Station-Keeping Requirements for Constellations of Free-Flying Collectors Used for Astronomical Imaging in Space

The accuracy requirements on station-keeping for constellations of free-flying collectors coupled as (future) imaging arrays in space for astrophysics applications are examined. The basic imaging element of these arrays is the two-element interferometer. Accurate knowledge of two quantities is required: the \textit{projected baseline length}, which is the distance between the two interferometer elements projected on the plane tranverse to the line of sight to the target; and the \textit{optical path difference}, which is the difference in the distances from that transverse plane to the beam combiner. ``Rules-of-thumb'' are determined for the typical accuracy required on these parameters. The requirement on the projected baseline length is a \textit{knowledge} requirement and depends on the angular size of the targets of interest; it is generally at a level of half a meter for typical stellar targets, decreasing to perhaps a few centimeters only for the widest attainable fields of view. The requirement on the optical path difference is a \textit{control} requirement and is much tighter, depending on the bandwidth of the signal; it is at a level of half a wavelength for narrow (few %) signal bands, decreasing to $\approx 0.2 \lambda$ for the broadest bandwidths expected to be useful. Translation of these requirements into engineering requirements on station-keeping accuracy depends on the specific details of the collector constellation geometry. Several examples are provided to guide future application of the criteria presented here. Some implications for the design of such collector constellations and for the methods used to transform the information acquired into images are discussed.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures, accepted 6/29/07 for the August 2007 issue of PAS

Displacement- and Timing-Noise Free Gravitational-Wave Detection

Motivated by a recently-invented scheme of displacement-noise-free gravitational-wave detection, we demonstrate the existence of gravitational-wave detection schemes insusceptible to both displacement and timing (laser) noises, and are thus realizable by shot-noise-limited laser interferometry. This is possible due to two reasons: first, gravitational waves and displacement disturbances contribute to light propagation times in different manners; second, for an N-detector system, the number of signal channels is of the order O(N^2), while the total number of timing- and displacement-noise channels is of the order O(N).Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures; mistake correcte

Boundary crossing Random Walks, clinical trials and multinomial sequential estimation

A sufficient condition for the uniqueness of multinomial sequential unbiased estimators is provided generalizing a classical result for binomial samples. Unbiased estimators are applied to infer the parameters of multidimensional or multinomial Random Walks which are observed until they reach a boundary. An application to clinical trials is presented

The outcomes of revision surgery for a failed ankle arthroplasty

Aims Revision rates for ankle arthroplasties are higher than hip or knee arthroplasties. When a total ankle arthroplasty (TAA) fails, it can either undergo revision to another ankle replacement, revision of the TAA to ankle arthrodesis (fusion), or amputation. Currently there is a paucity of literature on the outcomes of these revisions. The aim of this meta-analysis is to assess the outcomes of revision TAA with respect to surgery type, functional outcomes, and reoperations. Methods A systematic review was conducted using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. PubMed, Medline, Embase, Cinahl, and Cochrane reviews were searched for relevant papers. Papers analyzing surgical treatment for failed ankle arthroplasties were included. All papers were reviewed by two authors. Overall, 34 papers met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of proportions was performed. Results Six papers analyzed all-cause reoperations of revision ankle arthroplasties, and 14 papers analyzed failures of conversion of a TAA to fusion. It was found that 26.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 15.4% to 40.1%) of revision ankle arthroplasties required further surgical intervention and 13.0% (95% CI 4.9% to 23.4%) of conversion to fusions; 14.4% (95% CI 8.4% to 21.4%) of revision ankle arthroplasties failed and 8% (95% CI 4% to 13%) of conversion to fusions failed. Conclusion Revision of primary TAA can be an effective procedure with improved functional outcomes, but has considerable risks of failure and reoperation, especially in those with periprosthetic joint infection. In those who undergo conversion of TAA to fusion, there are high rates of nonunion. Further comparative studies are required to compare both operative technique

Costs and Treatment Pathways for Type 2 Diabetes in the UK:A Mastermind Cohort Study

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.INTRODUCTION: Medication therapy for type 2 diabetes has become increasingly complex, and there are few reliable data on the current state of clinical practice. We report treatment pathways and associated costs of medication therapy for people with type 2 diabetes in the UK, their variability and changes over time. METHODS: Prescription and biomarker data for 7159 people with type 2 diabetes were extracted from the GoDARTS cohort study, covering the period 1989-2013. Average follow-up was 10 years. Individuals were prescribed on average 2.4 (SD: 1.2) drugs with average annual costs of £241. We calculated summary statistics for first- and second-line therapies. Linear regression models were used to estimate associations between therapy characteristics and baseline patient characteristics. RESULTS: Average time from diagnosis to first prescription was 3 years (SD: 4.0 years). Almost all first-line therapy (98%) was monotherapy, with average annual cost of £83 (SD: £204) for 3.8 (SD: 3.5) years. Second-line therapy was initiated in 73% of all individuals, at an average annual cost of £219 (SD: £305). Therapies involving insulin were markedly more expensive than other common therapies. Baseline HbA1c was unrelated to future therapy costs, but higher average HbA1c levels over time were associated with higher costs. CONCLUSIONS: Medication therapy has undergone substantial changes during the period covered in this study. For example, therapy is initiated earlier and is less expensive than in the past. The data provided in this study will prove useful for future modelling studies, e.g. of stratified treatment approaches.The authors gratefully acknowledge funding by the Medical Research Council (MRC) and the Association of the British Pharma Industry (ABPI) for “Mastermind” (MRC APBI STratification and Extreme Response Mechanism IN Diabetes–MASTERMIND. Grant Ref.: MRIK005707/1). ERP holds Wellcome Trust New Investigator award 102820/Z/13/Z. GoDARTS was funded by the Wellcome Trust as the Wellcome Trust Type 2 diabetes case control study

