The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models

We compare a number of methods that have been proposed in the literature for obtaining h-step ahead minimum mean square error forecasts for SETAR models. These forecasts are compared to those from an AR model. The comparison of forecasting methods is made using Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte Carlo method of calculating SETAR forecasts is generally at least as good as that of the other methods we consider. An exception is when the disturbances in the SETAR model come from a highly asymmetric distribution, when a Bootstrap method is to be preferred. An empirical application calculates multi-period forecasts from a SETAR model of US GNP using a number of the forecasting methods. We find that whether there are improvements in forecast performance relative to a linear AR model depends on the historical epoch we select, and whether forecasts are evaluated conditional on the regime the process was in at the time the forecast was made

Evaluation of ADAM-12 as a diagnostic biomarker of ectopic pregnancy in women with a pregnancy of unknown location

Ectopic pregnancy (EP) remains the most life-threatening acute condition in modern gynaecology. It remains difficult to diagnose early and accurately. Women often present at emergency departments in early pregnancy with a 'pregnancy of unknown location' (PUL) and diagnosis/exclusion of EP is challenging due to a lack of reliable biomarkers. Recent studies suggest that serum levels of a disintegrin and metalloprotease protein-12 (ADAM-12) can be used differentiate EP from viable intrauterine pregnancy (VIUP). Here we describe a prospective study evaluating the performance of ADAM-12 in differentiating EP from the full spectrum of alternative PUL outcomes in an independent patient cohort.Sera were collected from 120 patients at their first clinical presentation with a PUL and assayed for ADAM-12 by ELISA. Patients were categorized according to final pregnancy outcomes. Serum ADAM-12 concentrations were increased in women with histologically-confirmed EP (median 442 pg/mL; 25%-75% percentile 232-783 pg/mL) compared to women with VIUP (256 pg/mL; 168-442 pg/mL) or miscarriage (192 pg/mL; 133-476 pg/mL). Serum ADAM-12 did not differentiate histologically-confirmed EP from spontaneously resolving PUL (srPUL) (416 pg/mL; 154-608 pg/mL). The diagnostic potential of ADAM-12 was only significant when 'ambiguous' PUL outcomes were excluded from the analysis (AROC = 0.6633; P = 0.03901).When measured in isolation, ADAM-12 levels had limited value as a diagnostic biomarker for EP in our patient cohort. The development of a reliable serum biomarker-based test for EP remains an ongoing challenge

Comparative Survival and Economic Benefits of Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation and Dialysis in People with Varying Ages and Co-Morbidities

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Deceased donor kidneys for transplantation are in most countries allocated preferentially to recipients who have limited co-morbidities. Little is known about the incremental health and economic gain from transplanting those with co-morbidities compared to remaining on dialysis. The aim of our study is to estimate the average and incremental survival benefits and health care costs of listing and transplantation compared to dialysis among individuals with varying co-morbidities.</p> <h3>Methods</h3><p>A probabilistic Markov model was constructed, using current outcomes for patients with defined co-morbidities treated with either dialysis or transplantation, to compare the health and economic benefits of listing and transplantation with dialysis.</p> <h3>Findings</h3><p>Using the current waiting time for deceased donor transplantation, transplanting a potential recipient, with or without co-morbidities achieves survival gains of between 6 months and more than three life years compared to remaining on dialysis, with an average incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than $50,000/LYS, even among those with advanced age. Age at listing and the waiting time for transplantation are the most influential variables within the model. If there were an unlimited supply of organs and no waiting time, transplanting the younger and healthier individuals saves the most number of life years and is cost-saving, whereas transplanting the middle-age to older patients still achieves substantial incremental gains in life expectancy compared to being on dialysis.</p> <h3>Conclusions</h3><p>Our modelled analyses suggest transplanting the younger and healthier individuals with end-stage kidney disease maximises survival gains and saves money. Listing and transplanting those with considerable co-morbidities is also cost-effective and achieves substantial survival gains compared with the dialysis alternative. Preferentially excluding the older and sicker individuals cannot be justified on utilitarian grounds.</p> </div

