Comparing trends in the Southern Annular Mode and surface westerly jet

We examine trends in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the strength, position and width of the Southern Hemisphere surface westerly wind jet in observations, reanalyses and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. First we consider the period over 1951 to 2011, and show that there are differences in the SAM and jet trends between the CMIP5 models, the HadSLP2r gridded sea-level pressure (SLP) dataset, and the Twentieth Century Reanalysis. The relationships between these trends demonstrates that the SAM index cannot be used to directly infer changes in any one kinematic property of the jet. The spatial structure of the observed trends in SLP and zonal winds is shown to be largest, but also most uncertain, in the southeast Pacific. To constrain this uncertainty we include six reanalyses and compare with station based observations of SLP. We find the CMIP5 mean SLP trends generally agree well with the direct observations, despite some climatological biases, while some reanalyses exhibit spuriously large SLP trends. Similarly, over the more reliable satellite era the spatial pattern of CMIP5 SLP trends is in excellent agreement with HadSLP2r, while several reanalyses are not. Then we compare surface winds with a satellite based product, and show that the CMIP5 mean trend is similar to observed in the core region of the westerlies, but that several reanalyses overestimate recent trends. We caution that studies examining the impact of wind changes on the Southern Ocean could be biased by these spuriously large trends in reanalysis products

Blindness Due to Polymicrogyria and Asymmetrical Dilation of the Lateral Ventricles in Standard Poodles

Polymicrogyria and asymmetric dilation of the lateral ventricles were seen in related Standard poodles that had cortical blindness. Three of the affected dogs also had gait and postural abnormalities, and one of these had seizures.Two of the affected dogs were littermates. Thorough ophthalmologic and neurologic examinations (including electroretinography, electromyography, cerebrospinal fluid analysis, plain radiographs, and computerized tomography scans) revealed no significant abnormalities outside of the brain that would account for the blindness. Computerized tomography scans in three dogs demonstrated bilateral dilation of the lateral ventricles which was more severe in the right. All dogs were necropsied between 5 and 9 months of age and had strikingly similar brain abnormalities. Numerous small irregular gyri with shallow sulci covered the middle and caudal dorsal and lateral cerebral cortex. The bony ridges of the inner calvaria in this area conformed to the underlying microgyral pattern. The lateral ventricles were asymmetrically dilated with the right more severely affected, particularly in the occipital area, and the cortical grey and white matter, including the corpus callosum, were thinned in these areas. The third and fourth ventricles and mesencephalic aqueduct were normal. Histologically, there was thinning and simplification of the cortical grey matter with an increased density of medium to large neurons. The corona radiata and subcortical white matter were also thinner than normal with no evidence of demyelination of astrocytic scarring. This congenital anomaly of the visual cortex causing blindness in the Standard Poodle appears to be inherited as an autosomal recessive trait

Back to the future: Using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of antarctic climate

Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this.The Antarctic Climate Change in the 21st Century (AntClim21) Scientific Research Programme of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research are thanked for supporting the international scientific workshop at which the writing of this manuscript was initiated. This is a contribution to the PAGES 2k Network (through the CLIVASH 2k project). NJA acknowledges support by the Australian Research Council through a Future Fellowship (FT160100029) and the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CE170100023). SJP was supported under the Australian Research Council’s Special Research Initiative for the Antarctic Gateway Partnership (Project ID SR140300001). JMJ acknowledges support from the Leverhulme Trust through a Research Fellowship (RF-2018-183). FC acknowledges support from the PNRA national Italian projects PNRA16_00016, “WHISPERS” and project PNRA_00002, “ANTIPODE”. TJB, LS, and ERT were supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) as part of the British Antarctic Survey Polar Science for Planet Earth Programme. TJB additionally acknowledges support for this work as a contribution to the NERC grant NE/N01829X/1. IW thanks FAPESP 2015/50686-1, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) Finance Code 001 and CNPq 300970/2018-8, CNPq INCT Criosfera 704222/200

Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information

This chapter assesses simulations of future global climate change, spanning time horizons from the near term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long term (2081–2100) out to the year 2300. Changes are assessed relative to both the recent past (1995–2014) and the 1850–1900 approximation to the pre-industrial period

Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity

The relatively muted warming of the surface and lower troposphere since 1998 has attracted considerable attention. One contributory factor to this “warming hiatus” is an increase in volcanically induced cooling over the early 21st century. Here we identify the signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity in multiple observed climate variables. Volcanic signals are statistically discernible in spatial averages of tropical and near-global SST, tropospheric temperature, net clear-sky short-wave radiation, and atmospheric water vapor. Signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic eruptions are also detectable in near-global averages of rainfall. In tropical average rainfall, however, only a Pinatubo-caused drying signal is identifiable. Successful volcanic signal detection is critically dependent on removal of variability induced by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS-1342810