Quantifying the impact of climate and vegetation changes on runoff based on the budyko framework in the Lake Issyk-Kul Basin, Kyrgyzstan

Identifying and quantifying the drivers of runoff (R) variability is fundamental to our understanding of the hydrologic cycle and necessary for decision makers to manage water resources. Climate variables and vegetation are the main factors influencing the R. However, the effects of climate and vegetation changes on R are still poorly understood, especially in arid regions with limited water resources. This study quantifies the contribution of precipitation (PRE), potential evapotranspiration (ET0), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to R in Lake Issyk-Kul Basin (LIKB) dryland Central Asia by using the Budyko model. The results showed that R, PRE, and ET0 decreased from 2000 to 2020, while the NDVI and underlying parameter (ω) showed a slightly increasing trend. By using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) statistical approach, divided the R series into a baseline period (2000–2010) and a change period (2011–2020) based on the breakthrough point (2011). In the baseline period, R showed a decreasing trend, while in the change period, R showed an increasing trend of 1.8 mm/yr. The sensitivity analysis shows that a 1 mm increase in PRE results in a 0.48 mm increase in R (sensitivity coefficient to R is 0.48). Conversely, a 1 mm increase in ET0 (sensitivity coefficient to R of −0.03) and a 1 unit increase in NDVI (sensitivity coefficient to R of −343.31) lead to R decreasing by 0.03 and 343.31 mm, respectively. The relative contributions of PRE, ET0 and NDVI were 33.98%, −3.17% and 3.67%, respectively, suggesting that changes in PRE and NDVI contributed to the decrease in R while the opposite for ET0. PRE dominated the decrease in R, which decreased by 26.58 mm, leading to a decrease in R of 12.76 mm. A decrease of 65.33 mm in ET0 and an increase of 0.003 in NDVI resulted in an increase and decrease of 1.96 and 1.18 mm in R, respectively. This study enhances the understanding of the response of the water cycle to climate and vegetation changes in arid regions and can provide theoretical support for water resource management and ecological restoration

Geochemistry of major and trace elements and their environmental significances in core sediments from Bosten Lake, arid northwestern China

Geochemical element concentrations of a 41-cm-long sediment core from Bosten Lake were analyzed with grain size, total organic carbon and total inorganic carbon, and environmental evolution over the past ~150 years was reconstructed. Based on principal component analysis (PCA) and correlation analysis of the elements, three controlling factors for vertical distribution characteristics of elements were identified, the first factor was the combined effects of terrigenous detritus and endogenous carbonate, the second controlling factor was the granularity effects of the lake sediment, the third controlling factor was the input from human activities. A first stage was from the 1870s to the 1950s, Bosten Lake was in a natural state, the deposition rates were relatively low, and the concentrations of Ca, Sr, and Ba were high. The second stage was from the 1960s to the 1990s, triggered by the inflow of agricultural return water, the sedimentation rates were clearly higher than the former stage, the concentrations of Al, Fe, and K increased notably, and Ca, Sr, and Ba decreased. The third stage comprised the period since the 2000s, the scope of human activities has been extended. Enrichment factors of Cd, Pb and P of the sediment have increased. The economic development in the basin led to an increase in pollution of the lake. Human impacts on the environmental change were embodied in the enrichment of Cd, Pb, and P, and the clear decline of biogenic Ca. Sediment geochemistry has faithfully recorded the impacts of human activities on the environmental changes of Bosten Lakes

Human and natural impacts on the water resources in the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia

Water resources are increasingly under stress in Central Asia because downstream countries are highly dependent on upstream countries. Water is essential for irrigation and is becoming scarcer due to climate change and human activities. Based on 20 hydrological stations, this study firstly analyzed the annual and seasonal spatial-temporal changes of the river discharges, precipitation, and temperature in the Syr Darya River Basin and then the possible relationships between these factors were detected. Finally, the potential reasons for the river discharge variations have been discussed. The results show that the river discharges in the upper stream of the basin had significantly risen from 1930 to 2006, mainly due to the increase in temperature (approximately 0.3 degrees C per decade), which accelerated the melting of glaciers, while it decreased in the middle and lower regions due to the rising irrigation. In the middle of the basin, the expansion of the construction land (128.83 km(2)/year) and agricultural land (66.68 km(2)/year) from 1992 to 2015 has significantly augmented the water consumption. The operations of reservoirs and irrigation canals significantly intercepted the river discharge from the upper streams, causing a sharp decline in the river discharges in the middle and lower reaches of the Syr Darya River in 1973. The outcomes obtained from this study allowed us to understand the changes in the river discharges and provided essential information for effective water resource management in the Syr Darya River Basin

Description and attribution analysis of the 2017 spring anomalous high temperature causing floods in Kazakhstan