HbA1c variability and cardiovascular events in patients with prostate cancer receiving androgen deprivation therapy

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) worsens glycaemic control and cardiovascular outcomes. The prognostic value of visit-to-visit HbA1c variability (VVHV) has been unexplored in prostate cancer (PCa) patients receiving ADT. To explore the effect of ADT on VVHV and the cardiovascular prognostic value of VVHV. PCa patients receiving ADT in Hong Kong between January 1, 1993 and March 31, 2021 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Those with fewer than three HbA1c results available within 3 yr after ADT initiation, <6 mo of ADT, missing baseline HbA1c, prior diagnosis of any component of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), and MACEs occurring within 3 yr were excluded. Patients were followed up until September 31, 2021. The outcome was MACEs (composite of heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular mortality). VVHV was calculated from HbA1c levels within 3 yr after and, separately where available, before ADT initiation using coefficient of variation (CV; standard deviation [SD] divided by mean) and average real variability (ARV; average difference between consecutive measurements). Altogether, 1065 patients were analysed (median age 74.4 yr old [interquartile range 68.3-79.5 yr]). In 709 patients with VVHV available before and after ADT initiation, VVHV increased after ADT initiation (  < 0.001), with 473 (66.2%) and 474 (66.9%) having increased CV and ARV, respectively. Over a median follow-up of 4.3 yr (2.8-6.7 yr), higher VVHV was associated with a higher risk of MACEs (adjusted hazard ratio [per SD] for CV 1.21 [95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.43],  = 0.029; ARV 1.25 [1.06, 1.48],  = 0.008). Limitations included residual confounding and selection bias. In PCa patients receiving ADT, VVHV increased after ADT initiation. Higher VVHV was associated with an increased risk of MACEs. In prostate cancer patients receiving androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), glycaemic control is less stable after initiating ADT, which was associated with an increased cardiovascular risk. [Abstract copyright: © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Association of Urology.

Status of mandatory treatment of mentally ill offenders without criminal responsibility in China: Information from 5,262 mandatory treatment judgments

BackgroundTo avoid public health risks, all governments ensure monitoring and treatment of mentally ill persons if they offend and assess their level of criminal responsibility. The Criminal Procedure Law of the People’s Republic of China (2013) instituted special procedures. However, there are few articles in English which explain the implementation of mandatory treatment procedures in China.MethodsWe collected 5,262 qualified documents from 2013 to 2021 from the China Judgments Documents Online. We analyzed social demographic characteristics, trial-related information as well as the mandatory treatment-related content, to investigate the mandatory treatment of China’s mentally ill offenders without criminal responsibility, from 2013 to 2021. Simple descriptive statistics and chi-square tests were used to compare differences among several types of documents.ResultsThere was an overall change trend of the number of documents: increasing year by year from 2013 to 2019 after the implementation of the new law, but with sharp decrease in 2020 and 2021 during covid-19 pandemic. From 2013 to 2021, a total of 3,854 people had applications made for mandatory treatment, of whom 3,747 (97.2%) were given mandatory treatment, 107 (2.8%) had applications rejected. “Schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders” was the most common diagnosis in both groups and all offenders receiving mandatory treatment (3,747, 100.0%) were considered to have no criminal responsibility. A total of 1,294 patients had applications made for relief of mandatory treatment, of whom 827 (63.9%) were subsequently approved for relief, 467 (36.1%) were rejected. A total of 118 patients had applications for relief two or more times, and 56 (47.5%) were finally relieved.ConclusionOur study presents the Chinese model of a criminal mandatory treatment system to the international community which has been in operation since the implementation of the new law. Legislatory changes and covid-19 pandemic can have effect on the number of mandatory treatment cases. Patients, their close relatives and mandatory treatment institutions have the right to apply for relief from mandatory treatment, but the final decision in China is taken by the court

Maternal Serum Macrophage Inhibitory Cytokine-1 as a Biomarker for Ectopic Pregnancy in Women with a Pregnancy of Unknown Location

