Mean Field Theory For Non-Equilibrium Network Reconstruction

There has been recent progress on the problem of inferring the structure of interactions in complex networks when they are in stationary states satisfying detailed balance, but little has been done for non-equilibrium systems. Here we introduce an approach to this problem, considering, as an example, the question of recovering the interactions in an asymmetrically-coupled, synchronously-updated Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model. We derive an exact iterative inversion algorithm and develop efficient approximations based on dynamical mean-field and Thouless-Anderson-Palmer equations that express the interactions in terms of equal-time and one time step-delayed correlation functions.Comment: new version, accepted in PRL. For the Supp. Mat. (ref. 11), please contact the author

Statistical physics of pairwise probability models

Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using a reasonable amount of data: knowledge of the means and correlations between pairs of elements in the system is sufficient. Not surprisingly, then, using pairwise models for studying neural data has been the focus of many studies in recent years. In this paper, we describe how tools from statistical physics can be employed for studying and using pairwise models. We build on our previous work on the subject and study the relation between different methods for fitting these models and evaluating their quality. In particular, using data from simulated cortical networks we study how the quality of various approximate methods for inferring the parameters in a pairwise model depends on the time bin chosen for binning the data. We also study the effect of the size of the time bin on the model quality itself, again using simulated data. We show that using finer time bins increases the quality of the pairwise model. We offer new ways of deriving the expressions reported in our previous work for assessing the quality of pairwise models.Comment: 25 pages, 3 figure

The Ising Model for Neural Data: Model Quality and Approximate Methods for Extracting Functional Connectivity

We study pairwise Ising models for describing the statistics of multi-neuron spike trains, using data from a simulated cortical network. We explore efficient ways of finding the optimal couplings in these models and examine their statistical properties. To do this, we extract the optimal couplings for subsets of size up to 200 neurons, essentially exactly, using Boltzmann learning. We then study the quality of several approximate methods for finding the couplings by comparing their results with those found from Boltzmann learning. Two of these methods- inversion of the TAP equations and an approximation proposed by Sessak and Monasson- are remarkably accurate. Using these approximations for larger subsets of neurons, we find that extracting couplings using data from a subset smaller than the full network tends systematically to overestimate their magnitude. This effect is described qualitatively by infinite-range spin glass theory for the normal phase. We also show that a globally-correlated input to the neurons in the network lead to a small increase in the average coupling. However, the pair-to-pair variation of the couplings is much larger than this and reflects intrinsic properties of the network. Finally, we study the quality of these models by comparing their entropies with that of the data. We find that they perform well for small subsets of the neurons in the network, but the fit quality starts to deteriorate as the subset size grows, signalling the need to include higher order correlations to describe the statistics of large networks.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figure

Superconducting Quantum Critical Point

We study the properties of a quantum critical point which develops in a BCS superconductor when pair-breaking suppresses the transition temperature to zero. The pair fluctuations are characterized by a dynamical critical exponent z=2. Except for very low temperatures, anomalous contribution to the conductivity is proportional to the square root of T in three dimensions, but to 1/T in two dimensions. At lowest temperatures, the conductivity correction varies as T to the power 1/4 in three dimensions, and as ln(1/T) in two.Comment: 3 pages, 3 Postscript figures, Late

Inferring network connectivity using kinetic Ising models

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How well can we estimate the information carried in neuronal responses from limited samples?

It is difficult to extract the information carried by neuronal responses about a set of stimuli because limited data samples result in biased estimates. Recently two improved procedures have been developed to calculate information from experimental results: a binning-and-correcting procedure and a neural network procedure. We have used data produced from a model of the spatiotemporal receptive fields of parvocellular and magnocellular lateral geniculate neurons to study the performance of these methods as a function of the number of trials used. Both procedures yield accurate results for one-dimensional neuronal codes. They can also be used to produce a reasonable estimate of the extra information in a three-dimensional code, in this instance, within 0.05-0.1 bit of the asymptotically calculated value - about 10% of the total transmitted information. We believe that this performance is much more accurate than previous procedures

Incidence of human brucellosis in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania in the periods 2007-2008 and 2012-2014

Background: Brucellosis causes substantial morbidity among humans and their livestock. There are few robust estimates of the incidence of brucellosis in sub-Saharan Africa. Using cases identified through sentinel hospital surveillance and health care utilization data, we estimated the incidence of brucellosis in Moshi Urban and Moshi Rural Districts, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania, for the periods 2007–2008 and 2012–2014. Methods: Cases were identified among febrile patients at two sentinel hospitals and were defined as having either a 4-fold increase in Brucella microscopic agglutination test titres between acute and convalescent serum or a blood culture positive for Brucella spp. Findings from a health care utilization survey were used to estimate multipliers to account for cases not seen at sentinel hospitals. Results: Of 585 patients enrolled in the period 2007–2008, 13 (2.2%) had brucellosis. Among 1095 patients enrolled in the period 2012–2014, 32 (2.9%) had brucellosis. We estimated an incidence (range based on sensitivity analysis) of brucellosis of 35 (range 32–93) cases per 100 000 persons annually in the period 2007–2008 and 33 (range 30–89) cases per 100 000 persons annually in the period 2012–2014. Conclusions: We found a moderate incidence of brucellosis in northern Tanzania, suggesting that the disease is endemic and an important human health problem in this area

1979 Commercial Fruit Spray Guide

This archival publication may not reflect current scientific knowledge or recommendations. Current information available from the University of Minnesota Extension: https://www.extension.umn.edu

Comparison of the estimated incidence of acute leptospirosis in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania between 2007-08 and 2012-14

Background: The sole report of annual leptospirosis incidence in continental Africa of 75–102 cases per 100,000 population is from a study performed in August 2007 through September 2008 in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. To evaluate the stability of this estimate over time, we estimated the incidence of acute leptospirosis in Kilimanjaro Region, northern Tanzania for the time period 2012–2014. Methodology and Principal Findings: Leptospirosis cases were identified among febrile patients at two sentinel hospitals in the Kilimanjaro Region. Leptospirosis was diagnosed by serum microscopic agglutination testing using a panel of 20 Leptospira serovars belonging to 17 separate serogroups. Serum was taken at enrolment and patients were asked to return 4–6 weeks later to provide convalescent serum. Confirmed cases required a 4-fold rise in titre and probable cases required a single titre of ≥800. Findings from a healthcare utilisation survey were used to estimate multipliers to adjust for cases not seen at sentinel hospitals. We identified 19 (1.7%) confirmed or probable cases among 1,115 patients who presented with a febrile illness. Of cases, the predominant reactive serogroups were Australis 8 (42.1%), Sejroe 3 (15.8%), Grippotyphosa 2 (10.5%), Icterohaemorrhagiae 2 (10.5%), Pyrogenes 2 (10.5%), Djasiman 1 (5.3%), Tarassovi 1 (5.3%). We estimated that the annual incidence of leptospirosis was 11–18 cases per 100,000 population. This was a significantly lower incidence than 2007–08 (p&lt;0.001). Conclusions: We estimated a much lower incidence of acute leptospirosis than previously, with a notable absence of cases due to the previously predominant serogroup Mini. Our findings indicate a dynamic epidemiology of leptospirosis in this area and highlight the value of multi-year surveillance to understand leptospirosis epidemiology

Glassy Transition and Aging in a Model without Disorder

We study the off-equilibrium relaxational dynamics of the Amit-Roginsky $\phi^3$ field theory, for which the mode coupling approximation is exact. We show that complex phenomena such as aging and ergodicity breaking are present at low temperature, similarly to what is found in long range spin glasses. This is a generalization of mode coupling theory of the structural glass transition to off-equilibrium situations.Comment: 9 pages, 1 uuencoded figure, LaTex, preprint NORDITA 94/3