Abandon Statistical Significance

We discuss problems the null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) paradigm poses for replication and more broadly in the biomedical and social sciences as well as how these problems remain unresolved by proposals involving modified p-value thresholds, confidence intervals, and Bayes factors. We then discuss our own proposal, which is to abandon statistical significance. We recommend dropping the NHST paradigm--and the p-value thresholds intrinsic to it--as the default statistical paradigm for research, publication, and discovery in the biomedical and social sciences. Specifically, we propose that the p-value be demoted from its threshold screening role and instead, treated continuously, be considered along with currently subordinate factors (e.g., related prior evidence, plausibility of mechanism, study design and data quality, real world costs and benefits, novelty of finding, and other factors that vary by research domain) as just one among many pieces of evidence. We have no desire to "ban" p-values or other purely statistical measures. Rather, we believe that such measures should not be thresholded and that, thresholded or not, they should not take priority over the currently subordinate factors. We also argue that it seldom makes sense to calibrate evidence as a function of p-values or other purely statistical measures. We offer recommendations for how our proposal can be implemented in the scientific publication process as well as in statistical decision making more broadly

Whirl Flutter and the Development of the NASA X-57 Maxwell

The X-57 Maxwell is NASAs all-electric demonstration vehicle. The primary demonstration objective of this flight test program is to show a factor of five reduction in energy consumption. The vehicle includes two large wing tip propellers designed to provide propul- sion at cruise conditions and twelve leading edge propellers designed to operate at high lift conditions. The first configuration of the vehicle that will be flight tested has the large wing tip propellers relocated to an inboard wing station. A simplified structural dynamic model of the propulsion system has been generated and coupled with a beam model of the vehicle. Whirl flutter analyses have been performed, examining the stability of the isolated propulsion system and coupled to the beam model of the vehicle. Trimmed flight scenarios for the vehicle include straight and level flight and zero power windmilling conditions. The whirl flutter analyses for this configuration indicate that the configuration will be free of whirl flutter within the required flight envelope

A framework for extension studies using real-world data to examine long-term safety and effectiveness

Understanding the long-term benefits and risks of treatments, devices, and vaccines is critically important for individual- and population-level healthcare decision-making. Extension studies, or \u27roll-over studies,\u27 are studies that allow for patients participating in a parent clinical trial to \u27roll-over\u27 into a subsequent related study to continue to observe and measure long-term safety, tolerability, and/or effectiveness. These designs are not new and are often used as an approach to satisfy regulatory post-approval safety requirements. However, designs using traditional clinical trial infrastructure can be expensive and burdensome to conduct, particularly, when following patients for many years post trial completion. Given the increasing availability and access of real-world data (RWD) sources, direct-to-patient technologies, and novel real-world study designs, there are more cost-efficient approaches to conducting extension studies while assessing important long-term outcomes. Here, we describe various fit-for-purpose design options for extension studies, discuss related methodological considerations, and provide scientific and operational guidance on practices when planning to conduct an extension study using RWD. This manuscript is endorsed by the International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE)

Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) In Information Systems Research: Status Quo, Guidelines, and Future Directions

Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) allows researchers to study how configurations of conditions lead to outcomes and, thereby, richly explain the dynamics of complex digital phenomena. To advance discussion on QCA in the information systems (IS) discipline, we introduce its fundamental concepts and offer guidelines for authors on how to apply QCA to advance IS research. We also provide checklists for reviewers of QCA papers. We illustrate how to apply our guidelines through two exemplar studies. In the first exemplar study, we focus on IT-business strategic alignment to study the influence that different forms of alignment have on firm performance. In the second exemplar study, we use the perspective of the integrated technology acceptance model to explain an individual’s intention to use a digital assistant. The contrasting results from both studies highlight how to use QCA to derive robust and reproducible results. By doing so, we contribute to encouraging IS scholars to use QCA to develop sophisticated models that accurately depict real-world IS phenomena

Transient absorption and reshaping of ultrafast XUV light by laser-dressed helium

We present a theoretical study of transient absorption and reshaping of extreme ultraviolet (XUV) pulses by helium atoms dressed with a moderately strong infrared (IR) laser field. We formulate the atomic response using both the frequency-dependent absorption cross section and a time-frequency approach based on the time-dependent dipole induced by the light fields. The latter approach can be used in cases when an ultrafast dressing pulse induces transient effects, and/or when the atom exchanges energy with multiple frequency components of the XUV field. We first characterize the dressed atom response by calculating the frequency-dependent absorption cross section for XUV energies between 20 and 24 eV for several dressing wavelengths between 400 and 2000 nm and intensities up to 10^12 W/cm^2. We find that for dressing wavelengths near 1600 nm, there is an Autler-Townes splitting of the 1s ---> 2p transition that can potentially lead to transparency for absorption of XUV light tuned to this transition. We study the effect of this XUV transparency in a macroscopic helium gas by incorporating the time-frequency approach into a solution of the coupled Maxwell-Schr\"odinger equations. We find rich temporal reshaping dynamics when a 61 fs XUV pulse resonant with the 1s ---> 2p transition propagates through a helium gas dressed by an 11 fs, 1600 nm laser pulse.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, RevTeX4, revise

