Semiparametric GEE analysis in partially linear single-index models for longitudinal data

In this article, we study a partially linear single-index model for longitudinal data under a general framework which includes both the sparse and dense longitudinal data cases. A semiparametric estimation method based on a combination of the local linear smoothing and generalized estimation equations (GEE) is introduced to estimate the two parameter vectors as well as the unknown link function. Under some mild conditions, we derive the asymptotic properties of the proposed parametric and nonparametric estimators in different scenarios, from which we find that the convergence rates and asymptotic variances of the proposed estimators for sparse longitudinal data would be substantially different from those for dense longitudinal data. We also discuss the estimation of the covariance (or weight) matrices involved in the semiparametric GEE method. Furthermore, we provide some numerical studies including Monte Carlo simulation and an empirical application to illustrate our methodology and theory.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1320 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Studies on Dynamics of Financial Markets and Reacting Flows

One of the central problems in financial markets analysis is to understand the nature of the underlying stochastic dynamics. Several intraday behaviors are analyzed to study trading day ensemble averages of both high frequency foreign exchange and stock markets data. These empirical results indicate that the underlying stochastic processes have nonstationary increments. The three most liquid foreign exchange markets and five most actively traded stocks each contains several time intervals during the day where the mean square fluctuation and variance of increments can be fit by power law scaling in time. The fluctuations in return within these intervals follow asymptotic bi-exponential distributions. Based on these empirical results, an intraday stochastic model with linear variable diffusion coefficient is proposed to approximate the real dynamics of financial markets to the lowest order, and to test the effects of time averaging techniques typically used for financial time series analysis. The proposed model replicates major statistical characteristics of empirical financial time series and only ensemble averaging techniques deduce the underlying dynamics correctly. The proposed model also provides new insight into the modeling of financial markets' dynamics in microscopic time scales. Also discussed are analytical and computational studies of reacting flows. Many dynamical features of the flows can be inferred from modal decompositions and coupling between modes. Both proper orthogonal (POD) and dynamic mode (DMD) decompositions are conducted on high-frequency, high-resolution empirical data and their results and strengths are compared and contrasted. In POD the contribution of each mode to the flow is quantified using the latency only, whereas each DMD mode can be associated a latency as well as a unique complex growth rate. By comparing DMD spectra from multiple nominally identical experiments, it is possible to identify "reproducible" modes in a flow. A similar differentiation cannot be made using POD. Time-dependent coefficients of DMD modes are complex. Even in noisy experimental data, it is found that the phase of these coefficients (but not their magnitude) exhibits repeatable dynamics. Hence it is suggested that dynamical characterizations of complex flows are best analyzed through the phase dynamics of reproducible DMD modes.Physics, Department o

Quantum Radiation Properties of Dirac Particles in General Nonstationary Black Holes

Quantum radiation properties of Dirac particles in general nonstationary black holes in the general case are investigated by both using the method of generalized tortoise coordinate transformation and considering simultaneously the asymptotic behaviors of the first-order and second-order forms of Dirac equation near the event horizon. It is generally shown that the temperature and the shape of the event horizon of this kind of black holes depend on both the time and different angles. Further, we give a general expression of the new extra coupling effect in thermal radiation spectrum of Dirac particles which is absent from the thermal radiation spectrum of scalar particles. Also, we reveal a relationship that is ignored before between thermal radiation and nonthermal radiation in the case of scalar particles, which is that the chemical potential in thermal radiation spectrum is equal to the highest energy of the negative energy state of scalar particles in nonthermal radiation for general nonstationary black holes

Information Geometry Theoretic Measures for Characterizing Neural Information Processing from Simulated EEG Signals

In this work, we explore information geometry theoretic measures for characterizing neural information processing from EEG signals simulated by stochastic nonlinear coupled oscillator models for both healthy subjects and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients with both eyes-closed and eyes-open conditions. In particular, we employ information rates to quantify the time evolution of probability density functions of simulated EEG signals, and employ causal information rates to quantify one signal’s instantaneous influence on another signal’s information rate. These two measures help us find significant and interesting distinctions between healthy subjects and AD patients when they open or close their eyes. These distinctions may be further related to differences in neural information processing activities of the corresponding brain regions, and to differences in connectivities among these brain regions. Our results show that information rate and causal information rate are superior to their more traditional or established information-theoretic counterparts, i.e., differential entropy and transfer entropy, respectively. Since these novel, information geometry theoretic measures can be applied to experimental EEG signals in a model-free manner, and they are capable of quantifying non-stationary time-varying effects, nonlinearity, and non-Gaussian stochasticity presented in real-world EEG signals, we believe that they can form an important and powerful tool-set for both understanding neural information processing in the brain and the diagnosis of neurological disorders, such as Alzheimer’s disease as presented in this work