Ectopic pregnancy (EP) occurs in 1-2% of pregnancies, but is over-represented as a leading cause of maternal death in early pregnancy. It remains a challenge to diagnose early and accurately. Women often present in early pregnancy with a 'pregnancy of unknown location' (PUL) and the diagnosis and exclusion of EP is difficult due to a lack of reliable biomarkers. A serum biomarker able to clearly distinguish between EP and other pregnancy outcomes would greatly assist clinicians in diagnosing and safely managing PULs. This study evaluates the ability of maternal serum macrophage inhibitory cytokine-1 (MIC-1) levels to differentiate between EP and other pregnancy outcomes in women with a PUL.Sera were collected from 120 women with a PUL at first clinical presentation and assayed for MIC-1 by ELISA. Results were classified according to ultimate pregnancy outcome and the discriminatory ability of MIC-1 to diagnose EP was assessed.Serum MIC-1 levels were lower in women with histologically confirmed (definite) EP (dEP) (median 552 ng/mL; interquartile range (IQR) 414-693 ng/mL) compared to women with definite viable intra-uterine pregnancies (dVIUPs) (722 ng/mL; IQR 412-1122 ng/mL), and higher when compared to women with definite non-viable intra-uterine pregnancies (dNVIUPs) (465 ng/mL; IQR 341-675 ng/mL). MIC-1 levels were significantly higher in women with dEP compared to women whose PULs resolved without medical intervention (srPUL) (401 ng/mL; IQR 315-475 ng/mL) (p<0.003). There were no women with an ectopic pregnancy where serum MIC-1>1000 ng/mL.Serum MIC-1 levels in PUL were not able to categorically diagnose EP, however, MIC-1 could distinguish women with an EP that required medical intervention and those women whose PULs spontaneously resolved. A single serum MIC-1 measurement also excluded EP at levels above 1000 ng/mL. MIC-1 may play a role in the development of a combined assay of biomarkers for the diagnosis of EP

The effect of discrete wavelengths of visible light on the developing murine embryo

Open Access funding enabled and organized by CAUL and its Member Institutions KRD is supported by a Mid-Career Fellowship from the Hospital Research Foundation (C-MCF-58–2019). KD is supported by funding from the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/P030017/1) and the Australian Research Council (FL210100099). CC acknowledges the support of a PhD scholarship jointly from the University of Adelaide and University of Nottingham. This study was funded by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Nanoscale BioPhotonics (CE140100003). PR acknowledges funding through the RMIT Vice-Chancellor’s Research Fellowship and ARC DECRA Fellowship scheme (DE200100279).Purpose A current focus of the IVF field is non-invasive imaging of the embryo to quantify developmental potential. Such approaches use varying wavelengths to gain maximum biological information. The impact of irradiating the developing embryo with discrete wavelengths of light is not fully understood. Here, we assess the impact of a range of wavelengths on the developing embryo. Methods Murine preimplantation embryos were exposed daily to wavelengths within the blue, green, yellow, and red spectral bands and compared to an unexposed control group. Development to blastocyst, DNA damage, and cell number/allocation to blastocyst cell lineages were assessed. For the longer wavelengths (yellow and red), pregnancy/fetal outcomes and the abundance of intracellular lipid were investigated. Results Significantly fewer embryos developed to the blastocyst stage when exposed to the yellow wavelength. Elevated DNA damage was observed within embryos exposed to blue, green, or red wavelengths. There was no effect on blastocyst cell number/lineage allocation for all wavelengths except red, where there was a significant decrease in total cell number. Pregnancy rate was significantly reduced when embryos were irradiated with the red wavelength. Weight at weaning was significantly higher when embryos were exposed to yellow or red wavelengths. Lipid abundance was significantly elevated following exposure to the yellow wavelength. Conclusion Our results demonstrate that the impact of light is wavelength-specific, with longer wavelengths also impacting the embryo. We also show that effects are energy-dependent. This data shows that damage is multifaceted and developmental rate alone may not fully reflect the impact of light exposure.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe