The costs of uncoordinated infrastructure management in multi-reservoir river basins

Though there are surprisingly few estimates of the economic benefits of coordinated infrastructure development and operations in international river basins, there is a widespread belief that improved cooperation is beneficial for managing water scarcity and variability. Hydro-economic optimization models are commonly-used for identifying efficient allocation of water across time and space, but such models typically assume full coordination. In the real world, investment and operational decisions for specific projects are often made without full consideration of potential downstream impacts. This paper describes a tractable methodology for evaluating the economic benefits of infrastructure coordination. We demonstrate its application over a range of water availability scenarios in a catchment of the Mekong located in Lao PDR, the Nam Ngum River Basin. Results from this basin suggest that coordination improves system net benefits from irrigation and hydropower by approximately 3–12% (or US$12-53 million/yr) assuming moderate levels of flood control, and that the magnitude of coordination benefits generally increases with the level of water availability and with inflow variability. Similar analyses would be useful for developing a systematic understanding of the factors that increase the costs of non-cooperation in river basin systems worldwide, and would likely help to improve targeting of efforts to stimulate complicated negotiations over water resources

Planning water resources development in an uncertain climate future: a hydro-economic simulation framework applied to the case of the Blue Nile

This research developed an integrated framework for conducting economic assessment of water resources infrastructures in the context of climatic and development uncertainty. Two levels of simulation make up the framework: the hydrological, based around the river basin routing model; and the economic, which utilizes Monte Carlo simulation methods to simulate the net present value of projects given variation in economic model parameters. A number of linkages between climate and the performance of the system were included: changes in runoff, reservoir evaporation rates and crop water requirements, as well as economic changes in the value of water, energy and carbon offsets. The framework was made operational for a real-world planning application in the Nile Basin. It was first used to study in detail the effect of the climate linkages on the economics of a single proposed hydropower dam on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. An illustrative climate scenario, drawn from the set of emissions futures considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was used for this evaluation. Several climate change linkages were found to have important effects on the system and the economics of the project: climate-perturbed runoff, increases in crop water requirements due to higher temperatures, and changes in the value of energy and carbon offsets. The research was then extended to evaluate the costs and benefits of constructing alternative configurations of Blue Nile hydropower dams, for four possible water withdrawal conditions and a range of climate scenarios. The effects of project design and operational features were also evaluated. The analysis showed that: 1) many projects provide positive net benefits across a range of conditions; 2) increased system water withdrawals have a significant negative impact on the economics of Blue Nile dams; and 3) results are most sensitive to assumptions about discounting and future inflows. Also, the infrastructure with the best economic outcomes is dependent on the unknown future climate of and water use in the system. An approach was therefore developed for comparing the relative performance of alternatives, and comparative metrics were used to identify alternatives with relatively low risks and high upside across a range of plausible future situations

Estimating the Private Benefits of Vaccination Against Cholera in Beira, Mozambique: A Travel Cost Approach

The paper reports the results of a study that estimates households' private demand for cholera vaccines based on their travel behavior. We take advantage of an unusual natural experiment. In January 2004, more than 41,000 residents in Beira, Mozambique received two doses of the new-generation oral recombinant toxin B subunit killed whole-cell rBS-WC cholera vaccine during the first vaccination trial to test its effectiveness in an endemic cholera zone of Africa. The trial was designed to target about 22,000 residents in the Esturro neighborhood; nine outposts were established there to distribute vaccines free of charge. Due to the high demand for the vaccines, the trial was modified so that citizens from outside Esturro could also be vaccinated. About 30,000 outsiders came, resulting in long queues and an average waiting time of about 85 minutes per dose. We obtained information from the complete database of vaccinated individuals collected at the Esturro vaccination outposts, as well as household information collected from a sample of city-wide, in-person interviews conducted in the summer of 2005, to estimate travel cost models of the revealed demand for cholera vaccines among households informed of the trial. We estimated standard and zero-inflated household count models of vaccine demand and dichotomous choice models for the head of the household. To our knowledge, this is the first application of the travel cost method to estimate vaccine demand. Our travel cost analysis showed that distance traveled and time spent in acquiring vaccines were critical determinants of coverage levels in the population. The quantity of vaccines obtained by households decreased as travel cost — in time and transport expenses — rose. Our best estimates of per capita willingness to pay for cholera vaccination are about US$1. These travel cost estimates are sensitive to the assumed value of time spent acquiring vaccines, and are somewhat lower than those obtained using the contingent valuation method (about US$1.40 per capita).Master of Science in Environmental Engineerin