Electronic and geometric structure of transition-metal nanoclusters

A massively-parallel ab initio computer code, which uses Gaussian bases, pseudopotentials, and the local density approximation, permits the study of transition-metal systems with literally hundreds of atoms. We present total energies and relaxed geometries for Ru, Pd, and Ag clusters with N = 55, 135, and 140 atoms; we also used the DMOL code to study 13-atom Pd and Cu clusters, with and without hydrogen. The N = 55 and 135 clusters were chosen because of simultaneous cubo-octahedral (fcc) and icosahedral (icos) sub-shell closings, and we find icos geometries are preferred. Remarkably large compressions of the central atoms are observed for the icos structures (up to 6% compared with bulk interatomic spacings), while small core compressions ({approx} 1 %) are found for the fcc geometry. In contrast, large surface compressive relaxations are found for the fcc clusters ({approx} 2-3% in average nearest neighbor spacing), while the icos surface displays small compressions ({approx} 1%). Energy differences between icos and fcc are smallest for Pd, and for all systems the single-particle densities of states closely resembles bulk results. Calculations with N = 134 suggest slow changes in relative energy with N. Noting that the 135-atom fcc has a much more open surface than the icos, we also compare N = 140 icos and fcc, the latter forming an octahedron with close packed facets. These icos and fcc clusters have identical average coordinations and the octahedron is found to be preferred for Ru and Pd but not for Ag. Finally, we compare Harris functional and LDA energy differences on the N = 140 clusters, and find fair agreement only for Ag

The last gasps of VY CMa: Aperture synthesis and adaptive optics imagery

We present new observations of the red supergiant VY CMa at 1.25 micron, 1.65 micron, 2.26 micron, 3.08 micron and 4.8 micron. Two complementary observational techniques were utilized: non-redundant aperture masking on the 10-m Keck-I telescope yielding images of the innermost regions at unprecedented resolution, and adaptive optics imaging on the ESO 3.6-m telescope at La Silla attaining extremely high (~10^5) peak-to-noise dynamic range over a wide field. For the first time the inner dust shell has been resolved in the near-infrared to reveal a one-sided extension of circumstellar emission within 0.1" (~15 R_star) of the star. The line-of-sight optical depths of the circumstellar dust shell at 1.65 micron, 2.26 micron, and 3.08 micron have been estimated to be 1.86 +/- 0.42, 0.85 +/- 0.20, and 0.44 +/- 0.11. These new results allow the bolometric luminosity of VY~CMa to be estimated independent of the dust shell geometry, yielding L_star ~ 2x10^5 L_sun. A variety of dust condensations, including a large scattering plume and a bow-shaped dust feature, were observed in the faint, extended nebula up to 4" from the central source. While the origin of the nebulous plume remains uncertain, a geometrical model is developed assuming the plume is produced by radially-driven dust grains forming at a rotating flow insertion point with a rotational period between 1200-4200 years, which is perhaps the stellar rotational period or the orbital period of an unseen companion.Comment: 25 pages total with 1 table and 5 figures. Accepted by Astrophysical Journal (to appear in February 1999

The HgMn Binary Star Phi Herculis: Detection and Properties of the Secondary and Revision of the Elemental Abundances of the Primary

Observations of the Mercury-Manganese star Phi Herculis with the Navy Prototype Optical Interferometer (NPOI) conclusively reveal the previously unseen companion in this single-lined binary system. The NPOI data were used to predict a spectral type of A8V for the secondary star Phi Her B. This prediction was subsequently confirmed by spectroscopic observations obtained at the Dominion Astrophysical Observatory. Phi Her B is rotating at 50 +/-3 km/sec, in contrast to the 8 km/sec lines of Phi Her A. Recognizing the lines from the secondary permits one to separate them from those of the primary. The abundance analysis of Phi Her A shows an abundance pattern similar to those of other HgMn stars with Al being very underabundant and Sc, Cr, Mn, Zn, Ga, Sr, Y, Zr, Ba, Ce, and Hg being very overabundant.Comment: Accepted to ApJ, 45 pages, 11 figure

Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation