Informing policy via dynamic models: Cholera in Haiti

Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission dynamics. Such decisions can be posed as statistical questions about scientifically motivated dynamic models. Thus, we encounter the methodological task of building credible, data-informed decisions based on stochastic, partially observed, nonlinear dynamic models. This necessitates addressing the tradeoff between biological fidelity and model simplicity, and the reality of misspecification for models at all levels of complexity. As a case study, we consider the 2010-2019 cholera epidemic in Haiti. We study three dynamic models developed by expert teams to advise on vaccination policies. We assess previous methods used for fitting and evaluating these models, and we develop data analysis strategies leading to improved statistical fit. Specifically, we present approaches to diagnosis of model misspecification, development of alternative models, and computational improvements in optimization, in the context of likelihood-based inference on nonlinear dynamic systems. Our workflow is reproducible and extendable, facilitating future investigations of this disease system.Comment: To be submitted to the Annals of Applied Statistic

Genetic regulatory variation in populations informs transcriptome analysis in rare disease

Transcriptome data can facilitate the interpretation of the effects of rare genetic variants. Here, we introduce ANEVA (analysis of expression variation) to quantify genetic variation in gene dosage from allelic expression (AE) data in a population. Application of ANEVA to the Genotype-Tissues Expression (GTEx) data showed that this variance estimate is robust and correlated with selective constraint in a gene. Using these variance estimates in a dosage outlier test (ANEVA-DOT) applied to AE data from 70 Mendelian muscular disease patients showed accuracy in detecting genes with pathogenic variants in previously resolved cases and led to one confirmed and several potential new diagnoses. Using our reference estimates from GTEx data, ANEVA-DOT can be incorporated in rare disease diagnostic pipelines to use RNA-sequencing data more effectively

Exploiting the GTEx resources to decipher the mechanisms at GWAS loci.

The resources generated by the GTEx consortium offer unprecedented opportunities to advance our understanding of the biology of human diseases. Here, we present an in-depth examination of the phenotypic consequences of transcriptome regulation and a blueprint for the functional interpretation of genome-wide association study-discovered loci. Across a broad set of complex traits and diseases, we demonstrate widespread dose-dependent effects of RNA expression and splicing. We develop a data-driven framework to benchmark methods that prioritize causal genes and find no single approach outperforms the combination of multiple approaches. Using colocalization and association approaches that take into account the observed allelic heterogeneity of gene expression, we propose potential target genes for 47% (2519 out of 5385) of the GWAS loci examined