A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs

International audienceTropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the 'damage zone') enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia's Great Barrier Reef from 1985–2015 using three models – including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985–2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur

Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement

International audienceIncreasingly frequent severe coral bleaching is among the greatest threats to coral reefs posed by climate change. Global climate models (GCMs) project great spatial variation in the timing of annual severe bleaching (ASB) conditions; a point at which reefs are certain to change and recovery will be limited. However, previous model-resolution projections (~1 × 1°) are too coarse to inform conservation planning. To meet the need for higher-resolution projections, we generated statistically downscaled projections (4-km resolution) for all coral reefs; these projections reveal high local-scale variation in ASB. Timing of ASB varies >10 years in 71 of the 87 countries and territories with >500 km 2 of reef area. Emissions scenario RCP4.5 represents lower emissions mid-century than will eventuate if pledges made following the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference (COP21) become reality. These pledges do little to provide reefs with more time to adapt and acclimate prior to severe bleaching conditions occurring annually. RCP4.5 adds 11 years to the global average ASB timing when compared to RCP8.5; however, >75% of reefs still experience ASB before 2070 under RCP4.5. Coral reef futures clearly vary greatly among and within countries, indicating the projections warrant consideration in most reef areas during conservation and management planning

Overfishing and nutrient pollution interact with temperature to disrupt coral reefs down to microbial scales

Losses of corals worldwide emphasize the need to understand what drives reef decline. Stressors such as overfishing and nutrient pollution may reduce resilience of coral reefs by increasing coral?algal competition and reducing coral recruitment, growth and survivorship. Such effects may themselves develop via several mechanisms, including disruption of coral microbiomes. Here we report the results of a 3-year field experiment simulating overfishing and nutrient pollution. These stressors increase turf and macroalgal cover, destabilizing microbiomes, elevating putative pathogen loads, increasing disease more than twofold and increasing mortality up to eightfold. Above-average temperatures exacerbate these effects, further disrupting microbiomes of unhealthy corals and concentrating 80% of mortality in the warmest seasons. Surprisingly, nutrients also increase bacterial opportunism and mortality in corals bitten by parrotfish, turning normal trophic interactions deadly for corals. Thus, overfishing and nutrient pollution impact reefs down to microbial scales, killing corals by sensitizing them to predation, above-average temperatures and bacterial opportunism

Assessing relative resilience potential of coral reefs to inform management

International audienceEcological resilience assessments are an important part of resilience-based management (RBM) and can help prioritize and target management actions. Use of such assessments has been limited due to a lack of clear guidance on the assessment process. This study builds on the latest scientific advances in RBM to provide that guidance from a resilience assessment undertaken in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). We assessed spatial variation in ecological resilience potential at 78 forereef sites near the populated islands of the CNMI: Saipan, Tinian/Aguijan, and Rota. The assessments are based on measuring indicators of resilience processes and are combined with information on anthropogenic stress and larval connectivity. We find great spatial variation in relative resilience potential with many high resilience sites near Saipan (5 of 7) and low resilience sites near Rota (7 of 9). Criteria were developed to identify priority sites for six types of management actions (e.g., conservation, land-based sources of pollution reduction, and fishery management and enforcement) and 51 of the 78 sites met at least one of the sets of criteria. The connectivity simulations developed indicate that Tinian and Aguijan are each roughly 10 × the larvae source that Rota is and twice as frequent a destination. These results may explain the lower relative resilience potential of Rota reefs and indicates that actions in Saipan and Tinian/Aguijan will be important to maintaining supply of larvae. The process we describe for undertaking resilience assessments can be tailored for use in coral reef areas globally and applied to other ecosystems

No evidence for parental imprinting of mouse 22q11 gene orthologues

Non-mendelian factors may influence CNS phenotypes in patients with 22q11 deletion syndrome (22q11DS, also known as DiGeorge or Velocardiofacial Syndrome), and similar mechanisms may operate in mice carrying a deletion of one or more 22q11 gene orthologues. Accordingly, we examined the influence of parent of origin on expression of 25 murine 22q11 orthologues in the developing and mature CNS using SNP-based analysis in interspecific crosses, as well as quantification of mRNA in a murine model of 22q11DS. We found no evidence for absolute genomic imprinting or silencing. All 25 genes are biallelically expressed in the developing and adult brain. Furthermore, if more subtle forms of allelic biasing are present, they are very small in magnitude, and most likely beyond the resolution of currently available quantitative approaches. Given the high degree of similarity of human 22q11 and the orthologous region of mmChr16, genomic imprinting most likely cannot explain apparent parent-of-origin effects in 22q11DS

Transactivation of EGFR by LPS induces COX-2 expression in enterocytes

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is the leading cause of gastrointestinal morbidity and mortality in preterm infants. NEC is characterized by an exaggerated inflammatory response to bacterial flora leading to bowel necrosis. Bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS) mediates inflammation through TLR4 activation and is a key molecule in the pathogenesis of NEC. However, LPS also induces cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), which promotes intestinal barrier restitution through stimulation of intestinal cell survival, proliferation, and migration. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) activation prevents experimental NEC and may play a critical role in LPS-stimulated COX-2 production. We hypothesized that EGFR is required for LPS induction of COX-2 expression. Our data show that inhibiting EGFR kinase activity blocks LPS-induced COX-2 expression in small intestinal epithelial cells. LPS induction of COX-2 requires Src-family kinase signaling while LPS transactivation of EGFR requires matrix metalloprotease (MMP) activity. EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors block LPS stimulation of mitogen-activated protein kinase ERK, suggesting an important role of the MAPK/ERK pathway in EGFR-mediated COX-2 expression. LPS stimulates proliferation of IEC-6 cells, but this stimulation is inhibited with either the EGFR kinase inhibitor AG1478, or the selective COX-2 inhibitor Celecoxib. Taken together, these data show that EGFR plays an important role in LPS-induction of COX-2 expression in enterocytes, which may be one mechanism for EGF in inhibition of NEC

Integrated information increases with fitness in the evolution of animats

One of the hallmarks of biological organisms is their ability to integrate disparate information sources to optimize their behavior in complex environments. How this capability can be quantified and related to the functional complexity of an organism remains a challenging problem, in particular since organismal functional complexity is not well-defined. We present here several candidate measures that quantify information and integration, and study their dependence on fitness as an artificial agent ("animat") evolves over thousands of generations to solve a navigation task in a simple, simulated environment. We compare the ability of these measures to predict high fitness with more conventional information-theoretic processing measures. As the animat adapts by increasing its "fit" to the world, information integration and processing increase commensurately along the evolutionary line of descent. We suggest that the correlation of fitness with information integration and with processing measures implies that high fitness requires both information processing as well as integration, but that information integration may be a better measure when the task requires memory. A correlation of measures of information integration (but also information processing) and fitness strongly suggests that these measures reflect the functional complexity of the animat, and that such measures can be used to quantify functional complexity even in the absence of fitness data.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, one supplementary figure. Three supplementary video files available on request. Version commensurate with published text in PLoS Comput. Bio