Modeling The Unemployment Rate At The Eu Level By Using Box-Jenkins Methodology

Unemployment, as a measure of market conditions, appears as a crucial economic problem and a phenomenon with considerable negative social consequences, and, as such, requires attention and adequate approach to finding solutions. Enormous unemployment rates are a reality not only in developing and transition countries, but also in some developed countries. Inadequately conducted privatization, unsuccessful transfer of workers from the public to the private sector, inefficiency in attracting foreign direct investment, and the world economic crisis of 2008 have made unemployment a universal disease of modern society. The paper presents economic models in which the unemployment rate is the central analyzed phenomenon. In this context, an important task of European economic policy-makers is to project future unemployment rates. Box-Jenkins methodology, i.e. the seasonal ARIMA model, is one approach to the modeling of time series, or, more specifically, for forecasting future values. The subject of this paper is the analysis of the evolution of the unemployment problem on the basis of the values in the period from 2000 to 2015, based on the case of 28 countries of the European Union. Building on the research subject, the purpose of the paper is to create the statistical model for forecasting the values of the monthly unemployment rates in the European Union for the future and establishing its trend. Keywords: Unemployment, labor market, Box-Jenkins methodology, the European Unio

Healthy Nutrition

Many costly and disabling conditions - cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases - are linked by common preventable risk factors. Tobacco use, prolonged, unhealthy nutrition, physical inactivity, and excessive alcohol use are major causes and risk factors for these conditions. The ongoing nutritional transition expressed through increased consumption of high fat and high salt food products will contribute to the rising burden of heart disease, stroke, obesity and diabetes. Changes in activity patterns as a consequence of the rise of motorised transport, sedentary leisure time activities such as television watching will lead to physical inactivity in all but the poorest populations. Many diseases can be prevented, yet health care systems do not make the best use of their available resources to support this process. All too often, health care workers fail to seize patient interactions as opportunities to inform patients about health promotion and disease prevention strategies. Nutrition is an input to and foundation for health and development. Interaction of infection and malnutrition is well-documented. Better nutrition means stronger immune systems, less illness and better health. Healthy children learn better. Healthy people are stronger, are more productive and more able to create opportunities to gradually break the cycles of both poverty and hunger in a sustainable way. Better nutrition is a prime entry point to ending poverty and a milestone to achieving better quality of life

Spädbarnskolik - Föräldrars upplevelser av kolikperioden samt BVC-sjuksköterskans och andra personers råd och stöd

Av alla nyfödda barn är det cirka 10 % som drabbas av spädbarnskolik, vilket är ett tillstånd som förutom barnet även påverkar hela familjen. Syftet var att belysa föräldrars upplevelser av att ha levt med ett spädbarn som haft kolik samt av BVC-sjuksköterskans och övriga personers råd och stöd under kolikperioden. Metod: åtta föräldrar till barn som haft kolik intervjuades. Kvalitativ innehållsanalys användes som analysmetod. Resultatet visade att föräldrar upplevde starka känslor som besvikelse, frustration och isolering under kolikperioden. Även besvikelse och minskad tilltro till BVC-sjuksköterskan beskrevs då ingen diagnos ställdes på barnets tillstånd samt att BVC-sjuksköterskan gav otillräckligt med stöd och råd för att underlätta kolikperioden. Som kompensation fick föräldrarna stöd och råd från släkt, vänner och internet. Studien kan bidra till att BVC-sjuksköterskor får ökad kunskap och förståelse om föräldrars upplevelser av kolikperioden för att kunna stödja och ge råd som främjar både barnets och familjens välmående

HIV/AIDS Risk Behaviours among Roma and Non-Roma Sex Workers in Belgrade (Serbia)

