions that relaxation of the disordered granular packing through non-affine motion leads to a peculiar scaling of shear rigidity with pressure near the jamming transition corresponding to zero pressure. Unexpectedly, and in disagreement with the most of the available theories, the bulk modulus depends on pressure in a very similar way to the shear modulus

Genitofemoral and Perineal Neuralgia After Transobturator Midurethral Sling

Midurethral slings successfully treat stress urinary incontinence through a minimally invasive vaginal approach. Postoperative pain related to sling placement can occur and poses both diagnostic and treatment dilemmas

Penalized Estimating Functions and Variable Selection in Semiparametric Regression Models

We propose a general strategy for variable selection in semiparametric regression models by penalizing appropriate estimating functions. Important applications include semiparametric linear regression with censored responses and semiparametric regression with missing predictors. Unlike the existing penalized maximum likelihood estimators, the proposed penalized estimating functions may not pertain to the derivatives of any objective functions and may be discrete in the regression coefficients. We establish a general asymptotic theory for penalized estimating functions and present suitable numerical algorithms to implement the proposed estimators. In addition, we develop a resampling technique to estimate the variances of the estimated regression coefficients when the asymptotic variances cannot be evaluated directly. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed methods perform well in variable selection and variance estimation. We illustrate our methods using data from the Paul Coverdell Stroke Registry

The Solvent–Solid Interface of Acid Catalysts Studied by High Resolution MAS NMR

High-resolution magic angle spinning (HRMAS) NMR spectroscopy was used to study the effect of mixed solvent systems on the acidity at the solid−liquid interface of solid acid catalysts. A method was developed that can exploit benefits of both solution and solid-state NMR (SSNMR) by wetting porous solids with small volumes of liquids (μL/mg) to create an interfacial liquid that exhibits unique motional dynamics intermediate to an isotropic liquid and a rigid solid. Results from these experiments provide information about the influence of the solvent mixtures on the acidic properties at a solid−liquid interface. Importantly, use of MAS led to spectra with full resolution between water in an acidic environment and that of bulk water. Using mixed solvent systems, the chemical shift of water was used to compare the relative acidity as a function of the hydration level of the DMSO-d6 solvent. Nonlinear increasing acidity was observed as the DMSO-d6 became more anhydrous. 1H HR-MAS NMR experiments on a variety of supported sulfonic acid functionalized materials, suggest that the acid strength and number of acid sites correlates to the degree of broadening of the peaks in the 1H NMR spectra. When the amount of liquid added to the solid is increased (corresponding to a thicker liquid layer), fully resolved water phases were observed. This suggests that the acidic proton was localized predominantly within a 2 nm distance from the solid. EXSY 1H−1H 2D experiments of the thin layers were used to determine the rate of proton exchange for different catalytic materials. These results demonstrated the utility of using (SSNMR) on solid−liquid mixtures to selectively probe catalyst surfaces under realistic reaction conditions for condensed phase systems

EFFECTS OF MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON GRASSLAND BIRDS: LESSER PRAIRIE-CHICKEN

Information on the habitat requirements and effects of habitat management on grassland birds were summarized from information in more than 4,000 published and unpublished papers. A range map is provided to indicate the breeding distribution of Lesser Prairie-Chicken in the United States and southern Canada. Although birds frequently are observed outside the breeding range indicated, the maps are intended to show areas where managers might concentrate their attention. It may be ineffectual to manage habitat at a site for a species that rarely occurs in an area. The species account begins with a brief capsule statement, which provides the fundamental components or keys to management for the species. A section on breeding range outlines the current breeding distribution of the species in North America. The suitable habitat section describes the breeding habitat and occasionally microhabitat characteristics of the species, especially those habitats that occur in the Great Plains. Details on habitat and microhabitat requirements often provide clues to how a species will respond to a particular management practice. A table near the end of the account complements the section on suitable habitat, and lists the specific habitat characteristics for the species by individual studies. A special section on prey habitat is included for those predatory species that have more specific prey requirements. The area requirements section provides details on territory and home range sizes, minimum area requirements, and the effects of patch size, edges, and other landscape and habitat features on abundance and productivity. It may be futile to manage a small block of suitable habitat for a species that has minimum area requirements that are larger than the area being managed. The Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) is an obligate brood parasite of many grassland birds. The section on cowbird brood parasitism summarizes rates of cowbird parasitism, host responses to parasitism, and factors that influence parasitism, such as nest concealment and host density. The impact of management depends, in part, upon a species’ nesting phenology and biology. The section on breeding-season phenology and site fidelity includes details on spring arrival and fall departure for migratory populations in the Great Plains, peak breeding periods, the tendency to renest after nest failure or success, and the propensity to return to a previous breeding site. The duration and timing of breeding varies among regions and years. Species’ response to management summarizes the current knowledge and major findings in the literature on the effects of different management practices on the species. The section on management recommendations complements the previous section and summarizes specific recommendations for habitat management provided in the literature. If management recommendations differ in different portions of the species’ breeding range, recommendations are given separately by region. The literature cited contains references to published and unpublished literature on the management effects and habitat requirements of the species. This section is not meant to be a complete bibliography; a searchable, annotated bibliography of published and unpublished papers dealing with habitat needs of grassland birds and their responses to habitat management is posted at the Web site mentioned below