It is speculated that floods in many areas of the world have become more severe with global warming. This study describes the 2017 spring floods in Kazakhstan, which, with about six people dead or missing, prompted the government to call for more than 7,000 people to leave their homes. Then, based on the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1, and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations, the seasonal trends of temperature were calculated using the linear least-squares regression and the Mann–Kendall trend test. The correlation between the surface air temperature and atmospheric circulation was explored, and the attributable risk of the 2017 spring floods was evaluated using the conventional fraction of the attributable risk (FAR) method. The results indicate that the north plains of Kazakhstan had a higher (March–April) mean temperature anomaly compared to the south plains, up to 3°C, relative to the 1901-2017 average temperature. This was the primary cause of flooding in Kazakhstan. March and April were the other months with a higher increasing trend in temperature from 1901 to 2017 compared with other months. In addition, a positive anomaly of the geopotential height and air temperature for the March–April 2017 period (based on the reference period 1961-1990) was the reason for a warmer abnormal temperature in the northwest region of Kazakhstan. Finally, the FAR value was approximately equal to 1, which supported the claim of a strong anthropogenic influence on the risk of the 2017 March–April floods in Kazakhstan. The results presented provide essential information for a comprehensive understanding of the 2017 spring floods in Kazakhstan and will help government officials identify flooding situations and mitigate damage in future

Spatial Distribution and Ecological Risks of the Potentially-Toxic Elements in the Surface Sediments of Lake Bosten, China

Aiming at the pollution and ecological hazards of the lake sediments of Bosten Lake, once China’s largest inland lake, the spatial distribution and influencing factors of the potentially-toxic elements in its surface sediments were studied with the methods of spatial autocorrelation, two-way cluster analysis, and redundancy analysis. Finally, based on the background value of potentially-toxic elements extracted from a sediment core, a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of these potentially-toxic elements was conducted with the potential-ecological-risk index and the pollution-load index. With data on the grain size, bulk-rock composition, and organic matter content, this comprehensive analysis suggested that with the enrichment of authigenic carbonate minerals, the content of potentially-toxic elements exhibited distinctive characteristics representative of arid regions with lower values than those in humid region. All potentially-toxic elements revealed a significant spatial autocorrelation, and high-value areas mainly occurred in the middle and southwest. The content of potentially-toxic elements is related to Al2O3, K2O, Fe2O3, TiO2, MgO, and MnO, and the storage medium of potentially-toxic elements mainly consists of small particles with a grain size <16 μm. The pollution load index (PLI) for the whole lake due to the potentially-toxic elements was 1.31, and the surface area with a PLI higher than 1 and a moderate pollution level accounted for 87.2% of the total lake area. The research conclusions have an important scientific value for future lake ecological quality assessment and lake environment governance

Potentially Toxic Elements in Oasis Agricultural Soils Caused by High-Intensity Exploitation in the Piedmont Zone of the Tianshan Mountains, China

Considering the pollution of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in the soils of China, the present study analyzed the current state and influencing factors of PTEs in oasis soils using the model of absolute principal component score–multiple linear regression in the piedmont zone of the Tianshan Mountains. The possible non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks of PTEs at current concentrations were also explored using a human-health risk-assessment model. The results suggested that the extent to which potentially toxic elements in the soils of different geographical units in the study area is affected by human activities varies considerably. The PTEs Cd and As in the soils of the Yili River Watershed were the most strongly influenced by human activities, reaching levels of 40% and 59%, respectively. However, in the Bortala River Watershed, Cu, Cd, and As were the most strongly influenced by human activities, reaching levels of 33%, 64%, and 76%, respectively. Geographical units with a high degree of economic development (e.g., the Yili River Watershed) had, in contrast, low levels of PTE pollution caused by human activities, which may be related to the regional economic development structure. The human health risk assessment showed that the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks of PTEs are currently below the threshold. However, increasing the arsenic content to 1.78 times the current level in the Bortala River Watershed would lead to carcinogenic risk. For the Yili River Watershed, a 3.33-fold increase in the arsenic content above its current level would lead to a carcinogenic risk. This risk should be addressed, and targeted environmental-protection measures should be formulated. The present research results will provide important decision support for regional environmental protection

Grain Size Characteristics of Sediments Found in Typical Landscapes in the Playa of Ebinur Lake, Arid Central Asia