The aim of this cross-sectional study was to analyze differences between Roma and non-Roma sex workers (SWs) according to their HIV/AIDS risk behaviors. In this study 91 Roma and 100 non-Roma SWs were included. They offered sex services at Belgrade hot spots during the period 2006–2007. Roma SW were significantly younger and with lower education and they were significantly more often without reading and writing skills than non Roma SW. They also significantly more often had the first sexual intercourse before an age of 14 years. Roma and non-Roma SWs did not differ significantly in their risky sex behaviors. Out of all SWs (both Roma and non-Roma) 13.6% had more than 5 clients daily, 61.3% always used a condom with the commercial sex partners and 17.3% always used a condom with the steady partner. More than half of all participants (55.0%) reported daily use of some psychoactive substance. Correct answers to all 6 standardized questions regarding HIV transmission gave only 9.9% Roma and 5.0% non-Roma SW and mean scores were 2.87 for Roma and 3.03 for non-Roma SW. These differences were not significant. According to multivariate analysis, Roma SWs were significantly younger, less educated, and with more testing to HIV during life in comparison with non Roma SWs. Significantly protective determinants for Roma SWs were knowledge of reading and writing and less frequently daily using of ecstasy during last month in comparison with non Roma SWs. It is necessary to continue work on education of both Roma and non-Roma SWs and to reconsider and revise the existing prevention programs regarding their impact on HIV transmission knowledge and the respective protective behaviors

HIV/AIDS Risk Behaviours among Roma and Non-Roma Sex Workers in Belgrade (Serbia)

The aim of this cross-sectional study was to analyze differences between Roma and non-Roma sex workers (SWs) according to their HIV/AIDS risk behaviors. In this study 91 Roma and 100 non-Roma SWs were included. They offered sex services at Belgrade hot spots during the period 2006–2007. Roma SW were significantly younger and with lower education and they were significantly more often without reading and writing skills than non Roma SW. They also significantly more often had the first sexual intercourse before an age of 14 years. Roma and non-Roma SWs did not differ significantly in their risky sex behaviors. Out of all SWs (both Roma and non-Roma) 13.6% had more than 5 clients daily, 61.3% always used a condom with the commercial sex partners and 17.3% always used a condom with the steady partner. More than half of all participants (55.0%) reported daily use of some psychoactive substance. Correct answers to all 6 standardized questions regarding HIV transmission gave only 9.9% Roma and 5.0% non-Roma SW and mean scores were 2.87 for Roma and 3.03 for non-Roma SW. These differences were not significant. According to multivariate analysis, Roma SWs were significantly younger, less educated, and with more testing to HIV during life in comparison with non Roma SWs. Significantly protective determinants for Roma SWs were knowledge of reading and writing and less frequently daily using of ecstasy during last month in comparison with non Roma SWs. It is necessary to continue work on education of both Roma and non-Roma SWs and to reconsider and revise the existing prevention programs regarding their impact on HIV transmission knowledge and the respective protective behaviors

Application of Statistical Indicators for Digital Image Analysis and Segmentation in Sorting of Agriculture Products

Food processing industry is moving forward to a full automation of all processes, especially in technological line segments which represent critical control points of food safety. One of these points is color sorting by using machine vision, where inappropriate products are removed. Most important product appearance attributes are color and texture. During food processing, the product is captured by optical devices, mostly color cameras and lasers. The aim of this paper is to investigate new eligibility criteria for digital image segmentation by using only image from the camera. The goal is to describe the texture of the product, based on chosen mathematical measures, and to allow for recognition and then classification according to the predefined range of values in an appropriate class. Images of frozen raspberry were used. Image analysis of color parameters in RGB color space and statistical tests to examine normality of data were carried out. Thereafter, one-way Anova and correlation analysis was performed. Statistically significant difference was found for the values of two indicators: entropy and new criteria were derived from standard deviation, as well as mean values of pixels for every channel, and marked as L. After determining the range of these criteria, a new algorithm was developed for image segmentation written in Matlab. One of the results of applying this algorithm is that more than 80% of good products were recognized

