Will more of the same achieve malaria elimination? Results from an integrated macroeconomic epidemiological demographic model

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordThe data underlying the model framework are available from the authors on request and selected parameters are also tabulated in the methods paper,22 and from the Malaria Atlas Project http:// www.map.ox.ac.uk/Historic levels of funding have reduced the global burden of malaria in recent years. Questions remain, however, as to whether scaling up interventions, in parallel with economic growth, has made malaria elimination more likely today than previously. The consequences of “trying but failing” to eliminate malaria are also uncertain. Reduced malaria exposure decreases the acquisition of semi-immunity during childhood, a necessary phase of the immunological transition that occurs on the pathway to malaria elimination. During this transitional period, the risk of malaria resurgence increases as proportionately more individuals across all age-groups are less able to manage infections by immune response alone. We developed a robust model that integrates the effects of malaria transmission, demography, and macroeconomics in the context of Plasmodium falciparum malaria within a hyperendemic environment. We analyzed the potential for existing interventions, alongside economic development, to achieve malaria elimination. Simulation results indicate that a 2% increase in future economic growth will increase the US$5.1 billion cumulative economic burden of malaria in Ghana to US$7.2 billion, although increasing regional insecticide-treated net coverage rates by 25% will lower malaria reproduction numbers by just 9%, reduce population-wide morbidity by −0.1%, and reduce prevalence from 54% to 46% by 2034. As scaling up current malaria control tools, combined with economic growth, will be insufficient to interrupt malaria transmission in Ghana, high levels of malaria control should be maintained and investment in research and development should be increased to maintain the gains of the past decade and to minimize the risk of resurgence, as transmission dropsMedical Research Council (MRC

The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this record. We estimate the potential impact of COVID-19 on the United Kingdom economy, including direct disease effects, preventive public actions and associated policies. A sectoral, whole-economy macroeconomic model was linked to a population-wide epidemiological demographic model to assess the potential macroeconomic impact of COVID-19, together with policies to mitigate or suppress the pandemic by means of home quarantine, school closures, social distancing and accompanying business closures. Our simulations indicate that, assuming a clinical attack rate of 48% and a case fatality ratio of 1.5%, COVID-19 alone would impose a direct health-related economic burden of £39.6bn (1.73% of GDP) on the UK economy. Mitigation strategies imposed for 12 weeks reduce case fatalities by 29%, but the total cost to the economy is £308bn (13.5% of GDP); £66bn (2.9% of GDP) of which is attributable to labour lost from working parents during school closures, and £201bn (8.8% of GDP) of which is attributable to business closures. Suppressing the pandemic over a longer period of time may reduce deaths by 95%, but the total cost to the UK economy also increases to £668bn (29.2% of GDP), where £166bn (7.3% of GDP) is attributable to school closures and 502bn (21.9% of GDP) to business closures. Our analyses suggest Covid-19 has the potential to impose unprecedented economic costs on the UK economy, and whilst public actions are necessary to minimise mortality, the duration of school and business closures are key to determining the economic cost. The initial economic support package promised by the UK government may be proportionate to the costs of mitigating Covid-19, but without alternative measures to reduce the scale and duration of school and business closures, the economic support may be insufficient to compensate for longer term suppression of the pandemic which could generate an even greater health impact through major recession.EU Horizon 202

The macro-economic effects of health co-benefits associated with climate change mitigation strategies

The UK government has specific targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction to lower the risk of dangerous climate change. Strategies to reduce GHG emissions are sometimes perceived as expensive and difficult to implement but previous work has demonstrated significant potential health co-benefits from ‘Active Travel and low carbon driving’, ‘Housing Insulation/Ventilation’, and ‘Healthy Diet’ scenarios which may be attractive to policymakers. Here a Computable General Equilibrium model is used to assess the financial effects of such health co-benefits on the wider economy including changes in labour force, social security payments and healthcare costs averted. Results suggest that for all scenarios the financial impacts of the health co-benefits will be positive and increased active travel in particular is likely to make a substantial contribution, largely due to health care costs averted. Strategies to reduce GHG emissions and improve health are likely to result in substantial and increasing positive contributions to the economy which may offset some potential economic costs and thereby be seen more favourably in times of economic austerity

Twitter: a useful tool for studying elections?

The 2015 General Election in the UK was the first to take place in the UK with Twitter as an important part of the social media landscape. This pilot project looked at 16 constituencies along England’s South Coast in order to investigate what impact, if any, Twitter had had on the campaign and the result and to investigate the efficacy, or otherwise, of using Twitter as a tool for studying election campaigns in terms of candidate and local party activism. On the basis of an analysis of almost half a million tweets the analysis concluded that there appeared to be a correlation between the rate at which parties and/or candidates responded to incoming tweets and their relative electoral performance but this was not demonstrable for all parties (it applied in particular to Labour and UKIP candidates). In addition, high rates of reply also appeared to have a positive impact on constituency turnout figures. The findings are not yet conclusive but suggest that Twitter could be a good indicator of general levels of local party activism. The research also sought to understand how candidates used Twitter differently and established a number of candidate ‘classifiers’. It also investigated the issues agenda that was dominating Twitter conversations during the campaign and found that Twitter’s agenda was closer to the public’s than was that of the national media. The research also monitored the regional and local media in the 16 constituencies and discovered that their issues agenda was closer still to the public’s. Overall it is difficult to conclude that Twitter had a major impact on the election campaign

