37 research outputs found

    A climatology of Mediterranean cyclones and compound weather extremes

    Get PDF
    Mediterranean cyclones are the main driver of surface weather extremes in the Mediterranean region. In this work we establish a new procedure for the attribution of different types of meteorological extremes to Mediterranean cyclones, where we also distinguish the presence of different airflows (warm conveyor belts, dry intrusions) and fronts composing the structure of a cyclone. We apply the procedure to a dataset of rain-wind and wave-wind compound extremes extracted from ERA5 reanalysis in a recent climatological period, and show that the majority of weather compounds occurring in the Mediterranean area is indeed linked to the presence of a nearby cyclone. The association of compound rain-wind events with Mediterranean cyclones locally surpasses an 80% level, while interesting differences between transition seasons and winter are detected. Winter cyclones - generally stronger, larger and distinctively baroclinic - are associated with a higher compound density. The de-construction of the cyclone in airflows and fronts evidences a strong association of rain-wind compounds with regions of warm conveyor belt ascent, and of wave-wind compounds with regions of dry intrusion outflow

    Compounding heatwave-extreme rainfall events driven by fronts, high moisture, and atmospheric instability

    Get PDF
    Heatwaves have been shown to increase the likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall occurring immediately afterward, potentially leading to increased flood risk. However, the exact mechanisms connecting heatwaves to extreme rainfall remain poorly understood. In this study, we use weather type data sets for Australia and Europe to identify weather patterns, including fronts, cyclones, and thunderstorm conditions, associated with heatwave terminations and following extreme rainfall events. We further analyze, using reanalysis data, how atmospheric instability and moisture availability change before and after the heatwave termination depending on whether the heatwave is followed by extreme rainfall, as well as the location of the heatwave. We find that most heatwaves terminate during thunderstorm and/or frontal conditions. Additionally, atmospheric instability and moisture availability increase several days before the heatwave termination; but only if heatwaves are followed by extreme rainfall. We also find that atmospheric instability and moisture after a heatwave are significantly higher than expected from climatology for the same time of the year, and that highest values of instability and moisture are associated with highest post-heatwave rainfall intensities. We conclude that the joint presence of high atmospheric instability, moisture, as well as frontal systems are likely to explain why rainfall is generally more extreme and likely after heatwaves, as well as why this compound hazard is mainly found in the non-arid mid and high latitudes. An improved understanding of the drivers of these compound events will help assess potential changing impacts in the future

    Quantifying causal teleconnections to drought and fire risks in Indonesian Borneo

    Get PDF
    Fires occurring over the peatlands in Indonesian Borneo accompanied by droughts have posed devastating impacts on human health, livelihoods, economy and the natural environment, and their prevention requires comprehensive understanding of climate-associated risk. Although it is widely known that the droughts are associated with El Niño events, the onset process of El Niño and thus the drought precursors and their possible changes under the future climate are not clearly understood. Here, we use a causal network approach to quantify the strength of teleconnections to droughts at a seasonal timescale shown in observations and climate models. We portray two drivers of June-July-August (JJA) droughts identified through literature review and causal analysis, namely Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) in JJA (El Niño Southern Oscillation [abbreviated as ENSO]) and SST anomaly over the eastern North Pacific to the east of the Hawaiian Islands (abbreviated as Pacific SST) in March-April-May (MAM) period. We argue that the droughts are strongly linked to ENSO variability, with drier years corresponding to El Niño conditions. The droughts can be predicted with a lead time of 3 months based on their associations with Pacific SST, with higher SST preceding drier conditions. We find that under the SSP585 scenario, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensembles show significant increase in both the maximum number of consecutive dry days in the Indonesian Borneo region in JJA (p = 0.006) and its linear association with Pacific SST in MAM (p = 0.001) from year 2061 to 2100 compared with the historical baseline. Some models are showing unrealistic amounts of JJA rainfall and underestimate drought risks in Indonesian Borneo and their teleconnections, owing to the underestimation of ENSO amplitude and overestimation of local convections. Our study strengthens the possibility of early warning triggers of fires and stresses the need for taking enhanced climate risk into consideration when formulating long-term policies to eliminate fires

    Pan-Cancer Analysis of lncRNA Regulation Supports Their Targeting of Cancer Genes in Each Tumor Context

    Get PDF
    Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are commonly dys-regulated in tumors, but only a handful are known toplay pathophysiological roles in cancer. We inferredlncRNAs that dysregulate cancer pathways, onco-genes, and tumor suppressors (cancer genes) bymodeling their effects on the activity of transcriptionfactors, RNA-binding proteins, and microRNAs in5,185 TCGA tumors and 1,019 ENCODE assays.Our predictions included hundreds of candidateonco- and tumor-suppressor lncRNAs (cancerlncRNAs) whose somatic alterations account for thedysregulation of dozens of cancer genes and path-ways in each of 14 tumor contexts. To demonstrateproof of concept, we showed that perturbations tar-geting OIP5-AS1 (an inferred tumor suppressor) andTUG1 and WT1-AS (inferred onco-lncRNAs) dysre-gulated cancer genes and altered proliferation ofbreast and gynecologic cancer cells. Our analysis in-dicates that, although most lncRNAs are dysregu-lated in a tumor-specific manner, some, includingOIP5-AS1, TUG1, NEAT1, MEG3, and TSIX, synergis-tically dysregulate cancer pathways in multiple tumorcontexts

    Genomic, Pathway Network, and Immunologic Features Distinguishing Squamous Carcinomas

    Get PDF
    This integrated, multiplatform PanCancer Atlas study co-mapped and identified distinguishing molecular features of squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) from five sites associated with smokin

    Pan-cancer Alterations of the MYC Oncogene and Its Proximal Network across the Cancer Genome Atlas

    Get PDF
    Although theMYConcogene has been implicated incancer, a systematic assessment of alterations ofMYC, related transcription factors, and co-regulatoryproteins, forming the proximal MYC network (PMN),across human cancers is lacking. Using computa-tional approaches, we define genomic and proteo-mic features associated with MYC and the PMNacross the 33 cancers of The Cancer Genome Atlas.Pan-cancer, 28% of all samples had at least one ofthe MYC paralogs amplified. In contrast, the MYCantagonists MGA and MNT were the most frequentlymutated or deleted members, proposing a roleas tumor suppressors.MYCalterations were mutu-ally exclusive withPIK3CA,PTEN,APC,orBRAFalterations, suggesting that MYC is a distinct onco-genic driver. Expression analysis revealed MYC-associated pathways in tumor subtypes, such asimmune response and growth factor signaling; chro-matin, translation, and DNA replication/repair wereconserved pan-cancer. This analysis reveals insightsinto MYC biology and is a reference for biomarkersand therapeutics for cancers with alterations ofMYC or the PMN
    corecore