Exposure to Household Air Pollution from Biomass Cookstoves and Blood Pressure Among Women in Rural Honduras: A Cross‐Sectional Study

Growing evidence links household air pollution exposure from biomass cookstoves with elevated blood pressure. We assessed cross‐sectional associations of 24‐hour mean concentrations of personal and kitchen fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), and stove type with blood pressure, adjusting for confounders, among 147 women using traditional or cleaner‐burning Justa stoves in Honduras. We investigated effect modification by age and body mass index. Traditional stove users had mean (standard deviation) personal and kitchen 24‐hour PM2.5 concentrations of 126 μg/m3 (77) and 360 μg/m3 (374), while Justa stove users’ exposures were 66 μg/m3 (38) and 137 μg/m3(194), respectively. BC concentrations were similarly lower among Justa stove users. Adjusted mean systolic blood pressure was 2.5 mm Hg higher (95% CI, 0.7‐4.3) per unit increase in natural log‐transformed kitchen PM2.5 concentration; results were stronger among women of 40 years or older (5.2 mm Hg increase, 95% CI, 2.3‐8.1). Adjusted odds of borderline high and high blood pressure (categorized) were also elevated (odds ratio = 1.5, 95% CI, 1.0‐2.3). Some results included null values and are suggestive. Results suggest that reduced household air pollution, even when concentrations exceed air quality guidelines, may help lower cardiovascular disease risk, particularly among older subgroups

Winter and Spring Water Quality of the Big Creek Watershed, Craighead County, Arkansas: Nutrients, Habitat, and Macroinvertebrates

The objective of this study was to assess the water quality of the Big Creek watershed during the winter and spring of 2002 by analyzing water physical, chemical variables, aquatic macro-invertebrates, and habitat. The Big Creek watershed, arising on Crowley\u27s Ridge in northeast Arkansas, is a small deltaic watershed and is an area of intense cultivation. Four stations, Big Creek Upper (BCU), Mud Creek (MC),Lost Creek (LC), and Big Creek Lower (BCL) were established for this study from Big Creek, Mud Creek and Lost Creek. Water samples were collected on a weekly basis for 10 weeks from January 2002 through March 2002. We analyzed these streams for temperature, pH, D.O., conductivity, TSS, chlorophyll- a, DOC, total N and P, total dissolved N and P, nitrate, ammonium, and soluble reactive phosphorus. During this time period, we also sampled aquatic macroinvertebrates and assessed stream habitat according to USEPA rapid bioassessment protocols. Overall, nutrients and TSS were high, pH fluctuated from 5.8 to 7.8, and D.O. was moderate to high, ranging from 6.75 to 13.24 mg/L. Generally, physical and chemical water variables were correlated with changes in stream discharge. For a 20-jab dip-net sample, macroinvertebrate species richness ranged from 9 to 23 taxa, while abundance ranged from 38 to 209 individuals per station. Physical habitat index scores ranged from 75 to 104 (maximum of 200) indicating marginal physical habitat. We report that this watershed has high concentrations of nutrients and suspended solids during the winter and spring wet season and that the macroinvertebrate communities are influenced by stream conditions, including marginal physical habitat

A Detailed Observational Analysis of V1324 Sco, the Most Gamma-Ray Luminous Classical Nova to Date

It has recently been discovered that some, if not all, classical novae emit GeV gamma rays during outburst, but the mechanisms involved in the production of the gamma rays are still not well understood. We present here a comprehensive multi-wavelength dataset---from radio to X-rays---for the most gamma-ray luminous classical nova to-date, V1324 Sco. Using this dataset, we show that V1324 Sco is a canonical dusty Fe-II type nova, with a maximum ejecta velocity of 2600 km s$^{-1}$ and an ejecta mass of few $\times 10^{-5}$ M$_{\odot}$. There is also evidence for complex shock interactions, including a double-peaked radio light curve which shows high brightness temperatures at early times. To explore why V1324~Sco was so gamma-ray luminous, we present a model of the nova ejecta featuring strong internal shocks, and find that higher gamma-ray luminosities result from higher ejecta velocities and/or mass-loss rates. Comparison of V1324~Sco with other gamma-ray detected novae does not show clear signatures of either, and we conclude that a larger sample of similarly well-observed novae is needed to understand the origin and variation of gamma rays in novae.Comment: 26 pages, 13 figure