Preferences and the effectiveness of behavior-change interventions: Evidence from adoption of improved cookstoves in India

Preference heterogeneity can influence behavior in economically significant ways, thereby influencing the effectiveness of environmental policies or interventions. We test this hypothesis in the context of efficient cooking technology in India. We use stated preference methods to first characterize household tastes for various features of a more efficient cooking technology. We then relate these typically unobserved preferences to households' adoption decisions during an experiment that allowed them to choose between two alternatives with different features. Stated preferences help predict actual adoption: households initially classified as uninterested are less likely to purchase and use any new technology, while relative distaste for pollution is linked to selection of a cleaner technology. Because of this influence on adoption behaviors, preference heterogeneity has important implications for how environmental policies can impact various health and development outcomes

Nephrotoxic Contaminants in Drinking Water and Urine, and Chronic Kidney Disease in Rural Sri Lanka

Chronic kidney disease of unknown (“u”) cause (CKDu) is a growing public health concern in Sri Lanka. Prior research has hypothesized a link with drinking water quality, but rigorous studies are lacking. This study assesses the relationship between nephrotoxic elements (namely arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and uranium (U)) in drinking water, and urine samples collected from individuals with and/or without CKDu in endemic areas, and from individuals without CKDu in nonendemic areas. All water samples—from a variety of source types (i.e., shallow and deep wells, springs, piped, and surface water)—contained extremely low concentrations of nephrotoxic elements, and all were well below drinking water guideline values. Concentrations in individual urine samples were higher than, and uncorrelated with, those measured in drinking water, suggesting potential exposure from other sources. Mean urinary concentrations of these elements for individuals with clinically diagnosed CKDu were consistently lower than individuals without CKDu both in endemic and nonendemic areas. This likely stems from the inability of the kidney to excrete these toxic elements via urine in CKDu patients. Urinary concentrations of individuals were also found to be within the range of reference values measured in urine of healthy unexposed individuals from international biomonitoring studies, though these reference levels may not be safe for the Sri Lankan population. The results suggest that CKDu cannot be clearly linked with the presence of these contaminants in drinking water. There remains a need to investigate potential interactions of low doses of these elements (particularly Cd and As) with other risk factors that appear linked to CKDu prior to developing public health strategies to address this illness

Nephrotoxic Contaminants in Drinking Water and Urine, and Chronic Kidney Disease in Rural Sri Lanka

Chronic kidney disease of unknown (“u”) cause (CKDu) is a growing public health concern in Sri Lanka. Prior research has hypothesized a link with drinking water quality, but rigorous studies are lacking. This study assesses the relationship between nephrotoxic elements (namely arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and uranium (U)) in drinking water, and urine samples collected from individuals with and/or without CKDu in endemic areas, and from individuals without CKDu in nonendemic areas. All water samples—from a variety of source types (i.e., shallow and deep wells, springs, piped, and surface water)—contained extremely low concentrations of nephrotoxic elements, and all were well below drinking water guideline values. Concentrations in individual urine samples were higher than, and uncorrelated with, those measured in drinking water, suggesting potential exposure from other sources. Mean urinary concentrations of these elements for individuals with clinically diagnosed CKDu were consistently lower than individuals without CKDu both in endemic and nonendemic areas. This likely stems from the inability of the kidney to excrete these toxic elements via urine in CKDu patients. Urinary concentrations of individuals were also found to be within the range of reference values measured in urine of healthy unexposed individuals from international biomonitoring studies, though these reference levels may not be safe for the Sri Lankan population. The results suggest that CKDu cannot be clearly linked with the presence of these contaminants in drinking water. There remains a need to investigate potential interactions of low doses of these elements (particularly Cd and As) with other risk factors that appear linked to CKDu prior to developing public health strategies to address this illness

