Reconstructing Magma Storage Depths for the 2018 Kı̄lauean Eruption From Melt Inclusion CO ₂ Contents: The Importance of Vapor Bubbles

The 2018 lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and the accompanying collapse of the summit caldera marked the most destructive episode of activity at Kı̄lauea Volcano in the last 200 years. The eruption was extremely well-monitored, with extensive real-time lava sampling as well as continuous geodetic data capturing the caldera collapse. This multiparameter data set provides an exceptional opportunity to determine the reservoir geometry and magma transport paths supplying Kı̄lauea’s LERZ. The forsterite contents of olivine crystals, together with the degree of major element disequilibrium with carrier melts, indicates that two distinct crystal populations were erupted from Fissure 8 (termed high- and low-Fo). Melt inclusion entrapment pressures reveal that low-Fo olivines (close to equilibrium with their carrier melts) crystallized within the Halema’uma’u reservoir (∼2-km depth), while many high-Fo olivines (>Fo81.5; far from equilibrium with their carrier melts) crystallized within the South Caldera reservoir (∼3–5-km depth). Melt inclusions in high-Fo olivines experienced extensive post-entrapment crystallization following their incorporation into cooler, more evolved melts. This favored the growth of a CO2-rich vapor bubble, containing up to 99% of the total melt inclusion CO2 budget (median = 93%). If this CO2-rich bubble is not accounted for, entrapment depths are significantly underestimated. Conversely, reconstructions using equation of state methods rather than direct measurements of vapor bubbles overestimate entrapment depths. Overall, we show that direct measurements of melts and vapor bubbles by secondary-ion mass spectrometry and Raman spectroscopy, combined with a suitable H2O-CO2 solubility model, is a powerful tool to identify the magma storage reservoirs supplying volcanic eruptions. Key Points Petrological, gaseous and geophysical observations can be reconciled by a model where Fissure 8 was supplied from two summit storage reservoirs (∼1–2- and 3–5-km depth) Extensive post-entrapment crystallization of melt inclusions within high-Fo olivines (Fo > 81.5) caused ∼90% of the CO2 to enter the vapor bubble Raman analyses of vapor bubbles combined with choice of a suitable H2O-CO2 solubility model is required to accurately determine magma storage depths Plain Language Summary Pockets of frozen magma trapped within olivine crystals, termed “melt inclusions,” can provide information about the depths at which magma is stored beneath the surface prior to a volcanic eruption. This is because the amount of CO2 and H2O that can be dissolved in a melt is dependent on the pressure, and therefore the depth. We examine melt inclusions from lava flows produced during the 2018 eruption of Kı̄lauea Volcano. Previous work, based on geophysics, has shown that magma is stored in two main reservoirs at Kı̄lauea, located at ∼1–2- and ∼3–5-km depth. However, because many melt inclusions host almost all of their CO2 within a vapor bubble, which is rarely measured, previous petrological estimates of magma storage depths at Kı̄lauea do not align with the depths of the two reservoirs identified by geophysics. In this study, we measure the amount of CO2 in the glass and the bubble using secondary-ion mass spectrometry and Raman spectroscopy, respectively. By adding these two measurements together, we can reconstruct the amount of CO2 that was present when melt inclusions were trapped. Calculated depths align remarkably well with geophysical estimates, and demonstrate that the 2018 eruption was supplied by both magma storage reservoirs

The Influence of Number and Timing of Pregnancies on Breast Cancer Risk for Women With BRCA1 or BRCA2 Mutations

