Confirmation, Decision, and Evidential Probability

Henry Kyburg’s theory of Evidential Probability offers a neglected tool for approaching problems in confirmation theory and decision theory. I use Evidential Probability to examine some persistent problems within these areas of the philosophy of science. Formal tools in general and probability theory in particular have great promise for conceptual analysis in confirmation theory and decision theory, but they face many challenges. In each chapter, I apply Evidential Probability to a specific issue in confirmation theory or decision theory. In Chapter 1, I challenge the notion that Bayesian probability offers the best basis for a probabilistic theory of evidence. In Chapter 2, I criticise the conventional measures of quantities of evidence that use the degree of imprecision of imprecise probabilities. In Chapter 3, I develop an alternative to orthodox utility-maximizing decision theory using Kyburg’s system. In Chapter 4, I confront the orthodox notion that Nelson Goodman’s New Riddle of Induction makes purely formal theories of induction untenable. Finally, in Chapter 5, I defend probabilistic theories of inductive reasoning against John D. Norton’s recent collection of criticisms. My aim is the development of fresh perspectives on classic problems and contemporary debates. I both defend and exemplify a formal approach to the philosophy of science. I argue that Evidential Probability has great potential for clarifying our concepts of evidence and rationality

Social and Economic Determinants of Infant Ill Health in 159 Georgia Counties: A Comparison Study

Prematurity and low birth weight (LBW) are important causes of infant morbidity in Georgia and the United States. Georgia county-level data were used to explore the relationships between prematurity and LBW and two social and economic determinants of health: race and poverty status. Spearman rank correlations and Friedman and Wilcoxon signed rank tests were used. Prematurity and LBW were positively associated with poverty status and the presence of large African American populations. While causation cannot be inferred from correlative data, this analysis highlights the need to consider the role of social and economic factors in infant morbidity. It also highlights the need to target interventions and services to geographic areas most in need

The Influence of Group Development on Stress Appraisal and Coping Responses of Expedition Trip Leaders

Group development has the potential to contribute to our understanding of stress appraisal and coping among expedition trip leaders. Despite extensive research on the stress-coping process in daily life, there has been little effort to determine how expedition leaders appraise and cope with stress in environments characterized by risk and uncertainty. Group development stages and the stress-coping process have been researched independently, but what remains to be explored is their potential inter-relationship. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between Tuckman\u27s stages of group development, stress appraisal, and coping responses among trip leaders of multi-day wilderness expeditions. More specifically, the study investigated how stress appraisal and coping responses varied among trip leaders at different stages of group development. The nature of this study warranted a qualitative approach, as semi structured in-depth interviews provide an exclusive vantage point for investigating the interplay between group development, stress appraisal, and coping responses among trip leaders. A total of twelve interviews were conducted with employees at an outdoor program dedicated to providing experiential education, life skill development, and adventure experiences to teenagers with mild to severe learning disabilities. The evidence suggests that trip leaders undergo a dynamic stress-coping process that is influenced by group development. Furthermore, there are numerous personal and situational influences that effect not only group development and stress appraisal, but coping efficacy and the outcomes of the trip as a whole. Although stress was most salient in the storming and adjourning stages, it also occurred when groups were norming and performing

Inter-species horizontal transfer resulting in core-genome and niche-adaptive variation within Helicobacter pylori

Background Horizontal gene transfer is central to evolution in most bacterial species. The detection of exchanged regions is often based upon analysis of compositional characteristics and their comparison to the organism as a whole. In this study we describe a new methodology combining aspects of established signature analysis with textual analysis approaches. This approach has been used to analyze the two available genome sequences of H. pylori. Results This gene-by-gene analysis reveals a wide range of genes related to both virulence behaviour and the strain differences that have been relatively recently acquired from other sequence backgrounds. These frequently involve single genes or small numbers of genes that are not associated with transposases or bacteriophage genes, nor with inverted repeats typically used as markers for horizontal transfer. In addition, clear examples of horizontal exchange in genes associated with 'core' metabolic functions were identified, supported by differences between the sequenced strains, including: ftsK, xerD and polA. In some cases it was possible to determine which strain represented the 'parent' and 'altered' states for insertion-deletion events. Different signature component lengths showed different sensitivities for the detection of some horizontally transferred genes, which may reflect different amelioration rates of sequence components. Conclusion New implementations of signature analysis that can be applied on a gene-by-gene basis for the identification of horizontally acquired sequences are described. These findings highlight the central role of the availability of homologous substrates in evolution mediated by horizontal exchange, and suggest that some components of the supposedly stable 'core genome' may actually be favoured targets for integration of foreign sequences because of their degree of conservation