Cost-Effectiveness of New-Generation Oral Cholera Vaccines: A Multisite Analysis

Objectives: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a low-cost cholera vaccine licensed and used in Vietnam, using recently collected data from four developing countries where cholera is endemic. Our analysis incorporated new findings on vaccine herd protective effects. Methods: Using data from Matlab, Bangladesh, Kolkata, India, North Jakarta, Indonesia, and Beira, Mozambique, we calculated the net public cost per disability-adjusted life year avoided for three immunization strategies: 1) school-based vaccination of children 5 to 14 years of age; 2) school-based vaccination of school children plus use of the schools to vaccinate children aged 1 to 4 years; and 3) community-based vaccination of persons aged 1 year and older. Results: We determined cost-effectiveness when vaccine herd protection was or was not considered, and compared this with commonly accepted cutoffs of gross domestic product (GDP) per person to classify interventions as cost-effective or very-cost effective. Without including herd protective effects, deployment of this vaccine would be cost-effective only in school-based programs in Kolkata and Beira. In contrast, after considering vaccine herd protection, all three programs were judged very cost-effective in Kolkata and Beira. Because these cost-effectiveness calculations include herd protection, the results are dependent on assumed vaccination coverage rates. Conclusions: Ignoring the indirect effects of cholera vaccination has led to underestimation of the cost-effectiveness of vaccination programs with oral cholera vaccines. Once these effects are included, use of the oral killed whole cell vaccine in programs to control endemic cholera meets the per capita GDP criterion in several developing country settings

Water Quality Threats, Perceptions of Climate Change and Behavioral Responses among Farmers in the Ethiopian Rift Valley

This work aims to assess water quality for irrigated agriculture, alongside perceptions and adaptations of farmers to climate change in the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER). Climate change is expected to cause a rise in temperature and variability in rainfall in the region, reducing surface water availability and raising dependence on groundwater. The study data come from surveys with 147 farmers living in the Ziway–Shala basin and water quality assessments of 162 samples from groundwater wells and surface water. Most groundwater samples were found to be unsuitable for long term agricultural use due to their high salinity and sodium adsorption ratio, which has implications for soil permeability, as well as elevated bicarbonate, boron and residual sodium carbonate concentrations. The survey data indicate that water sufficiency is a major concern for farmers that leads to frequent crop failures, especially due to erratic and insufficient rainfall. An important adaptation mechanism for farmers is the use of improved crop varieties, but major barriers to adaptation include a lack of access to irrigation water, credit or savings, appropriate seeds, and knowledge or information on weather and climate conditions. Local (development) agents are identified as vital to enhancing farmers’ knowledge of risks and solutions, and extension programs must therefore continue to promote resilience and adaptation in the area. Unfortunately, much of the MER groundwater that could be used to cope with declining viability of rainfed agriculture and surface water availability, is poor in quality. The use of saline groundwater could jeopardize the agricultural sector, and most notably commercial horticulture and floriculture activities. This study highlights the complex nexus of water quality and sufficiency challenges facing the agriculture sector in the region, and should help decision-makers to design feasible strategies for enhancing adaptation and food security

Groundwater Quality and Its Health Impact: An Assessment of Dental Fluorosis in Rural Inhabitants of the Main Ethiopian Rift

This study aims to assess the link between fluoride content in groundwater and its impact on dental health in rural communities of the Ethiopian Rift. A total of 148 water samples were collected from two drainage basins within the Main Ethiopian Rift (MER). In the Ziway-Shala basin in particular, wells had high fluoride levels (mean: 9.4 ± 10.5 mg/L; range: 1.1 to 68 mg/L), with 48 of 50 exceeding the WHO drinking water guideline limit of 1.5 mg/L. Total average daily intake of fluoride from drinking groundwater (calculated per weight unit) was also found to be six times higher than the No-Observed-Adverse-Effects-Level (NOAEL) value of 0.06 mg/kg/day. The highest fluoride levels were found in highly alkaline (pH of 7 to 8.9) groundwater characterized by high salinity; high concentrations of sodium (Na+), bicarbonate (HCO3−), and silica (SiO2); and low concentrations of calcium (Ca2+). A progressive Ca2+ decrease along the groundwater flow path is associated with an increase of fluoride in the groundwater. The groundwater quality problem is also coupled with the presence of other toxic elements, such as arsenic (As) and uranium (U). The health impact of fluoride was evaluated based on clinical examination of dental fluorosis (DF) among local residents using the Thylstrup and Fejerskov index (TFI). In total, 200 rural inhabitants between the ages of 7 and 40 years old using water from 12 wells of fluoride range of 7.8–18 mg/L were examined. Signs of DF (TF score of ≥ 1) were observed in all individuals. Most of the teeth (52%) recorded TF scores of 5 and 6, followed by TF scores of 3 and 4 (30%), and 8.4% had TF scores of 7 or higher. Sixty percent of the teeth exhibited loss of the outermost enamel. Within the range of fluoride contents, we did not find any correlation between fluoride content and DF. Finally, preliminary data suggest that milk intake has contributed to reducing the severity of DF. The study highlights the apparent positive role of milk on DF and emphasizes the importance of nutrition in management efforts to mitigate DF in the MER and other parts of the world