Extending Life Cycle Models of Optimal Portfolio Choice: Integrating Flexible Work, Endogenous Retirement, and Investment Decisions with Lifetime Payouts

This paper derives optimal life cycle portfolio asset allocations as well as annuity purchases trajectories for a consumer who can select her hours of work and also her retirement age. Using a realistically-calibrated model with stochastic mortality and uncertain labor income, we extend the investment universe to include not only stocks and bonds, but also survival-contingent payout annuities. We show that making labor supply endogenous raises older peoples’ equity share; substantially increases work effort by the young; and markedly enhances lifetime welfare. Also, introducing annuities leads to earlier retirement and higher participation by the elderly in financial markets. Finally, when we allow for an age-dependent leisure preference parameter, this fits well with observed evidence in that it generates lower work hours and smaller equity holdings at older ages as well as sensible retirement age patterns.

Life Cycle Impacts of the Financial Crisis on Optimal Consumption—Portfolio Choices and Labor Supply

The direct financial impact of the financial crisis has been to deal a heavy blow to investment-based pensions; many workers lost a substantial portion of their retirement saving. The financial sector implosion produced an economic crisis for the rest of the economy via high unemployment and reduced labor earnings, which reduced household contributions to Social Security and some private pensions. Our research asks which types of individuals were most affected by these dual financial and economic shocks, and it also explores how people may react by changing their consumption, saving and investment, work and retirement, and annuitization decisions. We do so with a realistically calibrated lifecycle framework allowing for time-varying investment opportunities and countercyclical risky labor income dynamics. We show that households near retirement will reduce both short- and long-term consumption, boost work effort, and defer retirement. Younger cohorts will initially reduce their work hours, consumption, saving, and equity exposure; later in life, they will work more, retire later, consume less, invest more in stocks, save more, and reduce their demand for private annuities

Lifecycle Impacts of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Household Optimal Consumption, Portfolio Choice, and Labor Supply

The direct financial impact of the financial crisis has been to deal a heavy blow to investment-based pensions; many workers lost a substantial portion of their retirement saving. The financial sector implosion in turn produced an economic crisis for the rest of the economy via high unemployment and reduced labor earnings, which reduced contributions to Social Security and private pensions. Our research asks which types of individuals were most affected by these dual financial and economic shocks, and it also explores how people may react by changing their consumption, saving and investment, work and retirement, and annuitization decisions. We do so with a realistically calibrated lifecycle framework allowing for time-varying investment opportunities and countercyclical risky labor income dynamics. We show that households near retirement will reduce both short- and long-term consumption, boost work effort, and defer retirement. Younger cohorts will initially reduce their work hours, consumption, saving, and equity exposure; later in life, they will have to work more, retire later, consume less, invest more in stocks, and save more.Social Security Administrationhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/87952/1/wp246.pd

Optimal Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle with Flexible Work, Endogenous Retirement, and Lifetime Payouts

We derive optimal life-cycle asset allocations for a consumer who selects hours of work and retirement age, given uncertain labor income and investment returns. Shocks in labor income and capital markets interact to influence retirement and asset allocation patterns in complex ways. When workers can adjust work hours and retirement flexibly, and they also have access to lifetime payout markets, they will respond to negative labor market shocks and high stock returns by working less while young, buying more annuities, and retiring early; this flexibility enhances welfare. Further, our model is able to fit several important empirical stylized facts, such as the two peaks in retirement rates, the hump-shaped pattern of work hours, the sizeable discontinuity in consumption at retirement, and the low annuity take-ups of older households

Emotional Regulation, Level of Depression, Anxiety and Stress among Alcohol Abusers and Non-Abusers

The study was to examine the levels of depression anxiety and stress, as well as emotion regulation strategies among alcohol abusers and non-abusers. One hundred and fifty alcohol abusers who were admitted in department of psychiatry ward in hospital and one hundred and fifty normal people who were in general population were enrolled in the study. Depression, anxiety and stress scale (DASS-42) and emotional regulation questionnaires were used to assesses the depression, anxiety and stress reaction and emotional regulation of alcohol abusers and non-abusers. Alcohol abusers had higher level of depression, anxiety and stress reaction, as well as lower level of cognitive reappraisal and higher level of suppression compared with normal people. Cognitive reappraisal and suppression had significantly negative correlation with depression, anxiety and stress reaction in healthy people while they had no significantly correlation with depression, anxiety and stress reaction in abuser group. Further, both cognitive reappraisal and suppression significantly predicated depression, anxiety and stress reaction in healthy people while they did not predicate depression, anxiety and stress in alcohol abusers. Alcohol abusers had obvious depression, anxiety and stress reaction, as well as inappropriate copying strategies. Both cognitive reappraisal and suppression could predicate negative emotion and stress reaction in normal population but the emotional regulation failed to predicate negative emotion and stress reaction in alcohol abusers

Emotional Regulation, Level of Depression, Anxiety and Stress among Alcohol Abusers and Non-Abusers

