Predicting mortality of residents at admission to nursing home: A longitudinal cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>An increasing numbers of deaths occur in nursing homes. Knowledge of the course of development over the years in death rates and predictors of mortality is important for officials responsible for organizing care to be able to ensure that staff is knowledgeable in the areas of care needed. The aim of this study was to investigate the time from residents' admission to Icelandic nursing homes to death and the predictive power of demographic variables, health status (health stability, pain, depression and cognitive performance) and functional profile (ADL and social engagement) for 3-year mortality in yearly cohorts from 1996-2006.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The samples consisted of residents (N = 2206) admitted to nursing homes in Iceland in 1996-2006, who were assessed once at baseline with a Minimum Data Set (MDS) within 90 days of their admittance to the nursing home. The follow-up time for survival of each cohort was 36 months from admission. Based on Kaplan-Meier analysis (log rank test) and non-parametric correlation analyses (Spearman's rho), variables associated with survival time with a p-value < 0.05 were entered into a multivariate Cox regression model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The median survival time was 31 months, and no significant difference was detected in the mortality rate between cohorts. Age, gender (HR 1.52), place admitted from (HR 1.27), ADL functioning (HR 1.33-1.80), health stability (HR 1.61-16.12) and ability to engage in social activities (HR 1.51-1.65) were significant predictors of mortality. A total of 28.8% of residents died within a year, 43.4% within two years and 53.1% of the residents died within 3 years.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It is noteworthy that despite financial constraints, the mortality rate did not change over the study period. Health stability was a strong predictor of mortality, in addition to ADL performance. Considering these variables is thus valuable when deciding on the type of service an elderly person needs. The mortality rate showed that more than 50% died within 3 years, and almost a third of the residents may have needed palliative care within a year of admission. Considering the short survival time from admission, it seems relevant that staff is trained in providing palliative care as much as restorative care.</p

Tamara Grigorieva as The Siren (leaning centre), David Lichine as The Prodigal Son (centre leaning backwards), and artists of the company, in Le fils prodigue, Covent Garden Russian Ballet, Australian tour, His Majesty's Theatre, Melbourne, March 1939 [picture] /

Also performed 11-12 April 1939.; From: Le fils prodigue (The prodigal son) : scene in three tableaux / music by Sergey Prokofiev.; Inscription: "2F/19".; Part of the collection: Hugh P. Hall collection of photographs, 1938-1940.; Choreography by David Lichine ; scenery and costumes by Georges Roualt ; scenery executed by Prince A. Schervachidze ; costumes executed by V. Soudeikine.; Also available in an electronic version via the Internet at: http://nla.gov.au/nla.pic-vn4175202. One of a collection of photographs taken by Hugh P. Hall of 28 ballet productions performed by the Covent Garden Russian Ballet (toured Australia 1938-1939) and the Original Ballet Russe (toured Australia 1939-1940). These are the second and third of the three Ballets Russes companies which toured Australasia between 1936 and 1940. The photographs were taken from the auditorium during a live performance in His Majesty's Theatre, Melbourne and mounted on cardboard for display purposes. For conservation and storage, the photographs have been demounted. The original arrangement of the photographs has been recorded, and details are available from the Pictures Branch of the National Library

Admission profile is predictive of outcome in acute hospital care

To access publisher full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links fieldBACKGROUND AND AIMS: The purpose of this study is to describe predictors for discharge and one-year outcomes of acute-care hospital patients, 75 years of age or over, based on admission status information. We carried out a prospective study of a randomly selected patient population, from one urban acute-care hospital in each of the Nordic countries. 763 persons aged 75+ were randomly selected from acute admissions to the participating hospitals. 749 observations at discharge and 655 observations at one year were used in analyses. METHODS: Data were collected with the MDS-AC 1.1 instrument within 24 hours of admission, and at day 7 or discharge, whichever came first. Outcome information was collected either by interviewing the patient or from patient records or registers. Discharge and one-year outcome (home, institution, death) were modeled by multinomial logistic regression, with admission status variables as predictors. RESULTS: At discharge, 84% of subjects returned home, 11% went to an institution and 5.6% had died. At one year, 64% were still living at home, 24% had died, and 12% had moved to an institution. For discharge outcome, those having hospital admission due to a new problem or exacerbation of an old one had a higher risk of dying (OR 3.3) than returning home. Moderate to severe cognitive problems predicted death (OR 2.2) and institutionalization (OR 8.6) compared with discharge home. Problems in instrumental activities of daily living predicted death (OR 3.1) and institutionalization (OR 6.0). At one year, those with exacerbation of an old problem (OR 2.1) or with a new or exacerbated existing problem (OR 2.3) had a higher risk of dying than of institutionalization or discharge home. Having some cognitive problems (OR 2.8) or moderate to severe cognitive problems (OR 6.6) predicted institutionalization, but not dying or discharge home. Those with some problems in activities of daily living had a higher risk of both dying (OR 1.7) and of institutional care (OR 2.7). Those with moderate to severe problems in activities of daily living had also a higher risk of institutional care (OR 4.7) compared with those living at home. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence predictive of discharge and one-year outcomes in older acute hospital medical care patients seems to be visible from the beginning of the hospital stay. In order to increase the efficient use of health care services and quality of care, systematic standardized and streamlined assessment should be performed during the admission process

Admission profile is predictive of outcome in acute hospital care

To access publisher full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links fieldBACKGROUND AND AIMS: The purpose of this study is to describe predictors for discharge and one-year outcomes of acute-care hospital patients, 75 years of age or over, based on admission status information. We carried out a prospective study of a randomly selected patient population, from one urban acute-care hospital in each of the Nordic countries. 763 persons aged 75+ were randomly selected from acute admissions to the participating hospitals. 749 observations at discharge and 655 observations at one year were used in analyses. METHODS: Data were collected with the MDS-AC 1.1 instrument within 24 hours of admission, and at day 7 or discharge, whichever came first. Outcome information was collected either by interviewing the patient or from patient records or registers. Discharge and one-year outcome (home, institution, death) were modeled by multinomial logistic regression, with admission status variables as predictors. RESULTS: At discharge, 84% of subjects returned home, 11% went to an institution and 5.6% had died. At one year, 64% were still living at home, 24% had died, and 12% had moved to an institution. For discharge outcome, those having hospital admission due to a new problem or exacerbation of an old one had a higher risk of dying (OR 3.3) than returning home. Moderate to severe cognitive problems predicted death (OR 2.2) and institutionalization (OR 8.6) compared with discharge home. Problems in instrumental activities of daily living predicted death (OR 3.1) and institutionalization (OR 6.0). At one year, those with exacerbation of an old problem (OR 2.1) or with a new or exacerbated existing problem (OR 2.3) had a higher risk of dying than of institutionalization or discharge home. Having some cognitive problems (OR 2.8) or moderate to severe cognitive problems (OR 6.6) predicted institutionalization, but not dying or discharge home. Those with some problems in activities of daily living had a higher risk of both dying (OR 1.7) and of institutional care (OR 2.7). Those with moderate to severe problems in activities of daily living had also a higher risk of institutional care (OR 4.7) compared with those living at home. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence predictive of discharge and one-year outcomes in older acute hospital medical care patients seems to be visible from the beginning of the hospital stay. In order to increase the efficient use of health care services and quality of care, systematic standardized and streamlined assessment should be performed during the admission process