Use of oral glucocorticoids and risk of skin cancer and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: a population-based case–control study

In North Jutland County, Denmark, we investigated whether use of oral glucocorticoids was associated with an increased risk of developing basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), malignant melanoma (MM), and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). From the Danish Cancer Registry we identified 5422 BCC, 935 SCC, 983 MM, and 481 NHL cases during 1989–2003. Using risk-set sampling we selected four age- and gender-matched population controls for each case from the Civil Registration System. Prescriptions for oral glucocorticoids before diagnosis were obtained from the Prescription Database of North Jutland County on the basis of National Health Service data. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs), adjusting for chronic medical diseases (information about these were obtained from the National Patient Registry) and use of other immunosuppressants. We found slightly elevated risk estimates for BCC (IRR, 1.15 (95% CI: 1.07–1.25)), SCC (IRR, 1.14 (95% CI: 0.94–1.39)), MM (IRR, 1.15 (95% CI: 0.94–1.41), and NHL (IRR, 1.11 (95% CI: 0.85–1.46)) among users of oral glucocorticoids. Our study supports an overall association between glucocorticoid use and risk of BCC that cannot be explained by the presence of chronic diseases or concomitant use of other immunosuppressants

Haptoglobin Phenotype, Preeclampsia Risk and the Efficacy of Vitamin C and E Supplementation to Prevent Preeclampsia in a Racially Diverse Population

Haptoglobin's (Hp) antioxidant and pro-angiogenic properties differ between the 1-1, 2-1, and 2-2 phenotypes. Hp phenotype affects cardiovascular disease risk and treatment response to antioxidant vitamins in some non-pregnant populations. We previously demonstrated that preeclampsia risk was doubled in white Hp 2-1 women, compared to Hp 1-1 women. Our objectives were to determine whether we could reproduce this finding in a larger cohort, and to determine whether Hp phenotype influences lack of efficacy of antioxidant vitamins in preventing preeclampsia and serious complications of pregnancy-associated hypertension (PAH). This is a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial in which 10,154 low-risk women received daily vitamin C and E, or placebo, from 9-16 weeks gestation until delivery. Hp phenotype was determined in the study prediction cohort (n = 2,393) and a case-control cohort (703 cases, 1,406 controls). The primary outcome was severe PAH, or mild or severe PAH with elevated liver enzymes, elevated serum creatinine, thrombocytopenia, eclampsia, fetal growth restriction, medically indicated preterm birth or perinatal death. Preeclampsia was a secondary outcome. Odds ratios were estimated by logistic regression. Sampling weights were used to reduce bias from an overrepresentation of women with preeclampsia or the primary outcome. There was no relationship between Hp phenotype and the primary outcome or preeclampsia in Hispanic, white/other or black women. Vitamin supplementation did not reduce the risk of the primary outcome or preeclampsia in women of any phenotype. Supplementation increased preeclampsia risk (odds ratio 3.30; 95% confidence interval 1.61-6.82, p<0.01) in Hispanic Hp 2-2 women. Hp phenotype does not influence preeclampsia risk, or identify a subset of women who may benefit from vitamin C and E supplementation to prevent preeclampsia

Use of photosensitising diuretics and risk of skin cancer: a population-based case–control study

Diuretics have photosensitising properties. However, little is known about how these diuretics affect the risk of skin cancers. In North Jutland County, Denmark, we investigated whether the use of photosensitising diuretics was associated with an increased risk for developing basal cell carcinoma (BCC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and malignant melanoma (MM). From the cancer registry, we identified primary cases of BCC, SCC and MM during the period of 1989–2003. We selected four population controls for each case from the Danish Civil Registration System, matched on age and gender. Prescriptions for photosensitising diuretics before cancer diagnosis were ascertained in the county's Prescription Database. We used conditional logistic regression to compute incidence rate ratio (IRR), controlling for the chronic medical conditions and for the previous use of oral glucocorticoids. We found an increased risk of SCC (IRR of 1.79 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.45–2.21)) and MM (IRR of 1.43 (95% CI: 1.09–1.88)) among users of combined amiloride and hydrochlorothiazide therapy. An increased risk of MM (IRR of 3.30 (95% CI: 1.34–8.10)) was found among users of indapamide. We found little associations with risk of BCC. Our findings provide evidence that the use of some photosensitising diuretics is associated with an increased risk for SCC and MM

Sozialstaatliche Kürzungspolitik in Deutschland: Nur eine Mär? Eine quantitative Gesetzgebungsanalyse 1974–2014

Quantitative analyses on welfare state dynamics have to cope with the “dependent variable problem”, as studies on social spending reach different conclusions than analyses of replacement rate data. This article suggests a way around this problem by presenting results from a fine-grained analysis of welfare state legislation in Germany between 1974 and 2014. We show that the German welfare state has seen both cuts and expansions occur in all decades. Moreover, we show by means of a regression analysis that partisan politics play a role. Supporting the “Nixon-in-China”-thesis, social democratic governments are associated with a higher probability of cutbacks – especially in times of budgetary pressure – whereas expansions are more likely under Christian democratic governments