The study was to examine the levels of depression anxiety and stress, as well as emotion regulation strategies among alcohol abusers and non-abusers. One hundred and fifty alcohol abusers who were admitted in department of psychiatry ward in hospital and one hundred and fifty normal people who were in general population were enrolled in the study. Depression, anxiety and stress scale (DASS-42) and emotional regulation questionnaires were used to assesses the depression, anxiety and stress reaction and emotional regulation of alcohol abusers and non-abusers. Alcohol abusers had higher level of depression, anxiety and stress reaction, as well as lower level of cognitive reappraisal and higher level of suppression compared with normal people. Cognitive reappraisal and suppression had significantly negative correlation with depression, anxiety and stress reaction in healthy people while they had no significantly correlation with depression, anxiety and stress reaction in abuser group. Further, both cognitive reappraisal and suppression significantly predicated depression, anxiety and stress reaction in healthy people while they did not predicate depression, anxiety and stress in alcohol abusers. Alcohol abusers had obvious depression, anxiety and stress reaction, as well as inappropriate copying strategies. Both cognitive reappraisal and suppression could predicate negative emotion and stress reaction in normal population but the emotional regulation failed to predicate negative emotion and stress reaction in alcohol abusers

Asymptotic behavior of solutions of a Fisher equation with free boundaries and nonlocal term

We study the asymptotic behavior of solutions of a Fisher equation with free boundaries and the nonlocal term (an integral convolution in space). This problem can model the spreading of a biological or chemical species, where free boundaries represent the spreading fronts of the species. We give a dichotomy result, that is, the solution either converges to $1$ locally uniformly in $\mathbb{R}$, or to $0$ uniformly in the occupying domain. Moreover, we give the sharp threshold when the initial data $u_0=\sigma \phi$, that is, there exists $\sigma^*>0$ such that spreading happens when $\sigma>\sigma^*$, and vanishing happens when $\sigma\leq \sigma^*$

Asymptotic behavior of solutions of a Fisher equation with free boundaries and nonlocal term

We study the asymptotic behavior of solutions of a Fisher equation with free boundaries and the nonlocal term (an integral convolution in space). This problem can model the spreading of a biological or chemical species, where free boundaries represent the spreading fronts of the species. We give a dichotomy result, that is, the solution either converges to 1 locally uniformly in R, or to 0 uniformly in the occupying domain. Moreover, we give the sharp threshold when the initial data u0 = σφ, that is, there exists σ ∗ > 0 such that spreading happens when σ > σ , and vanishing happens when σ ≤

Exchanging Delayed Social Security Benefits for Lump Sums: Could This Incentivize Longer Work Careers?

Working Paper 2012-266Social Security benefits are currently provided as a lifelong benefit stream, though some workers would be willing to trade a portion of their annuity streams in exchange for a lump sum amount. This paper explores whether allowing people to receive a lump sum as a payment for delayed retirement rather than as an addition to their lifetime Social Security benefits might induce them to work longer. We model the factors that influence how people trade off a Social Security stream for a lump sum, and we also examine the consequences of such tradeoffs for work, retirement, and life cycle wellbeing. Our base case indicates that workers given the chance to receive their delayed retirement credit as a lump sum payment would boost their average retirement age by l.5-2 years. This will interest policymakers seeking to reform the Social Security system without raising costs or cutting benefits, while enhancing the incentives to delay retirement.Social Security Administrationhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/97020/1/wp266.pd

Development and validation of polyamines metabolism-associated gene signatures to predict prognosis and immunotherapy response in lung adenocarcinoma

BackgroundPolyamines metabolism is closely related to tumor development and progression, as well as tumor microenvironment (TME). In this study, we focused on exploring whether polyamines metabolism-associated genes would provide prognosis and immunotherapy response prediction in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD).MethodsThe expression profile data of polyamines metabolism-associated genes were acquired from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Utilizing the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm, we created a risk score model according to polyamines metabolism-associated gene signatures. Meanwhile, an independent cohort (GSE72094) was employed to validate this model. Through the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, the independent prognostic factors were identified. Subsequently, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) was performed to detect their expression in LUAD cells. By consensus clustering analysis, polyamines metabolism-associated subgroups were determined in LUAD patients, with differential gene expression, prognosis, and immune characteristics analyses explored.ResultsA total of 59 polyamines metabolism genes were collected for this study, of which 14 genes were identified for the construction of risk score model using LASSO method. High- and low- risk groups of LUAD patients in TCGA cohort were distinguished via this model, and high-risk group presented dismal clinical outcomes. The same prognostic prediction of this model had been also validated in GSE72094 cohort. Meanwhile, three independent prognostic factors (PSMC6, SMOX, SMS) were determined for constructing the nomogram, and they were all upregulated in LUAD cells. In addition, two distinct subgroups (C1 and C2) were identified in LUAD patients. Comparing the two subgroups, 291 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were acquired, mainly enriching in organelle fission, nuclear division, and cell cycle. Comparing to C1 subgroup, the patients in C2 subgroup had favorable clinical outcomes, increased immune cells infiltration, and effective immunotherapy response.ConclusionThis study identified polyamines metabolism-associated gene signatures for predicting the patients’ survival, and they were also linked to immune cells infiltration and immunotherapy response in LUAD patients