A playa usually refers to a salt desert landscape mainly composed of loose and fine lacustrine sediments. Severe wind erosion on a playa causes the playa to become a source of dust and salt dust and poses a threat to vast areas downwind. Currently, little is known about the impact of wind erosion on the particle size distribution of sediments in different landscapes in the playa. In the present study, six dominant different landscapes in a natural state with the same sedimentary environment in the playa of Ebinur Lake were selected to provide insights into the different characteristics of particle size distribution under the effect of long-term wind erosion. The results reveal that the grain-size composition clearly differed among different landscapes. All samples had a common dominant size group consisting of very fine sand and sand. The very fine sand and sand content of Haloxylon ammodendron desert zone (LS5) was the lowest, while the clay and silt content was the highest at both depths among the six landscapes. The lowest clay and silt fraction and highest sand fraction appeared in the herbal desert zone (LS3) at both depths. Almost all of the sediment samples were of a bimodal distribution mode, with significant differences. The cumulative curve showed a similar S-shape, while the probability cumulative curve showed an inverted S-shape with three subpopulations of granularity characteristics. The smallest mean particle diameter appeared in LS5. The majority of the sediments were moderately to poorly sorted. The mean particle size of the sediments from the six landscapes was significantly different (p < 0.05), while no significant difference was observed among the other three parameters. Generally, it can be inferred that LS5 can reduce wind speed effectively, probably due to the smaller leaves and dense branches of Haloxylon ammodendron, which results in a high level of coverage. The results of the present study will have some implications for the grain size characteristics for changes in intensity in regional wind erosion environment and will also have some basis for wind erosion prevention and control in the playa of Ebinur Lake

The occurrence, sources and spatial characteristics of soil salt and assessment of soil salinization risk in Yanqi basin, northwest China.

In order to evaluate the soil salinization risk of the oases in arid land of northwest China, we chose a typical oasis-the Yanqi basin as the research area. Then, we collected soil samples from the area and made comprehensive assessment for soil salinization risk in this area. The result showed that: (1) In all soil samples, high variation was found for the amount of Ca2+ and K+, while the other soil salt properties had moderate levels of variation. (2) The land use types and the soil parent material had a significant influence on the amount of salt ions within the soil. (3) Principle component (PC) analysis determined that all the salt ion values, potential of hydrogen (pHs) and ECs fell into four PCs. Among them, PC1 (C1-, Na+, SO4(2-), EC, and pH) and PC2 (Ca2+, K+, Mg2+and total amount of salts) are considered to be mainly influenced by artificial sources, while PC3 and PC4 (CO3(-) and HCO3(2-)) are mainly influenced by natural sources. (4) From a geo-statistical point of view, it was ascertained that the pH and soil salt ions, such as Ca2+, Mg2+ and HCO3(-), had a strong spatial dependency. Meanwhile, Na+ and Cl- had only a weak spatial dependency in the soil. (5) Soil salinization indicators suggested that the entire area had a low risk of soil salinization, where the risk was mainly due to anthropogenic activities and climate variation. This study can be considered an early warning of soil salinization and alkalization in the Yanqi basin. It can also provide a reference for environmental protection policies and rational utilization of land resources in the arid region of Xinjiang, northwest China, as well as for other oases of arid regions in the world

Trend Analysis of Annual and Seasonal River Runoff by Using Innovative Trend Analysis with Significant Test

This study investigated the temporal patterns of annual and seasonal river runoff data at 13 hydrological stations in the Lake Issyk-Kul basin, Central Asia. The temporal trends were analyzed using the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method with significance testing. The ITA method results were compared with the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test at a 95% confidence level. The comparison results revealed that the ITA method could effectively identify the trends detected by the MK trend test. Specifically, the MK test found that the time series percentage decreased from 46.15% in the north to 25.64% in the south, while the ITA method revealed a similar rate of decrease, from 39.2% to 29.4%. According to the temporal distribution of the MK test, significantly increasing (decreasing) trends were observed in 5 (0), 6 (2), 4 (3), 8 (0), and 8 (1) time series in annual, spring, summer, autumn, and winter river runoff data. At the same time, the ITA method detected significant trends in 7 (1), 9 (3), 6(3), 9 (3), and 8 (2) time series in the study area. As for the ITA method, the “peak” values of 24 time series (26.97%) exhibited increasing patterns, 25 time series (28.09%) displayed increasing patterns for “low” values, and 40 time series (44.94%) showed increasing patterns for “medium” values. According to the “low”, “medium”, and “peak” values, five time series (33.33%), seven time series (46.67%), and three time series (20%) manifested decreasing trends, respectively. These results detailed the patterns of annual and seasonal river runoff data series by evaluating “low”, “medium”, and “peak” values

Long-term variations (2001-2016) of satellite-based PM2.5 concentrations and its determinants in Xinjiang, northwest of China

Based on the long-term series of satellite-retrieved PM2.5 concentrations, this study explored the spatiotemporal variation and aggregation characteristics of PM2.5 concentrations in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2016 by using standard deviational ellipse analysis and spatial autocorrelation statistics method. The result showed that the annual average PM2.5 concentrations was high in the north slope of Tianshan mountain and the western Tarim desert where High-High clusters mainly distribute. Furthermore, PM2.5 concentrations in the north slope of Tianshan mountain increased significantly from 2001 to 2016. Based on the result of GeoDetector model, population density was the most dominant factor of PM2.5 concentrations (q=0.55). With the rapid urbanization and expansion of oasis, the driving force of population density on PM2.5 concentrations are gradually decreasing. However, DEM, NSL, LCT and NDVI show the increased trend on the driving forces of PM2.5 concentrations