Bangsa yang maju adalah bangsa yang celik sejarah

Telah menjadi kebiasaan bagi rakyat Malaysia setiap 31 Ogos kita akan merayakan sambutan kemerdekaan. Bangga sungguh kita menjadi rakyat Malaysia yang mana negaranya aman, makmur dan sejahtera. Orang luar pun suka datang dan tinggal di sini dan mereka juga mengiyakan bahawa Malaysia sungguh aman dan sejahtera. Apa yang penting, di sini tidak ada bom yang jatuh di sana dan jatuh di sini. Sebab itulah hari kemerdekaan dapat disambut dengan penuh meriah. Harus diingat sambutan kemerdekaan bukan sahaja cukup dengan meraikannya, memperingati perjuangan orang-orang terdahulu, pengisian ceramah, pertandingan esei sempena kemerdekaan, dan mengibarkan bendera. Asas untuk seseorang itu menghargai kemerdekaan dan keamanan yang dikecapi selama ini adalah dengan mempelajari dan menghayati perjalanan sejarah negara

Business Traveler Behavior after the Great Recession

The recent “Great Recession” prompted traditional business travelers to alter typical travel spending habits. One apparent behavioral change for travelers, highlighted in the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer expenditure data, identified travelers’ tendency to buy significantly more groceries after the recession. This multiyear, longitudinal study revealed that business travelers doubled the consumption of grocery items after the recession as a possible means for alleviating non-subsidized food and beverage expenses. The employed business person, whose travel expenditures are wholly or partially subsidized by an employer, also appeared to drastically reduce personal travel expenditures for traditionally non-subsidized purchases. This study suggests that business travelers’ food consumption, tourism expenditures, length of stay and shopping behavior were affected by the recent recession. In addition, the responsible agents for the travelers in this study appeared to apply a conventional strategy for reducing the recession’s impact on the profit margin by reducing the length of the trips

The Impact of the Recent Recession Upon Tourism Behavior

The Labor Department’s 2012 report on consumer spending confirmed the recent recession forced consumers to alter the typical lifestyle spending habits. It’s apparent from the available consumer expenditure data that changes in the spending behavior for travelers dining choices continued beyond several years into the recovery period. In fact, the recorded decrease in food expenditures, from December 2007 to June 2009, was the largest inflation-adjusted amount ever recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) since 1984. The increase in unemployment to 9.3% in 2009 was another important attribute of the consumers’ reduced spending levels during this recessionary period. According to the Food Expenditure Tables and the consumer Expenditure Survey U.S. household spending on food declined 5% between 2006 and 2009

Drowning of Pet Owners during Attempted Animal Rescues: The AVIR-A Syndrome

The rescuer who drowns can result from the attempted rescue of a human or an animal. We report here a total population analysis of all drowning fatalities for the 14-year period 1–July-2002 to 30-June-2016 which involved an attempted rescue of an animal. Cases were drawn from the Royal Life Saving National Fatal Drowning Database, which in turn, derived its data primarily from the National Coronial Information System (NCIS). Eight people drowned, all adults (ranging in age from 19-74 years), in the attempted rescue of an animal. Seven of the animals were domestic pet dogs, and in two cases farm animals. Six of the eight fatalities occurred in inland waterways. The AVIR-A syndrome, the ‘Aquatic Victim Instead of Rescuer– Animal’ (AVIR-A) drowning syndrome, is a subset of the AVIR drowning syndrome. Environmental design and regulation are unlikely to prevent this type of fatality. Public awareness, with emphasis on non-contact rescue training should be the approach taken

Studies on canine myocardial blood flow related to anaesthesia: An examination of the effects of changes in blood gas tensions and blood pressure

The contents of this thesis describe experiments which attempt to determine the responses of blood flow and oxygen consumption in the myocardium along with those of systemic haemodynamic variables to certain of the physiological changes which are imposed by or encountered by anaesthetists in their daily work with patients. The experiments were carried out on closed-chest anaesthetised dogs and the responses to the following conditions have been examined: 1. hypocapnia, induced firstly by increasing minute ventilation of the lungs and secondly, by the withdrawal of carbon dioxide gas which had previously been added to the inspired gas mixture of the hyperventilated animal. 2. hypotension induced by three dose levels of halothane. 3. the combination of halothane-induced hypotension and hypocapnia. 4. hypercapnia induced by the addition of carbon dioxide gas to the inspired gases. 5. hypoxia induced by reduction of the inspired oxygen concentration. 6. hypotension induced by haemorrhage of two different grades of severity (moderate and severe). An experiments were carried out under light general anaesthesia which was usually induced with thiopentone and maintained with trichloroethylene. In 2 and 3 above (i.e. those experiments involving halothane) anaesthesia was induced with pentobarbitone. Catheters were positioned in the left coronary artery, the coronary sinus, the ascending aorta and the right atrium under radiographic control using an image intensifier. Myocardial blood flow was measured by estimating the rate of clearance of the radioactive isotope 133Xenon which was injected, in solution, into the coronary artery. Xenon clearance was estimated using a scintillation counter suspended externally over the praecordial area. The clearance was displayed as a curve from which the half time of the clearance was calculated and the half time, when substituted in an equation which was derived on the basis of the Pick principle, allowed the calculation of myocardial blood flow. Blood oxygen content was calculated from blood oxygen tension. Myocardial oxygen consumption was calculated as the product of the measured blood flow and the arterial-coronary sinus oxygen content difference. Hypocapnia of moderate degree (arterial carbon dioxide tension 25 mmHg) caused a significant reduction in myocardial blood flow with an associated increase in myocardial oxygen extraction so that oxygen consumption of the myocardium was unaltered. This degree of hypocapnia did not cause significant systemic haemodynamic changes nor were any metabolic changes observed in the myocardium. Hypotension induced with halothane caused a dose-related reduction in myocardial blood flow and oxygen consumption along with corresponding reductions in heart rate and cardiac output. The higher doses of halothane (1.0% and 1.5%) were associated with increases in myocardial vascular resistance. The decremental effects of halothane-induced hypotension and hypocapnia on myocardial blood flow were additive when the two conditions were produced simultaneously. During recovery from halothane-induced hypotension, arterial blood pressure gave a poor indication of returning myocardial function. Hypercapnia caused a marked but poorly sustained increase in myocardial blood flow along with a considerable but also poorly sustained reduction in myocardial oxygen consumption. Systemic haemodynamic changes were unremarkable. Similar changes occurred when metabolic acidosis was artificially produced by the infusion of lactic or hydrochloric acid. The responses to hypercapnia were unaffected by beta adrenergic blockade or partial parasympathetic blockade. Hypoxia did not cause changes in myocardial blood flow until the arterial oxygen tension fell to less than 35 mmHg when a brisk increase in flow occurred. Oxygen consumption was unaffected if hypoxia was sustained for less than 20 minutes. However oxygen consumption fell when hypoxia was sustained for longer periods. Hypoxia was associated with increased blood pressure, increased or decreased heart rate, frequent cardiac arrhythmias and, when sustained, with metabolic acidosis. The responses to hypoxia were not affected by beta adrenergic blockade or partial parasympathetic blockade. Haemorrhagic hypotension was associated with considerable reductions in myocardial blood flow. Severe haemorrhage was accompanied by a marked fall in myocardial vascular resistance and also by respiratory and metabolic acidosis. Myocardial oxygen consumption was reduced and oxygen extraction increased, the latter especially so during moderate haemorrhage