Estimating multivariate latent-structure models

© Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2016. A constructive proof of identification of multilinear decompositions of multiway arrays is presented. It can be applied to show identification in a variety of multivariate latent structures. Examples are finite-mixture models and hidden Markov models. The key step to show identification is the joint diagonalization of a set of matrices in the same nonorthogonal basis. An estimator of the latent-structure model may then be based on a sample version of this joint-diagonalization problem. Algorithms are available for computation and we derive distribution theory. We further develop asymptotic theory for orthogonal-series estimators of component densities in mixture models and emission densities in hidden Markov models.Supported by European Research Council Grant ERC-2010-StG-0263107-ENMUH. Supported by Sciences Po’s SAB grant “Nonparametric estimation of finite mixtures.” Supported by European Research Council Grant ERC-2010-AdG-269693-WASP and by Economic and Social Research Council Grant RES-589-28-0001 through the Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice

Nonparametric estimation of non-exchangeable latent-variable models

We propose a two-step method to nonparametrically estimate multivariate models in which the observed outcomes are independent conditional on a discrete latent variable. Applications include microeconometric models with unobserved types of agents, regime-switching models, and models with misclassification error. In the first step, we estimate weights that transform moments of the marginal distribution of the data into moments of the conditional distribution of the data for given values of the latent variable. In the second step, these conditional moments are estimated as weighted sample averages. We illustrate the method by estimating a model of wages with unobserved heterogeneity on PSID data

Non-parametric estimation of finite mixtures from repeated measurements

Summary This paper provides methods to estimate finite mixtures from data with repeated measurements non-parametrically. We present a constructive identification argument and use it to develop simple two-step estimators of the component distributions and all their functionals. We discuss a computationally efficient method for estimation and derive asymptotic theory. Simulation experiments suggest that our theory provides confidence intervals with good coverage in small samples.</jats:p

Statistical Inference in a Directed Network Model with Covariates

Networks are often characterized by node heterogeneity for which nodes exhibit different degrees of interaction and link homophily for which nodes sharing common features tend to associate with each other. In this paper, we propose a new directed network model to capture the former via node-specific parametrization and the latter by incorporating covariates. In particular, this model quantifies the extent of heterogeneity in terms of outgoingness and incomingness of each node by different parameters, thus allowing the number of heterogeneity parameters to be twice the number of nodes. We study the maximum likelihood estimation of the model and establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators. Numerical studies demonstrate our theoretical findings and a data analysis confirms the usefulness of our model.Comment: 29 pages. minor revisio

A facile quantitative assay for viral particle genesis reveals cooperativity in virion assembly and saturation of an antiviral protein

Conventional assays of viral particle assembly and release are time consuming and laborious. We have developed an enzymatic virus-like particle (VLP) genesis assay that rapid and quantitative and is also versatile and applicable to diverse viruses including HIV-1 and Ebola virus. Using this assay, which has a dynamic range of several orders of magnitude, we show that the efficiency of VLP assembly and release, i.e., the fraction of the expressed protein that is assembled into extracellular particles, is dependent on the absolute level of expression of either HIV-1 Gag or Ebola virus VP40. We also demonstrate that the activity of the antiviral factor tetherin is dependent on the level of HIV-1 Gag expression and the numbers of VLPs generated, and appears to become saturated as these parameters are increased

Belgian clinical guidance on anticoagulation management in hospitalised and ambulatory patients with COVID-19

Objectives COVID-19 predisposes patients to thrombotic disease. The aim of this guidance document is to provide Belgian health-care workers with recommendations on anticoagulation management in COVID-19 positive patients. Methods These recommendations were based on current knowledge and a limited level of evidence. Results We formulated recommendations for the prophylaxis and treatment of COVID-related venous thromboembolism in ambulatory and hospitalised patients, as well as recommendations for the use of antithrombotic drugs in patients with prior indication for anticoagulation who develop COVID-19. Conclusions These recommendations represent an easy-to-use practical guidance that can be implemented in every Belgian hospital and be used by primary care physicians and gynaecologists. Of note, they are likely to evolve with increased knowledge of the disease and availability of data from ongoing clinical trials

The combined treatment of Molnupiravir and Favipiravir results in a potentiation of antiviral efficacy in a SARS-CoV-2 hamster infection model

BACKGROUND: Favipiravir and Molnupiravir, orally available antivirals, have been reported to exert antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2. First efficacy data have been recently reported in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: We here report on the combined antiviral effect of both drugs in a SARS-CoV-2 Syrian hamster infection model. The infected hamsters were treated twice daily with the vehicle (the control group) or a suboptimal dose of each compound or a combination of both compounds. FINDINGS: When animals were treated with a combination of suboptimal doses of Molnupiravir and Favipiravir at the time of infection, a marked combined potency at endpoint is observed. Infectious virus titers in the lungs of animals treated with the combination are reduced by ∼5 log10 and infectious virus are no longer detected in the lungs of >60% of treated animals. When start of treatment was delayed with one day a reduction of titers in the lungs of 2.4 log10 was achieved. Moreover, treatment of infected animals nearly completely prevented transmission to co-housed untreated sentinels. Both drugs result in an increased mutation frequency of the remaining viral RNA recovered from the lungs of treated animals. In the combo-treated hamsters, an increased frequency of C-to-T mutations in the viral RNA is observed as compared to the single treatment groups which may explain the pronounced antiviral potency of the combination. INTERPRETATION: Our findings may lay the basis for the design of clinical studies to test the efficacy of the combination of Molnupiravir/Favipiravir in the treatment of COVID-19. FUNDING: stated in the acknowledgment

HIV-1 Polymerase Inhibition by Nucleoside Analogs: Cellular- and Kinetic Parameters of Efficacy, Susceptibility and Resistance Selection

Nucleoside analogs (NAs) are used to treat numerous viral infections and cancer. They compete with endogenous nucleotides (dNTP/NTP) for incorporation into nascent DNA/RNA and inhibit replication by preventing subsequent primer extension. To date, an integrated mathematical model that could allow the analysis of their mechanism of action, of the various resistance mechanisms, and their effect on viral fitness is still lacking. We present the first mechanistic mathematical model of polymerase inhibition by NAs that takes into account the reversibility of polymerase inhibition. Analytical solutions for the model point out the cellular- and kinetic aspects of inhibition. Our model correctly predicts for HIV-1 that resistance against nucleoside analog reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) can be conferred by decreasing their incorporation rate, increasing their excision rate, or decreasing their affinity for the polymerase enzyme. For all analyzed NRTIs and their combinations, model-predicted macroscopic parameters (efficacy, fitness and toxicity) were consistent with observations. NRTI efficacy was found to greatly vary between distinct target cells. Surprisingly, target cells with low dNTP/NTP levels may not confer hyper-susceptibility to inhibition, whereas cells with high dNTP/NTP contents are likely to confer natural resistance. Our model also allows quantification of the selective advantage of mutations by integrating their effects on viral fitness and drug susceptibility. For zidovudine triphosphate (AZT-TP), we predict that this selective advantage, as well as the minimal concentration required to select thymidine-associated mutations (TAMs) are highly cell-dependent. The developed model allows studying various resistance mechanisms, inherent fitness effects, selection forces and epistasis based on microscopic kinetic data. It can readily be embedded in extended models of the complete HIV-1 reverse transcription process, or analogous processes in other viruses and help to guide drug development and improve our understanding of the mechanisms of resistance development during treatment

Rivaroxaban:Xarelto® - Recommendations for pharmacists

Rivaroxaban is one of the new oral anticoagulants (NOACs) (recommended as reference treatments when a long-term anticoagulation is needed). It has many potential advantages in comparison with Vitamin K Antagonists (VKA). It has a predictable anticoagulant effect and does not theoretically require biological monitoring. It is also characterized by less food and drug interactions. However, due to major risks associated with over- and under-dosage, its optimal use in patients should be carefully followed by health care professionals. The aim of this article is to provide recommendations for pharmacists on the practical use of Xarelto® in its different approved indications. This document is adapted from the practical user guide of rivaroxaban which was developed by an independent group of Belgian experts in the field of thrombosis and haemostasis