Non-Dipping Patten of Blood Pressure and Gestational Hypertension

Gestational hypertension (GH) is one of the entities of the hypertensive disorders in pregnancy (HDP), a major cause of maternal, fetal, and neonatal morbidity and mortality. Also, the HDP have been recognized as an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. Thus, women who develop GH or preeclampsia (PE) are at increased risk of hypertension, ischemic heart disease and stroke in later life. An ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) takes an important role in diagnosing of hypertension in pregnancy. Also, it has been shown that ABPM had higher accuracy in the prediction of GH, premature childbirth and low birth weight, compared with the conventional blood pressure (BP) measurements. In addition, we have found that non-dipping pattern of BP is very highly related with worse pregnancy outcome in a term of preterm delivery and intrauterine growth restriction. Also, it is associated with worse maternal hemodynamics, more impaired systolic function and more pronounced cardiac remodeling compared to women with GH and dipping pattern of BP. This review aimed to explore the (a) current classifications of the HDP; (b) pathogenesis of GH and PE; (c) physiological changes of BP and maternal hemodynamics in pregnancy; and (d) pathophysiological changes of BP and maternal cardiac function, especially in a term on BP pattern

Healthy Nutrition

Many costly and disabling conditions - cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases - are linked by common preventable risk factors. Tobacco use, prolonged, unhealthy nutrition, physical inactivity, and excessive alcohol use are major causes and risk factors for these conditions. The ongoing nutritional transition expressed through increased consumption of high fat and high salt food products will contribute to the rising burden of heart disease, stroke, obesity and diabetes. Changes in activity patterns as a consequence of the rise of motorised transport, sedentary leisure time activities such as television watching will lead to physical inactivity in all but the poorest populations. Many diseases can be prevented, yet health care systems do not make the best use of their available resources to support this process. All too often, health care workers fail to seize patient interactions as opportunities to inform patients about health promotion and disease prevention strategies. Nutrition is an input to and foundation for health and development. Interaction of infection and malnutrition is well-documented. Better nutrition means stronger immune systems, less illness and better health. Healthy children learn better. Healthy people are stronger, are more productive and more able to create opportunities to gradually break the cycles of both poverty and hunger in a sustainable way. Better nutrition is a prime entry point to ending poverty and a milestone to achieving better quality of life

THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN MATERNAL ANTHROPOMETRY AND BLOOD PRESSURE IN PREGNANCY – RESULTS FROM THE CROATIAN ISLANDS’ BIRTH COHORT STUDY (CRIBS)

Elevated blood pressure (BP) in pregnancy, especially gestational hypertension and preeclampsia, can lead to serious pregnancy complications and adverse birth outcomes. A large body of literature already reported the effect of baseline body mass index (BMI) on changes in blood pressure during pregnancy. The aim of this study was therefore to define trajectory of systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure in 308 pregnant participants from the CRIBS study (146 from the mainland and 162 from the islands of Brač and Hvar) and to analyze the association of blood pressure with maternal BMI prior to pregnancy and maternal anthropometry during pregnancy. Pregnant women included in the CRIBS study had no history of chronic diseases. The BP of CRIBS participants was measured at least once in each trimester, and maternal pre-pregnancy weight was self-reported. All analyses were performed using SPSS 10.0. Results showed that pre-pregnancy BMI was the strongest predictor of pregnancy blood pressure. This association was evident for pre-pregnancy BMI independently (p<0.001), and it also persisted after adjusting for maternal age, education, income, parity, smoking and physical activity (p<0.05). The association between maternal anthropometry during pregnancy and blood pressure was not as strong and was therefore less informative. The study reinforces the role of BMI on SBP and DBP and highlights its importance during prenatal care monitoring. Significant association also emerged between blood pressure in pregnancy and place of residence (mainland vs. island). Women on Dalmatian islands have lower educational level, higher pre-pregnancy BMI and different levels of blood pressure than women from the mainland (namely, higher SBP and lower DBP). Such comparisons between mainland and island populations are valuable, because they can, in the long term, lead to better maternal health care on the islands