Background: Full-term pregnancy (FTP) is associated with a reduced breast cancer (BC) risk over time, but women are at increased BC risk in the immediate years following an FTP. No large prospective studies, however, have examined whether the number and timing of pregnancies are associated with BC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Methods: Using weighted and time-varying Cox proportional hazards models, we investigated whether reproductive events are associated with BC risk for mutation carriers using a retrospective cohort (5707 BRCA1 and 3525 BRCA2 mutation carriers) and a prospective cohort (2276 BRCA1 and 1610 BRCA2 mutation carriers), separately for each cohort and the combined prospective and retrospective cohort. Results: For BRCA1 mutation carriers, there was no overall association with parity compared with nulliparity (combined hazard ratio [HRc] ¼ 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] ¼ 0.83 to 1.18). Relative to being uniparous, an increased number of FTPs was associated with decreased BC risk (HRc¼ 0.79, 95% CI ¼ 0.69 to 0.91; HRc¼ 0.70, 95% CI ¼ 0.59 to 0.82; HRc¼ 0.50, 95% CI ¼ 0.40 to 0.63, for 2, 3, and 4 FTPs, respectively, Ptrend < .0001) and increasing duration of breastfeeding was associated with decreased BC risk (combined cohort Ptrend ¼ .0003). Relative to being nulliparous, uniparous BRCA1 mutation carriers were at increased BC risk in the prospective analysis (prospective hazard ration [HRp] ¼ 1.69, 95% CI ¼ 1.09 to 2.62). For BRCA2 mutation carriers, being parous was associated with a 30% increase in BC risk (HRc ¼ 1.33, 95% CI ¼ 1.05 to 1.69), and there was no apparent decrease in risk associated with multiparity except for having at least 4 FTPs vs. 1 FTP (HRc¼ 0.72, 95% CI ¼ 0.54 to 0.98). Conclusions: These findings suggest differential associations with parity between BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers with higher risk for uniparous BRCA1 carriers and parous BRCA2 carriers

Search for gravitational-wave transients associated with magnetar bursts in advanced LIGO and advanced Virgo data from the third observing run

Gravitational waves are expected to be produced from neutron star oscillations associated with magnetar giant f lares and short bursts. We present the results of a search for short-duration (milliseconds to seconds) and longduration (∼100 s) transient gravitational waves from 13 magnetar short bursts observed during Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo, and KAGRA’s third observation run. These 13 bursts come from two magnetars, SGR1935 +2154 and SwiftJ1818.0−1607. We also include three other electromagnetic burst events detected by FermiGBM which were identified as likely coming from one or more magnetars, but they have no association with a known magnetar. No magnetar giant flares were detected during the analysis period. We find no evidence of gravitational waves associated with any of these 16 bursts. We place upper limits on the rms of the integrated incident gravitational-wave strain that reach 3.6 × 10−²³ Hz at 100 Hz for the short-duration search and 1.1 ×10−²² Hz at 450 Hz for the long-duration search. For a ringdown signal at 1590 Hz targeted by the short-duration search the limit is set to 2.3 × 10−²² Hz. Using the estimated distance to each magnetar, we derive upper limits upper limits on the emitted gravitational-wave energy of 1.5 × 1044 erg (1.0 × 1044 erg) for SGR 1935+2154 and 9.4 × 10^43 erg (1.3 × 1044 erg) for Swift J1818.0−1607, for the short-duration (long-duration) search. Assuming isotropic emission of electromagnetic radiation of the burst fluences, we constrain the ratio of gravitational-wave energy to electromagnetic energy for bursts from SGR 1935+2154 with the available fluence information. The lowest of these ratios is 4.5 × 103

Tungsten isotopes as tracers of core-mantle interactions: The influence of subducted sediments

The postulated difference in W isotopic composition of the Earth’s core of ~2 εW units, compared to the bulk silicate earth (BSE) has previously been used to search for evidence of core–mantle interaction (CMI) in ocean island basalts (OIB). The absence of W isotope anomalies has thus been taken as evidence that CMI does not occur. However, the addition of subducted sediment with high W to the sources of OIB could obscure a core signature. This possibility brings into question the utility of W isotopes as tracers for CMI. To accurately consider the effects of sediment addition to mantle sources of OIB with respect to W requires improved constraints on the abundances of W in subducting sediment. Here, we present high-precision W abundance data (and other HFSE) for a suite of sediments from the Banda subduction regime in East Indonesia. Subducting East Indonesian sediments have trace element concentrations that resemble those of average upper continental crust (UCC), making these sediments valuable to consider as typical of subducted sediments. Average W abundances of 2.1 ppm, corrected for carbon content coupled with current models of 0.5% core addition and 1% sediment addition to EM1 or HIMU plume, suggest that a model hybrid source should exhibit values of εW = −0.24 with ~25 ppb W. Prior studies have not reported such low W isotopic compositions or high estimated W concentrations present in the sources of either Hawaiian or French Polynesian lavas, so such large additions of core material to these plume sources seems unlikely. Given these constraints, core contributions to these source, if present, can be no more than ~0.1%

Deletions of CDKN2C in multiple myeloma: biological and clinical implications

&lt;p&gt;Purpose: Deletions of chromosome 1 have been described in 7% to 40% of cases of myeloma with inconsistent clinical consequences. CDKN2C at 1p32.3 has been identified in myeloma cell lines as the potential target of the deletion. We tested the clinical impact of 1p deletion and used high-resolution techniques to define the role of CDKN2C in primary patient material.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Experimental Design: We analyzed 515 cases of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM), and newly diagnosed multiple myeloma using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) for deletions of CDKN2C. In 78 myeloma cases, we carried out Affymetrix single nucleotide polymorphism mapping and U133 Plus 2.0 expression arrays. In addition, we did mutation, methylation, and Western blotting analysis.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Results: By FISH we identified deletion of 1p32.3 (CDKN2C) in 3 of 66 MGUS (4.5%), 4 of 39 SMM (10.3%), and 55 of 369 multiple myeloma cases (15%). We examined the impact of copy number change at CDKN2C on overall survival (OS), and found that the cases with either hemizygous or homozygous deletion of CDKN2C had a worse OS compared with cases that were intact at this region (22 months versus 38 months; P = 0.003). Using gene mapping we identified three homozygous deletions at 1p32.3, containing CDKN2C, all of which lacked expression of CDKN2C. Cases with homozygous deletions of CDKN2C were the most proliferative myelomas, defined by an expression-based proliferation index, consistent with its biological function as a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: Our results suggest that deletions of CDKN2C are important in the progression and clinical outcome of myeloma.&lt;/p&gt

Which patients with venous thrombosis do not require screening for malignancy? A predictive model to identify patients with VTE at minimal risk of malignancy

Deletion of 16q (del(16q)) has been identified in 15% of newly diagnosed myeloma but the prognostic impact has not been determined. We performed FISH on CD138 selected plasma cells from 861 newly diagnosed patients with multiple myeloma from the LRF UK Myeloma Forum Cytogenetics Database. Del(16q) occurred in 168/861 cases (19.5%) and was significantly associated with deletion 13q (54.8% vs 43.5%, P50.009), deletion of IgH (19.6% vs 8.7%, Po0.001), deletion 17p (20.7% vs 7.2%, Po0.001) and nonhyperdiploid status (47.9% vs 40.3%, P50.043). Clinical and survival data was available in 505 patients. Median age was 65 years (range 33–92) and median follow-up was 19 months. Del(16q) showed no association with baseline clinical and demographic parameters but was associated with a significantly worse overall survival (median survival 36 months vs not reached, P50.025). Moreover, del(16q) conferred additional adverse impact in combination with the known poor risk cytogenetic factors t(4;14) and deletion 17p (del(17p)). Median survival for del(16q) and t(4;14) was 13 months, del (16q) alone 36 months, t(4;14) alone not reached, P50.001. Median survival for del(16q) and del(17p) was 17 months, del(16q) alone 36 months, del(17p) alone not reached, P50.003. Multivariate analysis confirmed that del(16q) retained independence as an adverse prognostic marker (P50.003) along with t(4;14), t(14;16), light chain isotype, WHO performance status, ISS and age.Integration of gene mapping with global gene expression data in a subset of 55 cases identified two potential tumour suppressor genes located on 16q, CYLD and WWOX. We have shown that loss of CYLD dysregulates the NFkB pathway and loss of WWOX dysregulates apoptosis via p73, both of crucial importance in myeloma biology. WWOX is also a common fragile site gene and deletions at other common fragile sites were identified that may also contribute to myeloma pathogenesis. An update of this mapping and expression data including the NFkB signature associated with 16q deletion will be presented